<p>The students from upper middle class families are probably not getting need-based aid to make 4-year colleges free. For the big merit awards at the 4-year colleges, it would mainly be those with the highest achievement in high school (who would not be as good fits for community colleges due to being more likely to want to take courses beyond what community colleges offer), but a much larger number of college bound students would not find big merit.</p>
<p>In other words, plenty of college bound students (perhaps the 2.8 to 3.4 GPA range in high school) from families who would not get significant need-based aid may find that paying list price for a less selective 4-year college may not make as much sense as going to community college and transferring, either to a “better” 4-year college, or at least saving money if going to the same less selective 4-year college.</p>