The case in Belgium developed flu-like symptoms
But you had said unvaccinated for that one (donāt have time to read the latest right now). If unvaxxed, thereās no way to know if vaxxes help or not which is really the news Iām awaiting TBH.
Yes, that one is unvaxxed
Hong Kong vaxxed - no symptoms yet but too early to form
Too soon to see if the vaccine is effective or not - theyāre saying 2 weeks to see how vaxxed exposed to the virus perform
Theyāre gathering that data now
SA saying almost all in the hospitals are unvaxxed but I believe the vaccinated in that country is something like 30-40%, so you would assume more unvaxxed in hospitals anyway
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That is the theoretical speed that mRNA vaccines companies can be making new variant vaccines. But they did not choose to do so for Delta or other variants.
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Also, the WHO says thereās a āreinfection riskā. If thereās an increased risk with natural immunity, it suggests this may be the case with vaccine-acquired as well.
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There are delta specific variants in trials right now. They probably wonāt be released though. The spike is so similar that the original versions are likely not going to be any more effective.
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I read 100 days for new vaccine development for variants. Can someone cite the 6 weeks?
Developing a new mRNA vaccine to target the Omicron variant shouldnāt take very long, as thatās one of the key advantages of mRNA vaccines (a new J&J vaccine, on the other hand, may take longer to develop, if itās needed). I believe the estimate of 100 days is based on what Pfizer thinks may take (probably optimistically) for the new vaccine to be tested and approved.
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New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529 - by Katelyn Jetelina that was linked in post #4075 by @TexasTiger2 says that āif we need another vaccine, we can do this incredibly quickly. Thanks to the new biotechnology, mRNA vaccines are really easy to alter. Once the minor change is made, only 2 dozen people need to enroll in a trial to make sure the updated vaccine works. Then it can be distributed to arms. Because the change is small, an updated vaccine doesnāt need Phase III trials and/or regularity approval. So, this whole process should take a max of 6 weeks.ā
Of course, that is if an mRNA vaccine company chooses to do that, and regulators accept that timeline.
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The key here is tested and approved. Moderna had the vaccine we use today ready over the weekend after receiving the sequence, I believe on Friday.
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Washington Post today:
āIn the event that vaccine-escape variant emerges, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to be able to develop and produce a tailor-made vaccine against that variant in approximately 100 days, subject to regulatory approval,ā a Pfizer spokesperson said in a statement.
Every time I read the ā100 daysā figure, it refers to development and production. But the media could have it wrong- repeatedly.
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Of approximately 600 passengers from South Africa to Amsterdam in quarantine, there are 61 COVID positive, 13 of which are Omicron. Now in Australia. Suspected cases in Denmark, Germany, UK, Czech.
Meanwhile, the US travel restrictions are not yet in effect.
We have learned nothing since 2020.
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Iād bet thereāre even more infections than those who were tested positive upon their arrival in Amsterdam. The passenger who had the Omicron variant tested negative upon his arrival in Hong Kong. He was only identified by additional tests during his quarantine.
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If these folks are only being discovered due to testing, is Omicron dangerous? If itās literally no worse than a cold, then to me, itās nowhere near the same level of a problem as the original or Delta.
It makes sense that a disease will mutate to be less dangerous to its host. Killing off the host doesnāt allow it as much reproduction. Natural selection would tend toward less deadly, not more.
I have no idea if itās causing severe problems or not - just musing from what I see (and hoping it ends up not being as major). Iām not sure anyone knows yet, do they?
If others see stats for severe cases, esp among vaxxed folks, please share.
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Dr. Fauci was just asked that question on the ABC This Week program. Heās been talking to his South African counterpart daily since the announcement of this variant, but he still hasnāt gotten the answer yet. The two cases in HK (both fully vaccinated), however, appear to be not severe.
A highly deadly variant isnāt going to be highly transmissive. However, Iām not sure if a highly transmissive variant wouldnāt necessarily cause severe infections. Fewer deadly infections? Maybe.
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that is the million dollar question. If this varient is no worse than a cold or flu, and does not cause as many hospitalizations is it a concern? A while back I remember reading that as the virus mutates it may become less potent. Delta became very dangerous because it become more transmittable and what seems to be more dangerous than the original or Alpha.
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COVID-19 is transmitted before it causes symptoms, so selection against symptom severity (up to death) may not be as strong as it otherwise may be. Also, note that some symptoms (like coughing) can increase transmission, so selection can be in favor of such symptoms.
However, there may be an indirect selection against symptom severity, in that if it becomes no worse than a common cold, people will stop caring about preventing transmission.
Clearly some have learned well when it comes to travel restrictionsā¦they used to result in one being called certain names.
Hereās what I donāt getā¦how do 60+ people who tested negative in SA turn positive a few hours later. Could it be some of the tests being used are either low quality or intentionally ineffectiveā¦so as to not cause travel hassles?
I am not sure of the requirements for travel as it varies so much. Did they have to have a negative test before boarding, or was vaccinated status enough? Also I have read that they were held on the planes on the tarmac for a long time before being allowed to disembark. So the total time on the airplane could have been more than just a few hours.
If they have to test negative 3 days before they travel which is the standard these days thereās plenty of time to become positive. Testing should be rapid at the airport if we really want accurate snapshots of positivity before people board a plane. The current testing standard is not worth much.
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