How many colleges to apply to?

S stats are decent but nothing extraordinary: 31 ACT (not super scored), 4.33 GPA (W), varsity athlete, plenty of volunteer work but no other EC. He’s only applying to 6 schools and I’m nervous for him. All are excellent schools that he loves (though 2 would break his heart if rejected). My question is, should he apply to more?

We’ve always told him not to apply to schools he hasn’t physically been on campus and fallen in love with. I’m somewhat regretting that advice now. Using admissions calculators, his acceptance rates are (in order of desire to attend): 95% and 58%, 51%, 50%, 75%, 2%. So far only the 58% and 2% does he have any hope of being recruited athletically. All others have said ‘no thanks’ already.

There is no need to apply to more schools if the list has true safeties that you can afford, and where he’ll be happy.

So from those calculated acceptance rates, there is one sure thing (the 95%). If it were me, I would think about adding 1-2 more safeties. I admit my perspective on this is that I am worried, more than my son, about the scary possibility of 0 acceptances. I am encouraging my son to apply to some safeties that we have not visited, and will not, unless they become options that he needs to consider once acceptances and rejections are in. He’s burnt out on visits and I want to save the energy for apps now.

Another option is to look at EA/ED and see when decisions come in, and he could always apply to more in the window between those results (some in Dec) and apply RD to schools where the deadline is 1/1 or after.

If his most desired school is the one with 95% chance of admission and is affordable, then it is 95% likely he gets to go to his first choice.

If another school needs to be added, it would be a 100% sure thing safety that he likes.

Based on aid calculators, there’s only one that will be financially difficult w/o merit based aid (a public ivy w/ 50% chance of acceptance). He has stated that these are his 6, come what may, & based on ED/EA may even eliminate some of the remaining.

My question is “why not apply to a few more colleges” so he has more options come spring. He may change his mind in 4-6 months. You never know. IMO, 10-12 is a good number. You get one shot at college undergrad, why limit your options?

That’s my opinion too. I think he’s burnt out on the whole thing, TBH. He just wants it over with and be able to say ‘I’m a College of _____ Class of 2023’. That being said, he does absolutely love the 6 schools & will get an excellent education no matter which he chooses to attend.

Thank you for everyone’s insight.