<p>I think bluebayou has it right. </p>
<p>I was figuring it on a class size of 1,000. The goal in the last several years has been to enroll an entering class of 1,075 (they overshot last year by 30). </p>
<p>So if they have accepted 400 in ED this year, then D’s got just over 37.2% of the class filled. There are 675 spots left to be filled through RD. </p>
<p>Last year 14,176 applied for admission (ED and RD combined) with 2,166 admitted (ED and RD combined) for an admit rate of 15.3%. If there is an increase in applicants this year (due to recruiting of international students, etc; ED applications were up 8.9% this year) of 5%, then D could see a total applicant pool of almost 15,000 students. </p>
<p>With over 37% of the 2012 class admitted in ED and the prospect of an applicant pool of nearly 15,000, then RD this year will be the most competitive ever. </p>
<p>Given that D gets about a 50% yield (from ED and RD combined), I suspect that D will looking to accept about 1800 applicants in RD from a pool of potentially 13,600 (excluding the 1400 who applied in ED)for an admit rate of about 13%. Given that underrepresented minorities apply in disproportionate numbers in RD and given that D probably has some quotas to fill, this 13% number probably overstates the likelihood of admission for most candidates.</p>