Did you read my post?
“And even among those who have high enough stats, there would be many who don’t apply even if finances aren’t the reason.”
Note that there are several Ivy-equivalents/near-Ivies that give big merit awards.
Obviously they are very difficult to get, but if someone doesn’t try for those, that tells you something vs. someone who does.
A few points, not necessarily connected:
The last few studies I have seen is showing that since the ability of non-college educated young people to earn a living wage is declining, the marginal value of a BA is actually going up.
But other than this empirical evidence, Rocket, I agree with much of what you post. But it’s hard to argue you with the data- you may believe that the value of a college degree is declining, but try supporting a family without one.
@rocket88:
“If this becomes true, I see the majority of private colleges, which charge similar tuition to the elites, disappearing, or drastically altering their business model.”
Note that non-elite privates tend to discount heavily from the list price, with almost everyone receiving merit and/or fin aid, so almost no one pays the list price.
“But other than this empirical evidence, Rocket, I agree with much of what you post. But it’s hard to argue you with the data- you may believe that the value of a college degree is declining, but try supporting a family without one.”
The demand for college among the middle class is still very high.
When asked, 70% of people say kids don’t need a four year college degree. But 70% of people say their kid needs one.
It will take a very long time for middle class parents to actually walk the talk about how a college degree isn’t a necessity. Even though there’s plenty of jobs/income data that supports that concept.
A kid without sophisticated trade or technical skills needs a college degree.
Guy on my block- no college, owns a big regional landscaping company. He started mowing lawns-- but along the way, picked up the ability to fix equipment, create routes for his trucks using software to minimize down time, figure out algorithms which tell him how many temps to bring on before a snowfall vs. how many he needs afterwards.
He’s exhibit A for why college isn’t for everyone.
Exhibit B is a young woman a few doors down living with her parents and working as an aide in a daycare center. Tried college, couldn’t hack it. If she ever makes more than $12 an hour (adjusted for inflation) it will be a miracle. No health insurance.
If your kid doesn’t go to college, everyone likes to think their kid is exhibit A. But the empirical evidence suggests that this isn’t the likely scenario.
Our kids both attended colleges that now are in that just bout $70,000 a year range. We paid then…and we would pay now. We were a two income professional income family. One whole income paid for colleges. That one income would be sufficiently high to do so now…just as it was in 2003-2010 when we did it.
So…family decision here…yes…it would be worth it.
Now…having said all of that…if we had not had the financial resources to fund the costs…our kids would have looked at different colleges.
ETA…these were not elite schools…but they are expensive private universities.
A number of colleges actually claim they spend more per student than the list price they charge. Tuition is increasing faster than the rate of inflation each and every year. This is not sustainable, regardless of what you think the degree is worth. This is the same problem that we have with our healthcare. The system will break. Not if but when. Tuition is a lot less in UK, Canada, Australia, and it’s even lower in non-English speaking countries. Doesn’t this sound familiar?
I’m not sure which system you are referring to NJParent when you say the system will break.
Pell Grants? That could break. There don’t seem to be a lot of folks in Washington right now who care about low income kids.
Hofstra university charging as much as Harvard (or close to it?) That could break. At some point, even the people who are now stretching to send their kids to Hofstra (and I know some of them) are going to realize that risking their retirement so their kid can avoid attending CUNY or SUNY is insane. (no knock on Hofstra, but there are better colleges in NY state, public, private, and cheaper.)
A wide range of colleges to meet a wide range of academic abilities, financial capability, and need to be close to home/far from home? The non-English speaking countries don’t have that. And I certainly hope THAT doesn’t break. Our system isn’t perfect, but we don’t determine a person’s entire adulthood and livelihood based on a single set of tests in the 8th grade- you go to university, you go to trade school, you graduate and get a job as a bricklayer. That wouldn’t sit well with me.
So which system is going to break???
@blossom I’m referring to higher education in general. Sure, there’re plenty of people willing to pay whatever the Harvards, the Stanfords charge, but an increasing majority will have tougher time to pay for higher education. Sure, there’re still options in higher education, but their qualities are vastly different, just like in heathcare.
@1NJParent: “Tuition is a lot less in UK, Canada, Australia, and it’s even lower in non-English speaking countries.”
Every uni you’ve heard of outside the US (besides some in Japan) is a public.
In-state public tuition tends to comparable to tuition at those non-American schools (besides those who charge no tuition).
My family is in the 100% EFC (for 2 kids) range. We started saving for our non-existent kids’ college education the moment we entered the work force, when we were earning well under $100k per year. 27 years ago we calculated a degree from a school similar to the school my husband graduated from (CWRU), was going to cost about $70k (we weren’t far off!), so we made that our target x 2. 22 years later and thankfully we have enough to cover college education. We maxed our contributions; took very few extravagant vacations (about every other year someplace local and a european vacation every 6ish years); drove every car 10+ years; bought affordable homes is moderate income suburban neighborhoods; sent our kids to public schools; paid our credit card off in full every month. We sacrificed some “luxuries” while around us families bought vacation homes (or time shares), jet skis, boats, vacationed on property at Disney, gave their kids new cars for 16th birthdays or the latest gaming systems for Christmas. Yes, it irks me a bit that we are paying full freight to send our kids to college because we did the responsible thing and saved money while The Jonses are getting financial aid because they don’t have any assets; and as selfish as it sounds (roll your eyes here or gasp in indignation), yes, it occasionally gets under my skin that my full freight and taxes are subsidizing a lower income student. I am grateful that we don’t have to rely on a student loans and our kids will graduate debt free and thank goodness we were not faced with medical, legal or financial hardships.
OP @greentravel: Yeah, $70k per year out of pocket is “too much” for most students/families at most schools. We said “enough”, even though, technically, we can make it work. We also said $60k was too much for us, $54K was too much, $45k was on the bubble. Admittedly our kids are not in the elite school realm stats-wise. Fiscal responsibility wore off on our kids and we weren’t willing to bet on an optimistic what might be scenario post graduation. One selected a private LAC with good merit $ that brought it’s $56K cost of attendance to just under $40k per year. The other selected an in-state flagship at $25k, when I suspect she really would rather have selected Fordham from among the schools that accepted her. But, clearly, we were prepared to spend $70k per year for the “right” school. Turns out the “right” school can be found for less, although it’s likely not as prestigous. When will it be “enough” for the Joneses? Who knows. What fuels the frenzy? Certainly, the student loan industry plays a part. One upping your peers, another part. I do know you have to be willing to get off the hamster wheel and personal/familial wealth definitely makes that easier!
Wow, y’all so far I have read on this thred that a kid that can’t get a scholarship to a state flagship or directional is
"not good enough, "not academically strong enough ", “[stupid in the application strategy]”. CC Posters like to be dismissive of doughnut hole families. Yeah, the doughnut hole really does exist and just because these families only represent a very small portion of the population doesn’t mean their interests and concerns have less meaning or value or are not worthy of discussion.
That’s like asking me whether a Rolls Royce is worth it.
I’m sure its value can be well documented.
But I can’t afford the price tag, so it really doesn’t matter.
Even some top privates discount as well. For example, USC offers half off to NMSF’s, so instead of $72k/yr, the cost is $46k. In comparison, instate UC can be $35k for those paying sticker at instate rates. Sure, that leaves a delta of $11k/yr, but a discounted USC might offer the better value.
So don’t be scared off by sticker, rocket88.
NJParent, not trying to be argumentative, but not sure what parallel you are trying to make with healthcare.
A person shows up in cardiac arrest at an ER- by law, they will be treated, and by practice, most of the time, they will get the same care, appropriate to their diagnosis and other symptoms, whether they are at a local community hospital ER or a top flight academic medical center.
The reality- that an indigent person is not going to be able to pay the $150K or so bill that they’ll get four days later, vs. the middle class person who might end up declaring bankruptcy if after their insurance kicks in they can’t afford to pay their co-pay, or that the wealthy person will write the check for their care AND another 100K donation out of gratitude- doesn’t change the quality of care that these patients will get in the ER.
This is the opposite of our higher ed system. Most poor kids don’t get anywhere NEAR the U Chicago’s and JHU’s and whatnot-- not because they can’t pay tuition, but because they have spent 12 years in terrible schools where kids in HS read at a second grade level. It’s not the ER- where the law requires medically appropriate life saving measures for everyone who gets wheeled in.
What point are you trying to make here??? And I for one am not rooting for the system to “Break”. I’m rooting for parents and kids to become smarter about higher ed. No need to sacrifice your retirement to pay big bucks for your son who plans to go to college to major in Beer Pong. No need to impoverish yourself to send your daughter to college when she wants to serve in the military first- and think about college down the road. Why force a kid who isn’t ready and slept through HS to go to college “because maybe he’ll get a wake up call”.
I know so many parents in debt, kid has no degree. The loans come due, the kid is stuck in the HS job because one semester or two semesters at college and then flunking out doesn’t give you lots of professional opportunities.
None of these situations are a surprise to people who know the kids btw. The kids went off to college with zero interest in academics, no desire to read a book, no aspirations beyond their social life. Why would a parent pay big bucks for a kid to party out of state??? And yet they do. But college is- at the end of the day- for learning and intellectual growth. And if a kid doesn’t go to class, that situation is not sustainable long term.
So no- I don’t hope it breaks. I hope parents and kids do a better job deciding if the kid is ready for college, and if so, what kind of financial investment makes sense.
Actually, it really doesn’t, since that same student can attend an instate public or community college for an education… (Plus a donut hole is a bad analogy, since FinAid is linear, not round. Yes, I know the term has popped up in the popular blog press, but that doesn’t make it correct)
Regardless, the point, i think, is that a desired college (however defined) costs more than a family can ‘afford’ to pay (per FAFSA or Profile). But the key is “desired” college, which then raises the idea of desired watches or fancy cars.
Are you saying you’ll get the same care regardless of what type of insurance, if any, you carry?
The point I’m making is that higher education and healthcare are the two areas where the cost has become astronomical and is still increasing at such a rate that at some point it will become unaffordable for most Americans.
@PurpleTitan I take your point that most colleges outside of US are public.
They still charge a lot less for international students, whom they presumably don’t subsidize.
This is off topic to this thread. But YES, if a person goes to the ER with cardiac arrest, they will get the same treatment regardless of the type of insurance they carry. The ER doc treating you has NO idea what kind of insurance, if any, you have…at all.
Actually even at my doctors office…the doc had NO idea what kind of health insurance I have. His billing office does…and I do…but the doctor…nope.
ER is different and is just one, hopefully rare, type of care.