I think this is a tricky question, and while we probably all agree it’s unfortunate that some kids feel they should apply to so many schools, they are not necessarily wrong to do so (if they can afford all of those fees!).
The awful reality is that if kids are applying to tippy top schools, the results will be incredibly unpredictable. And compounding that problem, as more of these kids’ “safety” schools are concerned with “yield protection” and putting unusual weight on demonstrated interest, top students are being denied or waitlisted at schools that used to be sure things, so the safeties no longer feel safe. So now kids are applying to both an exploding number of reaches AND safeties! But it is not necessarily unwise.
If you spend a few minutes watching “college decision results” videos on youtube, or look at kids’ results on admits.com, you will see that among kids who apply to 15+ top schools, a lot of them have very unpredictable-looking results. They might get into 2-5 of their 15 top schools, and it will not be obvious why. Maybe they get into Yale, Bowdoin and Brown but not Colgate, UPenn, Cornell, Georgetown, UC Berkeley, Northeastern, Johns Hopkins, Middlebury, Duke, Swarthmore, UMichigan and Tulane. If they had not applied to Y, B, & B, their results might have netted them only their state school, when in reality by casting a wide net they get to go to Yale or Brown if they choose. The truth is that a lot of kids do get into just 1 or 2 top schools. And all you need is 1.
I agree that the unqualified or under qualified kids are likely to get rejected by all of their Uber-reaches if they aren’t competitive enough students, but for the competitive kids, they really can’t count on getting into those top schools if they just pick 2 or 3 reaches in 2019.
The essays are extensive, but at some point a reasonable portion of them can be recycled at least in part. But definitely applying to 15+ top schools does mean > 15 essays.
Now for kids who are applying to somewhat less selective schools, I would not think there would be the same logic for having so many reach schools–things tend to get much more predictable as you are looking at the wonderful schools that are below the top 20 in US News and World Report.
Some comments imply that you can’t do an excellent job on all of those applications, and if you don’t pour your absolute heart and soul into knowing every fiber of a college and your essay doesn’t demonstrate that, you don’t have a chance of getting in, but that is simply not true. Case in point, my friend’s child applied to Williams 2 years ago and did not even write the “optional” essay, and got in. But he did pour his efforts into his first choice essay at Dartmouth and didn’t get in. It is just more random to us onlookers than that.
I wish it didn’t make sense for anyone to apply to more than 10 colleges. Or that there was a cap at 10 or some other arbitrary number. Then all of the acceptance rates would go up, people wouldn’t panic so much, everything would be better. This is a bad vicious cycle, and many people who abhor it still can’t help but contribute to it, because it really can be to their advantage.
Lots of kids with fee waivers are applying to giant numbers of schools because there is no cost but the time to write the essays, in addition to kids whose parents can afford many application fees. This is also driving up the numbers of applications, reducing the acceptance rates, driving panic. Ugh. I wish there was a governing body that could put limits. What is the solution?