https://covid19dashboard.regeneron.com/?tab=Variant_Graphs&subTab=Top_Variants_Over_Time_(Select_Location)&Continent=Asia&Country=Thailand&State=any&VariantType=PANGO%20lineage says that most COVID-19 in Thailand recently has been BA.5 variants (similar to the US).
3 Likes
They have been very sick. Ten days. One took Paxlovid. Saw another cousin today who had COVID early on. She seems healthy but after climbing stairs was breathless and commented âever since COVID.â
I think the impact of COVID varies. I know people whoâve been quite sick - a week in bed and another couple weeks to get back to normal and people whoâve barely had any impact at all (mostly teens, but not exclusively). I just had it myself and basically had a moderate to bad cold. No exhaustion, felt normal (except congestion & some coughing) within a couple of days (though continued to test positive). Iâm healthy & not prone to colds or illness of any type, but Iâm also 60 years old and my last booster was in December (so 9+ months ago; I was waiting for the bi-valent & didnât jump fast enough when it came out). I think just like the flu, or a bad cold virus, different people will react differently. Hopefully most vaccinated people will recover quickly and completely, although some will be sicker than others. I assume your friend who is still out of breath was not vaccinated when she had it if she had it early on. I hope your cousins recover quickly!
This isnât encouraging, although vaccination status wasnât taken into effect. Still, though, wasnât there research out that being vaccinated only decreased the chance of long covid about 15%?
So there will be even less reporting by the CDC after October 20.
<<The agencyâs massive complex outside Atlanta sits mostly empty, while employees, including Dr. Walensky, work remotely.
âThe actions that are being taken all strike me as actions that make sense and would make C.D.C. a more effective public health agency,â said Dr. Besser, the former C.D.C. acting director.
But he said it was hard to see how Dr. Walensky could execute wholesale changes when she only sees most of her staff at a distance. âI donât know how you motivate and inspire culture change when people arenât together,â he said. >>
Especially since the CDC is lessening covid recommendations, isnât it time that they all get back to the office? Kind of hypocritical for them to continue working remotely.
3 Likes
I have seen a lot of data looking at Long Covid and read lots of informative literature produced around the topic, but it is surveys like this one that cause people to âignore the scienceâ (or statistics) when it comes to Long Covid. In this survey, I would have expected that the non-response rate from those who have had no issues with Covid or Long Covid to be much higher than from those who have had major issues due to Covid or Long Covid. So it makes it very hard to believe in the data presented. But the survey shares its limitations:
âThe Household Pulse Survey is different: It was designed to go into the field quickly, to be administered via the web, and to disseminate data in near real-time, providing data users with information they can use now to help ease the burden on American households and expedite post-pandemic recovery. The Census Bureau is fielding the Household Pulse Survey as a demonstration project, with data released as part of its Experimental Statistical Products Series.
Confidence intervals included in the tables on this page only reflect the potential for sampling error. Nonsampling errors can also occur and are more likely for surveys that are implemented quickly, achieve low response rates, and rely on online response. Nonsampling errors for the Household Pulse Survey may include:
- Measurement error: The respondent provides incorrect information, or an unclear survey question is misunderstood by the respondent. The Household Pulse Survey schedule offered only limited time for testing questions.
- Coverage error: Individuals who otherwise would have been included in the survey frame were missed. The Household Pulse Survey only recruited households for which an email address or cell phone number could be identified.
- Nonresponse error: Responses are not collected from all those in the sample or the respondent is unwilling to provide information. The response rate for the Household Pulse Survey was substantially lower than most federally sponsored surveys.
- Processing error: Forms may be lost, data may be incorrectly keyed, coded, or recoded. The real-time dissemination of the Household Pulse Survey provided limited time to identify and fix processing errors.â
The fact that the article looks to highlight the most startling data point captured in the survey is something that we will continue to see, but it is being tuned out by a large percentage of the population based on the current lifestyles lived by most Americans.
2 Likes
The CDC put out the results of this survey. One would think they would not âignore the science.â
There are those who want to minimize long covid, yet also increasingly we see studies coming out about body systems that may be affected that people would be unaware about unless sophisticated tests are performed. The damage that occurred may not be evident immediately. I also think that long covid may be underreported.
The CDC has certainly done their part to minimize covid, so I find it curious that they thought this survey important enough to put out. And they are still concerned enough about covid that they work remotely.
1 Like
I agree the mixed messaging coming from the CDC and their embrace of less testing and sequencing is troubling, especially given that public uptake of the new bivalent booster seems very tepid so far. But I do wonder if itâs legitimate COVID concern or are they similar to so many in corporate America who prefer the ease and convenience of WFH (and fear the backlash from employees who will petition and whine on social media and refuse to return to the office)? I think the House is still primarily voting from home too. Government run remotely doesnât seem like a great option long term.
2 Likes
Thinking cynically, which message will play better to an unsympathetic audience: âCDC workers still remoteâ or âCOVID outbreak at the CDCâ?
Either way, there are more than just COVID considerations. A good CDC employee has to be knowledgeable about the science, interested in public service, and willing to maybe take a lower salary than they could get in private industry. Itâs not a huge hiring pool. If you are then also requiring that person to relocate to Atlanta, you shrink your pool further. Nothing against Atlanta. This is a problem in my industry too and we have made changes. Itâs not ideal, but the pandemic showed us it could work for many situations where it was previously thought unworkable.
(Where Iâm not sure it works is for our college kids⊠seems harder to come up to speed as a new entrant to the working world.)
2 Likes
Just to add about the CDCâs COVID reporting 1x/week: it makes sense because lots of states are only reporting to the CDC 1x/week. NC switched to once a week some time ago. The CDC is aggregating the statesâ data and thereâs not currently not much point in doing it daily.
2 Likes
Yep. I have several close family members who work at Government agencies doing work dealing with the Pandemic and there will be an exodus as soon as the at-home policies/flex work policies are rescinded. But I donât personally think they will ever go back to a 5 day in the office schedule.
1 Like
Do you think that people would be living mostly pre-pandemic lifestyles if they truly believed that Long Covid study? Do you think that people do not know or just do not care about the risks associated with Covid? I am curious as to what you would do to turn the tide towards current public sentiment. Mandates for masking in public? Vaccine mandates for school children (least vaccinated group by far are kids)? Some form of mandatory testing and reporting being required? What should the CDC be doing right now?
Some of the correlation I have seen in people I know was to number of doses of vaccine:
- 0 doses (pre-vaccine, ancestral virus): 2 out of 6 (not elderly) had medium/long COVID (symptoms for months after recovery).
- 2 doses (Delta or Omicron): sometimes quite unpleasant (bad flu-like) with some weeks to recover lung capacity after clearing the virus.
- 3 doses (Omicron): relatively mild symptoms (mild cold-like) among many, have not heard of any long COVID.
1 Like
2 Likes
The majority of the population live unhealthy lifestyles in many other respects. They drink more than advised, eat a poor diet, take drugs, donât exercise, etc. Is there a need for mandated controls on what you are allowed to eat, or forced exercise every week?
If Covid is to be treated as a matter of personal responsibility (and I see little point in doing anything else, since it will be with us for the rest of our lives) then mandates are not compatible with that approach. And educational campaigns about vaccines will be about as effective as the ones telling kids âdonât take drugs!â. Remember that only a small fraction of the population ever gets a flu vaccine, despite its proven effectiveness.
2 Likes
I agree with all your points, but small nit: approx 40% of folks do get flu vaccines on a consistent basis. The number is in the 60âs for the 65+ group.
In that, you are wrong. Since 2009, the lowest vaccination rates for the flu was 43% (2017), and in the past four years, itâs been over 50%.
1 Like
Hereâs the proportion of people by age group whoâve received flu shots over the last 12 years:
And one more nit: in some years the flu vaccine is not effective (because it must be manufactured before we know what flu strains will be circulating that season, so manufacturers make their best guesses)
Historical efficacy here, several years below 20% effective:
1 Like
That seems pretty small to me, compared to the vaccination rate for other diseases (eg MMR, polio, even tetanus). My point is that we should likely expect Covid vaccination in the future to look much like flu vaccination: something old people worry about getting done each year, but not something thatâs a huge priority for younger healthy millennials. Itâs less clear whether childhood vaccination for Covid will become commonplace, the advice seems to differ hugely between countries.
2 Likes
May not happen until if/when a covid variant has disproportionately severe outcomes for children. Currently covid vaccine rates in children are lower than for flu, and much lower than those for some other diseases.
1 Like