I am coming from the perspective of working at public regional comprehensive university where we’ve seen about a 30% decline in student enrollment over the past 8 years or so (~18000 at its peak, down to about ~12000 now) and having seen the real effects that come along with such large declines (deferred maintenance, higher faculty teaching loads leaving less time for students, fewer faculty and staff overall, etc). It makes me wonder if/how to factor in enrollment trends into the college search. For example, some colleges on the table:
-Missouri State: ~9% increase over the past five years; year-to-year was flat this past year
-Northwestern Missouri State: ~6% decrease over the past five years; 5% year-to-year increase this past year
-Alabama: 14% enrollment increase over the past five years; year-to-year was essentially flat last year (<.5% decrease)
(aside–visited and absolutely loved Alabama, making it the size exception on the list)
-Appalachian State: ~9% increase over the past five years; 1-2% year-to-year increase last year
I see these statistics so much in work context, but how do you interpret them in a choice context? For example, I’m viewing Alabama’s enrollment as flat for the most recent year-to-year (especially given that their Spring 2019 numbers shore up almost all of that very small drop) and their substantial size trajectory as a big positive, and NWMSU’s declining trend is softened by the year-to-year increase. What should be a concerning or positive trend? What should be a negligible change?
This was a concern of mine when we were looking. We took a couple of schools off the list that looked like they were having financial issues and weren’t well rated on the Forbes list of financial fitness. We were also carefully tracking OOS publics that were having significant funding cuts by the state.
School that are growing need to be managing and preparing for the influx of students. My D’s incoming class was the biggest in her school’s history as they miscalculated yield by 800 students. The university scrambled to find housing for the freshmen and over 100 students ended up in temporary housing. They also had to add advisors, and sections of classes. This year though, they hit their planned for number and there are 2 brand new dorms opening this Fall. On paper that might look like stagnation but really they are hitting their planned for target.
I would attribute Alabama’s past increase to their buying of students through tuition discounting over the past 5-7 years and the flattening to their slow decrease of that discounting. Based on demographic trends most colleges are soft. I would worry more about bad endowment trends more than enrollment numbers and remember also that there are more than a handful of families that will chase the discounts and word spreads.
It may also be worth considering whether the student’s majors of interest are rapidly increasing in popularity, or if they attract very few students.
If the major is rapidly increasing in popularity, then crowded classes, rationing of classes, and secondary admission to major may be present, due to demand outstripping department capacity. (Example: CS at many colleges.)
If the major is at very low popularity, its department may be very small and have limited offerings, and the major and department may be a target for budget cuts if the school has money problems.
I’d look at both the endowment and enrollment trends.
Looks like a good idea to notice red flags but a bad idea to overthink things. Your child should come up with a list of schools based on academics, the campus and financial considerations. Only after they have this list should you even consider checking for your criteria. Please, please, do not ruin their search with your concerns. College is not a business spread sheet, it is so much more than that. btw, I would consider flat, little change numbers to be a good thing- they hit the right balance and stability.
I’m definitely not letting it dominate the search, but just making it one point among many to consider. Does the institution I work for provide an excellent education and experience for students? Definitely! Has the enrollment decline and subsequent budget issues impacted some aspects of the student experience? Sadly, also yes. It won’t make or break things at all, but it seems like a point worth considering if things come down to a handful of well-liked, affordable choices.