In Los Angeles County, “On July 25, infection and hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons were 4.9 and 29.2 times, respectively, those in fully vaccinated persons.” (B.1.617.2 / Delta variant was the predominant variant in July)
In the HEROES-RECOVER cohort study, “Adjusted VE during this Delta predominant period was 66% (95% CI = 26%–84%) compared with 91% (95% CI = 81%–96%) during the months preceding Delta predominance.” (Vaccines involved were 65% Pfizer - BioNTech, 33% Moderna, 2% J&J - Janssen.)
The study summaries do not seem to have appeared on medRxiv yet.
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I did a search on this thread for “medcram” and found 5 or 6 mentions of this resource, all from 2020. I’ve listened to several of their broadcasts and have appreciated the very data-driven, research based information shared. A lot of it does have to do with the original wt virus since these videos were started at the beginning of the pandemic. The delta variant, which seems to have a much higher viral load thus speeding up the sequence of disease progression, should still set off the same physiological events in the body so advice about what to do to take care of yourself, should you come down with COVID, would still apply. This video from the people at Medcram has tips on what you can do to help yourself if you come down with COVID.
Just an FYI - this same site (Medcram) pushed hydroxychloroquine. YouTube apparently removed those videos.
I would take any medical advice posted on YouTube with a large grain of salt.
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I linked the YouTube because it’s not behind a sign-in system like the Medcram website is. In Seheult’s subsequent videos on Medcram he goes into other studies on HCQ that showed negative or neutral effects of HCQ on COVID, it’s not like he’s invested in HCQ or anything. A lot of the Medcram videos are narrated, with on-screen images of the studies that he is reviewing. He’s a strong proponent of double-blinded randomized controlled studies but a lot of COVID info that gets released ends up being retrospective and he tries to talk through the key points of those. One video even mentions ivermectin as a potential therapy, but he takes pains to point out that those studies are in-vitro at concentrations that exceed safe blood levels in humans. Medcram also has video interviews with Shane Crotty, Michael Mina, and John Campbell re: COVID which are also informative. I have enough science and medical background to know these guys are not quacks.
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I think all of those you mentioned have been vaccinated and encourage vaccination. I think it’s good that they review studies of controversial things to help clear up misinformation.
Wow - I just read the expectations for teachers at my school if they end up being exposed to someone with Covid.
If they are vaccinated and symptomatic:
The teacher or administrator must
quarantine for 10 days and be
symptom-free for at least 24 hours.
The teacher must use sick and/or
personal days.
If they are vaccinated and asymptomatic:
The teacher or administrator may
continue to provide in-person
instruction. Face Covering
Recommended for 10-14 days.
No sick or personal days will need to
be used.
Am I the only one wondering how this is possible if asymptomatic teachers can still spread Covid whether vaccinated or not? Even face coverings are only recommended, not required, and saving sick/personal days is quite the incentive to show up vs staying home.
Is this the policy in other school districts too?
Maybe it really is time for me to retire if I’m the only one bewildered that this is the plan.
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What happens if a teacher is new and doesnt have sick and personal days?
Just edited the post when H and I reread the whole directive trying to figure it out and realized they appear to be talking about teachers who have been exposed to Covid positive people (esp at school), not testing positive themselves.
It’s still set up for teachers/staff to not want to be tested - just wait it out to avoid using sick days. Still, it’s a little better than when I thought they meant teachers had tested positive and they were still wanting them to come to school to teach.
H figures it matches our Deep Red area and they’re going for plain old herd immunity by letting it spread. He’s also asked me if I just want to retire. Maybe. I loved my job even when I’m just part time (because I get to teach, not babysit like most subs), but I guess there’s a time to move on.
BTW, in our district new teachers still have personal and sick days, but I’m not sure it adds up to 10.
Here’s Unvaccinated and asymptomatic:
The teacher or administrator may
return to in-person learning with a
negative COVID test (on/after day 5
and return on day 8) or wait 10 days
or return to in-person learning with a
face covering.
At the discretion of the teacher they
can opt to teach remotely, but must
still use sick and/or personal days.
So again, encouraging those exposed to go to school, not go remote, esp since they can return to school and avoid all “wait” options by wearing a face covering.
I suspect we’re going to be in for a bit of Covid spreading with full classrooms, no social distancing, and optional masking.
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I’m pretty sure my district has something similar. And vaccination status supposedly will be on the honor system, so there will be plenty of lies about that. And you know what else I suspect? No student will ever be found to be less than 3’ of another student who tests positive, and ALL will be determined to always have been properly masked. Voila…if asymptomatic no quarantine required!
Parents and staff are terrified of the spread that’s going to happen. No chance to sign up for virtual at this point (the signup for that closed before Delta).
I am disgusted!
Volunteers aren’t allowed in schools (yet?), but I’ve decided I’m done volunteering in schools. It’s definitely time for me to move on. I want nothing to do with a school system that lies to staff, students, families, and the community. And I’ve been telling the same to other volunteers I know who aren’t as up on what’s been going on as I am.
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Our teachers will have I think 10 days to use for covid/quarantine above their sick leave. If they are quarantined but not sick they have a remote option that keeps them from using sick/covid days. This was all from school board meeting and sometimes hard to tell what is official vs what is just being discussed.
Of course this could change and doesn’t help if quarantined more than once. D is vaccinated and so I’m not sure exact quarantine rules but I think that if she is wearing mask then doesn’t have to quarantine for close contact or if child in class is close contact from elsewhere. Very confusing
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My kids’ private high school in California has similar rules, so I’m guessing the policy is based on CDC guidance. It’s called “modified quarantine” and applies only for COVID exposure that occurs in school, not in the household or community at large. If a teacher or student is exposed at school and has no symptoms, and is vaccinated, they can continue to come to school so long as they get tested twice within 10 days (and the tests come back negative, of course). They are considered “in quarantine” even though they are at school. Different rules apply for the unvaccinated, but I believe even they can continue to attend school so long as they mask at all times, indoors and outdoors.
Having said that, California has a statewide mask mandate for all schools, indoors, whenever students are present, regardless of vaccination status. Also, my kids’ private school is mandating the vaccine for all faculty, staff and students age 12+ (with proof, no honor system) AND the school has capacity to ventilate classrooms very well and to space students a good distance apart (though they are not promising 6 feet apart this year, since 6 feet is no longer the guidance).
With all that said, I feel comfortable with the modified quarantine policy for my vaccinated 16 year old. I absolutely understand why teachers and parents in schools without a vaccine or even masking requirement would be upset with such a policy!
The sick leave issue is one I hadn’t thought about – very problematic. We need to do everything possible to make it financially and academically possible for sick teachers and students to stay home until they are well.
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Refers to https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2783099 which covered cases from January to July 2020 in Zhejiang, China.
The study also found that contacts of asymptomatic patients were less likely to be infected, and more likely to be asymptomatic if infected.
Of course, the presymptomatic (and asymptomatic) spread made the virus more difficult to control than some other viruses that are most contagious after symptoms start (when the sick person and others know to keep away from each other).
BBC has posted a vaccine to virus comparison article on some side effects. I’m sure the study is there if people want to see it. At the top they compare AstraZeneca, but below they do some with Pfizer.
There’s definitely small risks with the vaccines and far, far greater risks with the virus. I still muse (personal - not in the article) wondering if those who have problems with the vaccine would also have been among those not doing well with Covid. I’ve heard doctors wonder the same thing, but don’t know that there’s any way to know for sure until they figure out exactly what makes one have these bad turnouts for both.
I feel for those who have bad side effects from the vaccines as much as I do for those who had bad effects from Covid prior to vaccines.
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This is the study discussed in the article.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext
Findings
Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low.
Interpretation
This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.
People were wondering if Delta was more dangerous. That study seems to say yes, esp since it was mostly conducted on unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people.
From the article:
It is already known that Delta is far more infectious, and this latest robust analysis has now confirmed that once infected, people are more likely to be hospitalised,
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