Right now I’m depending heavily on them because affordability is the main factor in our decision.
There’s been plenty of occasions where someone has said X college has great aid, or some book or website says so, and then the npc turns out terrible.
A lot of extremely competitive colleges known for aid turn up exactly what I was expecting: great net price.
We are in need of merit plus aid which seems to work out on some net price calculators. I’m not desperate: there’s definitely more than a handful of great prospects turning up.
I can’t see another way to wade through the hundreds of colleges looking for a deal than this, but I’m afraid I might have eliminated some great chances using their net price calculators.
Some errors are discernable: OOS that ask for our residency (CA) but don’t factor in WUE.
But a lot is just mysterious. Should I trust the npcs?
I’m not going to give the full run through on our stats etc. because I’ve done that on another thread so just asking about these NPCs which I wonder about.
The big questions are: is there a parental divorce/remarriage? Is there property owned beyond the family’s primary residence? Does the family own a business? All of those situations render the results of the NPC less than accurate.
In terms of things like merit and need based aid, many schools do not “stack” aid so being awarded merit reduces need based aid.
We were very price sensitive in our search. My only anecdote I can provide is the results were spot on, but D20 was accepted ED at a meets 100% need school with significant financial aid and we didn’t get to see any other awards because she had to withdraw all other applications. DH and I are still married, own our home, do not own a business, and have financials that are really straightforward. We ran the NPC before applying, after the school updated the costs for the year, and used the info from the correct tax year, and entered assets based on current balances. We printed out the results and saved them in case there was a discrepancy so we could base our dispute on something specific, but we didn’t need to because our cost was within $200 or so.
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When in doubt and a school remains a favorite on your list - reach out and ask for a financial aid pre-read. Not every school will do it - but many of the smaller LACs are quite nice about it and will calculate the need and merit for you. Never hurts to ask and what a great way to show demonstrated interest too 
obviously if the school is really one that stands out to your child.
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The calculators on the school’s websites were within $1000 give or take for us for the schools that state they meet 100% of need and offer merit. Same for those that just meet need and do not offer merit.
But, as some have pointed out, with merit read the fine print on stacking and other requirements to maintain GPAs. When we looked at one offer with the idea that when her brother was no longer in college her junior year she would lose some need based, maintain the merit, and consider being an RA (free room and board) those last two years…it was posted how the room and board for being an RA would not reduce the expected family contribution. It actually would have reduced the need based. That is the same with trying to stack outside scholarships at some colleges.
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You have to know how the schools use the NPC. Some include merit, especially if it is automatic for grades and scores, but some do not. Getting merit may reduce need based aid, but it may not. You also have to know if you are eligible for other aid, such as athletic, talent, state aid/merit and may have to add those in.
The NPC were correct for my kids based on the questions asked. For one, she was getting athletic aid that didn’t show up on the NPC. Any need based aid on the NPC would have been reduced/eliminated because of the athletic award. I knew about other awards she would be getting that weren’t on the NPC (resident grant, Bright Futures, a private grant) so we kept the school on the list even though the NPC showed a much higher amount than I could pay.
For the other daughter/other school, the NPC did show the correct merit award (had to put in the gpa and score) but not the talent award (from the department).
If it is a CSS school and the NPC doesn’t ask detailed questions, the NPC probably won’t be accurate.
The WUE is not automatic at every school so that’s why it might not show on the NPC. Some schools limit the number, require a certain GPA/Score combo, or limit the majors eligible for the award.
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100% agree one has to understand how a school’s NPC works (and you really won’t know that unless you speak with someone). Many NPCs don’t ask for stats because they aren’t awarding merit…they are just discounting. And the discount rate can be different for different applicants.
The more accurate NPCs are set to the upcoming year’s COA, ask for FAFSA EFC or ask enough questions to approximate FAFSA EFC. Schools that use CSS Profile ask enough questions to approximate that EFC (each school has a proprietary formula for that).
Remember that most FAFSA only schools don’t meet full need, they might not even come close. That’s why the FAFSA repeal of the sibling discount might not necessarily impact a student in the future (beyond the potential loss of Pell grant).
There also is a great deal of backlash about that particular part of the new FAFSA methodology,so we don’t know whether that will ultimately happen either. Of course enough legislators did support eliminating the benefit for families with children close together ….a benefit that families with children farther apart in age can’t access. Lots of uncertainty but IMO one can’t eliminate schools based on an upcoming change that may impact a school’s FA, or not. It’s up to each school how to handle that.
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Yeah it’s hard to imagine the year, two years from now, when thousands of kids are simultaneously thrown out of college because of FAFSA. Hard to imagine that that’s going to fly without a backlash.
And yet colleges decrease aid and increase fees once they get students into the first year all the time, so handing them an excuse to do so can’t be a good thing on the horizon either.
I think there are some vague things one can do short of interviewing aid officers at each of hundreds of colleges just based on knowledge that is out there. Would my daughter get kicked out of Mt. Holyoke in two years? Definitely not. But Beloit, which is struggling, who knows? (examples could vary)
I’m still stumped as to what to do though about the large number of colleges I think would be great but whose npc result was bad. I can’t handle the amount of research it would take to get to the bottom of that, there’s just too many in that category.
I’m not counting the also large number of npc’s that include merit / need breakdowns, that ask detailed financial questions, that give fine print information on the first page about merit/need and other contingencies, etc., and all the things people mention here. I’m able to process that, and as I said, I also test it by changing my data to see how it responds.
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I guess I should have included some stats and info. There’s nothing atypical about our family situation so that won’t throw it off.
And in almost all cases there is nothing in academic stats that won’t lead to the maximum merit aid available on the npc, at least with one child, and with testing the other child’s stats I have yet to turn up a different result.
There are a few places with automatic merit rules (usually non-competitive states) that use weighted grades for automatic merits, in which case our high school does not have enough weighted grades to get past 4.2, but most use unweighted and rank for the npc.
You have to do the work if you want the money. You can take them off the list if you have others you are happy with, but yes, you might miss a really good opportunity if you take them off the list without digging.
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As the mom of twins, I have a lot of concern about this! Right now, the NPCs provide dramatically different answers depending on whether I check that I have one student or two in college at the same time.
On a recent tour, I asked an admissions officer: “what happens to aid packages in two years when the FAFSA no longer offers a sibling discount when families have multiple children in college?” She said that, so far, the formula on the CSS shows no sign of being changed so aid probably won’t shift much even though the FAFSA formula will change. But she wasn’t 100% sure. So yet another reason to chase merit money!
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Yup I started the search, or my daughter did really, with CSS schools because of this, and also leaning LAC too.
I do wonder in a liberal state like CA whether they can kick so many kids out of college in one swipe, politically speaking, but the state is known for it’s budget problems (ask my tires and suspension).
I don’t find the NPC to be accurate across the board. Many do not include merit but you can’t really tell that. I usually run it with a really high EFC to check for that first. Make sure you have one sure bet for admission and financial aid and it’s ok to have a few that area out of price range with the understanding that they might not be possible even if your kid is admitted. My kid has some spikes that may change the calculator though, so that seems to work for me.
I have the same question too and the question may be restated as “Is a school’s NPC accurate within x%?” Such as it’s within 10-15%.
And the answer is “It depends.” It depends on the school. It depends on the number if inputs the school requests. It depends on the circumstances of the student’s family. There is no blanket answer.
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Look through the thread for the answers to many of the “it depends” factors. It’s not just a useless “it depends.” You can find out some of the things it depends on and factor these in.
I asked the question wrong for me, but right for you, in that I didn’t specify how much I already understood about the calculators but I think a lot of that is here for you to see.
My question was essentially “Am I missing out on opportunities if I rely heavily on npcs” and the answer was “Yes, you definitely are”
That particular question is decided for me by people who can compare their npc results with their offer results.
This is great advice. This is what goes on for students seeking to be recruited athletes. They may have financial pre-reads next month and up to ED deadlines.
I hope the NPC is not way off but ultimately we pay what we have to pay.
It would be great if everyone could say that, but most of us can’t