<p>Amerikanski,</p>
<p>Your accusation that I have made a "major, major understatement" is an overstatement. I merely observed that it's harder to become a physician than a lawyer. Had I said "a little harder," you might have a beef. But a statement that x>y says only that the ratio exceeds one to one. It implies nothing about how much it exceeds it.</p>
<p>So how much harder is it to become a physician than a lawyer? Let's talk about definitions first. </p>
<p>How hard is it, for example to become a U.S. Marine? I hear boot camp is quite strenuous. At my age, it is literally impossible to become a U.S. Marine, and there are legal ceilings on such things.</p>
<p>The definition of "harder" that I was assuming relates to how much screening occurs in populating a profession.</p>
<p>More screening takes place for would-be physicians than for would-be attorneys; I wouldnt say theres "incomparably" more, however.</p>
<p>If you compare "outputs" for the attorney-screening process to the outputs of the physician screening process, the numbers are actually quite comparable: 836,156 physicians in the US (according to the AMA report entitled "Physician Characteristics and Distribution, 2003-2004"), and 1,050,000 licensed attorneys in the US, according to a December 2003 interview with the president of the ABA. There are 83% as many physicians as attorneys.</p>
<p>Now let's look at "inputs" into the screening process: a survey I saw recently stated that 7.2% of incoming freshmen at public universities listed responded "physician" when asked about their most likely future occupation, and 4.1% responded "attorney" or "judge."</p>
<p>There were 17,978 seats for first-year students in US medical schools last year, and 37,364 candidates applying for them. That means about 48% of the applicants were admitted to at least one medical school. I have seen the attrition rate described as virtually zero.</p>
<p>There were 48,132 seats for first-year students at ABA-accredited law schools last year. The figure Ive usually seen mentioned is that about 60% of the law school applicants are admitted to at least one school. The attrition rate for those who matriculate ranges from 11% to 13%. </p>
<p>The passing rate for the licensure exam for graduates of US and Canadian graduates of allopathic medical schools is typically around 94% for first-time takers, and over 50% for repeat takers. The is around 77% for first-time osteopathic graduates, and about 65% for graduates of foreign medical schools.</p>
<p>How many NEVER pass the bar?</p>
<p>According to the Law School Admission Council (LSAC) National Longitudinal Bar Passage Study, 94.8% of all graduates passed the bar within five years of the first time they took it.</p>
<p>So, in summary, there are about 1.75 college freshman who see themselves as future doctors for every one who sees himself/herself as a future lawyer.</p>
<p>A significant percentage of these fail to graduate from college at all, which constitutes the first great screening for both career paths.</p>
<p>Its true that organic chemistry constitutes another great screening on the physician track, and that there is no comparable experience for pre-law undergraduates.</p>
<p>The last great screening mechanism for would-be physicians is medical school admissions; 48% of those left make it through here. 60% of the law school applicants make it through their comparable screening.</p>
<p>And here the screening gets tougher for lawyers. Their attrition rate in law school is 11%-13%, compared to virtually zero for physicians. More than five percent of the law school graduates never make it through the bar exam gate. (Among the successful candidates, there are indeed a significant number who move to another state in search of lower standards.)</p>
<p>Its after they pass the bar that attorneys face what may be the cruelest screening mechanism of them all: the job market. Young physicians rarely experience unemployment. But while there are 1,050,000 licensed attorneys, according to the ABA, but only about 600,000 of them are employed as lawyers, judges, or administrative law judges, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some of the disparity is due to retirement, and some to the fact that a legal education is generally more useful in the business world than a medical education. But some of it is due to looser screening: it is, after all, harder to become a physician than it is to become a lawyer.</p>