<p>realdeal...
your statistical analysis reminds me of the old riddle that adds up all the days that a person devotes to eating, sleeping, going to school etc. The total always adds up to more than 365. </p>
<p>I suspect you've got a little bit of double counting going on yourself. Legacies, minorities, internationals, athletes, etc. are not all independent of each other. A legacy could be international, a minority could be an athlete, etc.</p>
<p>I do know, from personal experience with my S and some of his friends, that even a white, middle-class, non-legacy, non-athletic boy from NYC can get into Yale or any other top-notch school. Even some who require financial aid.</p>
<p>All the things you've described may be considered a hook. Legacy status can help, but even as you point out, the vast majority are being rejected. Minority status and athletics can help, too, but are no guarantee.</p>
<p>Being a stand out academically can get you in, too. And I'm not talking about grades and test scores. All the what-are-my-chances posts on this board are a waste of time. No one can predict your chances based on grades, test scores and a laundry list of activities.</p>
<p>The real question is this: Why should school X take me? And those kids who can answer it in a meaningful way, by talking passionately about their accomplishments, achievements, skills, talents, etc. are the ones who are most likely to get in. Applications and essays that address these points, backed up by stellar recommendations from teachers, mentors, etc. are what's necessary to get in.</p>
<p>As you noted, about 20,000 kids applied to Yale last year and fewer than 2,000 were accepted (9.9% to be precise). Ever ask yourself how many of those applicants had perfect boards? Or 1500 boards and a 95 average Or 1400 and 94? It obviously thousands more than they can possibly accept. So clearly, the decision comes down to other factors.</p>
<p>Do some kids get because they're legacies. I'm sure the answer is "yes". And some kids may get in because they're athletes. But if you hang out with the kids at these schools, realize immediately that the overwhelming majority provided a clear and compelling answer to the question: "Why should you take me?"</p>