I was looking at admissions percentages for Ivy League/other top colleges, and it’s clear that early admissions chances can be several times higher than regular chances.
However, I’d also imagine that part of this is because the people who apply to these colleges early are already somewhat certain that they are competitive at an elite level–for example, somebody applying early to Harvard had better be sure they’re a phenomenal applicant to begin with, whereas during RD there are still many excellent applicants but also those who are applying there as a huge reach. I’m also willing to bet that many people with college-specific hooks, such as legacy, are likely to apply early to the specific college where they have that advantage.
Is this an accurate way of thinking about the EA/ED process? How much would an ordinary applicant benefit from applying early, as opposed to their hooked competition?
It depends on the college. Stanford likes to say that applicants don’t have an advantage by applying REA. However, stats show that U Chicago fills pretty much their entire class through ED, so an RD applicant would be at a disadvantage. What schools are on your list?
OP, I agree with your assessment. It does depend somewhat on the college. It is widely understood that applying ED to a college such as Harvard is necessary for athletes and legacies, and for unhooked applicants, if you have a stellar application, it might be a small advantage, only because there are fewer apps to compete against. At the very top colleges, ED generally is not helpful for someone who isn’t already a very strong applicant.
I would caution any student from applying to a school with an under ten percent acceptance rate ED, if they are not already very strong. It’s a wasted ED card otherwise. And bear in mind that some of the tippy tops have SCEA, rather than ED. It isn’t a binding decision, but you are still shooting yourself in the foot if you miss the opportunity to apply to other colleges’ as non-restrictive EA. Bottom line, you need to be an exceptional student to apply ED or SCEA to any tippy top colleges. Yes, being hooked helps, but a hook will not cause an admissions committee to forgive an otherwise lackluster application.