<p>I disagree with some of the other posters. I don’t see any point in applying to a school that you have a very tiny chance of attending. For example, if Stanford is your 5th choice, don’t bother. </p>
<p>Here’s my algorithm:</p>
<ol>
<li>Identify schools that you would be happy going to</li>
<li>Assess the probability that you will get into a school based on grades and test scores. Naviance is ideal for this. </li>
<li>Assess the probability that you can afford the school if you get in. CC groups are good for this. </li>
<li>Rank the schools in order of preference as best you can. </li>
<li>Assuming independence, calculate the probability that you will ATTEND that school. That is the probability that you either didn’t get in or can’t afford all of the schools higher in your list, AND will get in and can afford the schools for which you are calculating probability of attendance. </li>
<li>Choose a theshold, say 5%, and eliminate any school that fall below that threshold unless that school has the potential to be your top choice. Schools like this are not worth the time to apply. </li>
<li>Make sure that you have two safety schools, where the probability of you being able to get in and afford is close to 100%. </li>
</ol>
<p>If you do this in a spreadsheet, it will also provide a recipe for you to research schools so that you can tweak your preferences. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that in fact the decisions are NOT independent, so just ranking in order of difficulty of getting in is not a good idea because the chances that you get rejected by all of them is higher than the product of the rejection probabilities. </p>
<p>If your list includes reaches, matches and safeties, this algorithm should produce a list with the right number of schools. For most people it’s between 5 and 10 depending on how high up the list you put match schools.</p>
<p>I define
reach < 40% chance of getting in
match <40-90% chance of getting in
safety - almost sure. It’s nice to include one that has rolling admissions and notifies you in October.</p>
<p>However, for example, Rice asks on their application which other schools you applied to or are going to apply to. They are an honor code school. You are expected to answer truthfully.</p>
I was going to say that by this standard, nobody would ever apply to Stanford, but with your clarification, maybe I agree.</p>
<p>I would say, though, that if you are interested in Stanford, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Columbia, and Brown (for example), you’d best apply to all of them, because with very few exceptions, the chance of admission is small for any student.</p>
<p>Sadahila: Most top schools do superscore, so you are in decent shape, though it takes more than a strong SAT to gain admission. You should apply to more schools, rather than fewer.</p>
<p>You are correct, if you use the 2009 admissions stats as probabilities (which definitely don’t condition on YOUR stats) just for arguments sake</p>
<p>Harvard 7%
Yale 8%
Stanford 8%
Princeton 10%
Columbia 10%
Brown 11%</p>
<p>If your preferences were in the following order, assuming independence, your probability of attending would be</p>
<p>Harvard 7%
Yale 7%
Stanford 7%
Princeton 8%
Columbia 7%
Brown 7%</p>
<p>However, if you reversed the order, you’d get
Brown 11%
Columbia 9%
Princeton 8%
Yale 6%
Stanford 5%
Harvard 4%</p>
<p>I’d skip Harvard using the 5% threshold in this case.</p>
<p>In fact, I think the admissions decisions are more correlated than independent, and I think the probability of getting rejected by your first 5 choices and getting into your 6th is much smaller than 7% even in the first ranking.</p>
<p>our high school recommends applying to 6 - 10 schools</p>
<p>there are exceptions, of course, due to particular circumstances.<br>
for example -
If you truly love your SAFETY schools, you might not need to apply to more than 3 or 4 schools.<br>
If you have very high stats (GPA, SAT scores) then you might have lots of REACH schools, as they are definately within reach (are really TARGET) but are REACH due to their low acceptance rate, so you may need to apply to more to increase your chances and help your odds with those highest tier schools.</p>
<p>I think the trick is to apply to the RIGHT schools, and being REALISTIC as to where your statistics (GPA and test scores) fall for a school, and being realistic as to what the school’s acceptance rate is. Sometimes a school is in a category more due to it’s acceptance rate than the stats profile.</p>
<p>PICK:
2 -3 SAFETIES: schools you would be HAPPY to go to if you get in no where else (which can definately happen) This is your most important category!! It is EASY to pick REACH schools, but spend time finding GOOD SAFETY schools for yourself!! ALSO - finding good SAFETY schools, where your statistics are on the HIGH side will also help you to get Merit Aid $$!!!</p>
<p>0-2 REACH: Schools you most likely will not get in, and/or these schools have a very LOW acceptance rate (Ivies). Plus, apply to that DREAM school you just have to see if you can get in!! (if you have the time, energy and money to do the application!)</p>
<p>4-6 TARGET: schools where you have a 50/50 chance of getting in</p>
<p>So, if you apply to 2 SAFETY, 2 REACH and 4 TARGET, you would hopefully have 4 schools (or more!) to choose from!!</p>
<p>A match school is one where you are likely to be admitted, and that is a good academic fit for you. One problem with CC is that it is skewed toward a lot of very high-stats students, for whom the good academic fits are schools to which nobody is highly likely to be admitted. If you are a student like that, your matches are really reaches–and you need more of them. You still need some matches where you are likely to be admitted, and a couple of safeties where you are almost certain to be admitted…but for you, those matches may not be among your preferred choices. Do not let anybody tell you that you only need two reaches if they are Harvard and Yale, and you really want to go to a school like that (and have the appropriate qualifications). The likely result of such a plan is matriculation at one of the matches.</p>
<p>I agree with BayArea that it’s very wise to spend time searching the right safety schools. I didn’t do that and I seriously regret it even though the outcome didn’t hurt me. You don’t wanna be putting yourself behind 8 balls.</p>
<p>wittywonka, your advice is sensible, but I think your preferences are a bit atypical. I don’t there are too many CC students who would choose WashU over Princeton (Brown, maybe). I actually think your original list was pretty good, giving you some very good choices, unless some of the apps really suffered because there were so many.</p>
<p>You should be less concerned with the total number of colleges, and think more about the quality of the schools you’re applying to as it relates to your chances of getting in. This is the classic “reach, match, and safety schools” argument, but it still holds true.</p>
<p>First, however, I would apply to all the colleges on this list that you’re interested in attending:</p>
<p>Then, Princeton Review sets the numbers at 3 reach schools, 3 match schools, and 2 safety schools. I think these numbers are fine, but I also think they’re flexible. The key is to have at least one (preferably 2) safety schools, and at least one or two match and reach schools.</p>
<p>The final word of advice I would give you, is to not overextend yourself. It’s better to work really hard on creating 5-7 really strong applications than pressing to send out 12-15 applications that don’t represent your best work. Good luck!</p>
<p>I’d say 10. That’s a good “ball-park” number. Oh and make sure you apply to safeties. I know this one kid in my school who applied to all reaches, and was fortunate to get into his “low reach”.</p>