Two years ago I was really sick with H1N1 in March. So I think my October shot may have lost its effectiveness by then. I am going to look into two shots, thanks!
I remember that very well because I was one of the first allowed to get it because I am a nurse. I think I had to show my license or employee badge that said RN on it.
I had strep and the flu the first week of January 2019. Iāve never been so sick before. Of course, it was the flu strain not in the shot I had in October. I will be getting a shot this year. Already scheduled at my work place in early October. My DD20 will be getting hers before college move in at end of September. Anyone think she should get a 2nd before she returns for 2nd semester in January?
Flu vaccine effectiveness is complicated, and goes beyond how long protection might last. From the CDC:
This page has historical flu vaccine effectiveness estimates. Two years ago (2018/19 ago) saw a vaccine effectiveness estimate of only 29%:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html
I may have missed this among the many posts so I apologize in advanceā¦
Does anyone have any thoughts, or seen any prognostications, on the severity of the the upcoming flu season? Iām wondering if the steps some/many/most people are taking to lessen the spread of Covid-19 will lessen the spread of the flu.
Flu cases have been lower in the Southern Hemisphere in the past few monthsā¦there are many sources but hereās one from WHO: https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/latest_update_GIP_surveillance/en/
Hopefully covid precautions will lead to fewer flu cases in the US this season, but people should still get flu vaccines.
@Mwfan1921 I remember that low rate of effectiveness now. I am pretty aware of the complexities because I have lupus. In some years when the effectiveness is presumed to be low, I have skipped the shot- but not that year.
Med school lad told me last yearās ('19-'20) season started bad, but dropped off quickly once Covid hit (March) to where it was very low. The doctors there gave credit to anti-Covid measures. In hindsight, itās very probably a lot of the āvery highā flu cases in Feb and early March were also Covid and not necessarily flu. They didnāt have tests and often donāt officially test for flu. Many in his med school class had āthe fluā and were out yet never officially tested for flu. It was just assumed. This was in NY.
More on the US potentially halting trials and approving vaccines. I didnāt realize that Oxford/AstraZenecaās trial had already been put on hold here because the FDA is already discussing that they will grant emergency utilization access. That must be why I keep reading about Moderna and Pfizer early trial results, but not theirs. Doesnāt seem ideal to not have results of a randomized US trial.
It definitely makes me very hesitant. Data gets falsified a lot at times (not meaning anything specific to this). A lot of money is at stake. The virus isnāt deadly to most and the bar is low for ādid it workā if weāre comparing it to the flu vaccine.
Just being honest, someone could put a placebo in there and few would know without randomized tests if anyone falsified data. With so much money at stake - people do weird things for money. People could think they were protected when they arenāt and head out. Some would still get terribly sick and all they would have to say is, āwell we tried.ā Most would be fine. Most are fine anyway. Itās akin to other fake cures being promoted. If 80% (making up a number) do fine with ānothing,ā then someone doing fine with X āhappensā 4 out of 5 times whether X was there or not.
Iāve been wondering that about Russiaās quick āvaccineā already. Last I knew they didnāt even provide data to the public, so no need to falsify it on their end. Are they just doing something to give people confidence letting natural selection figure things out?
Iām pretty positive weāll be waiting to see what real results show. Itāll just be with the āgeneral populationā as the guinea pigs. And we might have to look hard to find data. That depends upon how things get reported.
YMMV
The worst possible outcome if a COVID-19 vaccine is approved without sufficient testing for safety and effectiveness is that it is unsafe and/or ineffective, strengthening the anti-vaccine activists, so that when a COVID-19 vaccine that is actually safe and effective comes out, not enough people will get it. And then uptake of other vaccines will also fall, leaving the US ridden with vaccine-preventable diseases. The US will then become one of those countries where travelers must show vaccine records for various vaccine-preventable diseases to enter other countries.
Dr. Fauci had a slightly different take and that was once a vaccine is approved ā even if its not very good ā people will flock to it and decline to participate in new trials which could help find a much better vaccine.
I was a hospital pharmacist for 38 years and I have never known there to be an āadjustmentā of a flu vaccine if needed. I am appalled that doctors would say such a ludicrous thing. Surely they know more about the whole process and the manufacturing time needed than to say such a thing. Wow.
The worst possible outcome if a COVID-19 vaccine is approved without sufficient testing for safety and effectiveness is that it is unsafe and/or ineffective and people die who thought they were more protected so didnāt take precautions to avoid it.
The second worst thing is people get affected with what might be long term or lifelong side effects curtailing activities they loved doing.
And both groups spread it around making it even bigger than it is now so anyone still trying hard to avoid it due to being in very high risk groups have less of a chance to do so.
Then add the part about people distrusting āanyā vaccine and the part about not having volunteers for trials of potentially good options.
@Mwfan1921 and @Creekland
Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts.
I too think the coming season could well see fewer cases of the flu. I also think that some people who were sick in late Feb/early March (if not earlier) may have had Covid-19 without knowing it. Iām in NJ and I find it hard to believe the east coast saw such significant spread so early in the official game without the virus having taken root earlier than anyone guessed.
Whether this year is a light flu year or not will depend upon how much people keep up the anti ābugā habits. If too many ditch them, it wonāt be any different than a regular year.
I couldnāt agree more. Iām thinking the impact will be very different depending where you are.
Thereās a lot going on āinside medicine.ā CDC telling states to be prepared to distribute vaccine by Nov. 1? Effectiveness of plasma? Validation of steroid treatment. CD on whether asymptomatic people should be tested.
Just trying to bump this up!
Validation of steroid treatment was great to read about - even if it only helped 1/3 of the patients at best. Itās still promising and was at least real trials. Time will tell on plasma.
Thereās no way Iām going to trust a vaccine rushed out by Nov 1st. I see too much that could be wrong due to ulterior motives. If others wish to, feel free.
Weāre having a big surge in our area. I feel our best decision is to be super cautious and mostly stay on our farm while the tidal wave (hopefully) rolls over.
I would not trust a vaccine either at this point, until fully vetted. Still isolating, probably more than most, until a safe vaccine or reliably effective treatment is found. Lots of progress, so that is hopeful.
I was hoping this thread would continue but saw it kind of fading to page 3 and wanted to bump it. The medical news and info that comes on this thread has been really helpful. Thanks to all who have contributed.