<p>nbachris,</p>
<p>Yup just look at them now.. However, look at them before now, before your parents had you and were kids themselves. That will give you a better understanding of my point. </p>
<p>Asian countries have taken turns being the cheap labor place at different times. As they develope an educated workforce they move out of the physical labor side of production into the thinking side of production.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Who says they will always have to use Tanks?
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Well, I dunno about you, but the past history of the CCP isn't exactly making me willing to assume otherwise. Scared dictatorial regimes tend to resort to force. This one has shown themselves willing to do so on more than one occasion. </p>
<p>
[quote]
The middle buys.. this drives an economy.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Unless you have an export-oriented economy...</p>
<p>
[quote]
he poor don't recieve enough education to be anythng much more than physical labor and the wealthy have no need to develope themselves as they already have wealth and there are not enough of them to drive advancement.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Actually, the wealthy in China are surprisingly innovative (as they are in most of the world). Don't be too quick to discount the value of wealthy individuals. </p>
<p>
[quote]
I mean I do understand your point about differences but that's no different than here, just a standards of living difference.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>I don't know about that. Culture plays a role as well as historical circumstance. Look at how India is still struggling to deal with the historical weight of the caste system.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Try to buy some oceanfront property and compare it to land in the midwest... which cost more? Pretty much the same all over isn't it?
[/quote]
</p>
<p>The gap in lifestyle between Dayton and Los Angeles isn't nearly as pronounced as the gap between Shanghai and Korla...</p>
<p>ucla,</p>
<p>"Who says they will always have to use Tanks?<br>
Well, I dunno about you, but the past history of the CCP isn't exactly making me willing to assume otherwise. Scared dictatorial regimes tend to resort to force. This one has shown themselves willing to do so on more than one occasion. "</p>
<p>But the responses are changing as time goes by. Has the level of serverity gone up or down? I know they aren't going to become swell guys overnight but responses are changing. </p>
<p>"Quote:
The middle buys.. this drives an economy.<br>
Unless you have an export-oriented economy..."</p>
<p>Well, if only a few benefit from the export economy how does the country advance? The aisan countries that have advanced have all reached a point where the products they export, they can afford to own for the most part. The middle buys and everybody benefits. </p>
<p>"Quote:
he poor don't recieve enough education to be anythng much more than physical labor and the wealthy have no need to develope themselves as they already have wealth and there are not enough of them to drive advancement.<br>
Actually, the wealthy in China are surprisingly innovative (as they are in most of the world). Don't be too quick to discount the value of wealthy individuals."</p>
<p>Yes, I was just telling myself how wonderful it was that Prince Charles had discovered the cure for cancer the other day..:) </p>
<p>I don't think many people of wealth are the innovators (the creators) They are often the financiers. Certainly there are a few that develope educationally and innovate, but not enough to drive an economy as they don't necessarily have the need to advance. </p>
<p>"Quote:
I mean I do understand your point about differences but that's no different than here, just a standards of living difference.<br>
I don't know about that. Culture plays a role as well as historical circumstance. Look at how India is still struggling to deal with the historical weight of the caste system." </p>
<p>I meant on the most basic terms. </p>
<p>"Quote:
Try to buy some oceanfront property and compare it to land in the midwest... which cost more? Pretty much the same all over isn't it?<br>
The gap in lifestyle between Dayton and Los Angeles isn't nearly as pronounced as the gap between Shanghai and Korla..."</p>
<p>Hey my 40 acres of land east of me is still worth the same amount of cash as it was 30 years ago when I bought it. The piece of land on sit on near the water has increased 6-7 times in value. The cost of a home where I live is 5 times more than the cost of a home near my land. So it is all relative. That's my point.</p>
<p>Quote: "continue to pollute the air...."</p>
<p>You obviously haven't seen An Inconvenient Truth. America is leading the World in the pollution of the atomosphere and we are the biggest contributers to global warming. I mean, basically every family in America has 1+ cars.</p>
<p>
[quote]
You obviously haven't seen An Inconvenient Truth. America is leading the World in the pollution of the atomosphere and we are the biggest contributers to global warming. I mean, basically every family in America has 1+ cars.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>It's kind of convenient how after Western Europe and America have reached the peak of their industrial development, that they suddenly develop this environmental conscience that seeks to forbid heavily populated countries like Brazil, India, and China from seeking to build a better life for their citizens. Maybe we should simulataneously slap back-taxes of pollution on the already developed countries whilst trying to prevent pollution from late bloomers.</p>
<p>Not to mention that America still is the world's leading polluter.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Well, if only a few benefit from the export economy how does the country advance? The aisan countries that have advanced have all reached a point where the products they export, they can afford to own for the most part. The middle buys and everybody benefits.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Even in Japan, fairly obviously the best developed Asian nation, the population still doesn't benefit from the products they export like those buying them do. It has shocked me continually while living in Japan to discover how many products that I enjoy in the US are simply too expensive to own here...or just not sold at all.</p>
<p>Besides, who said that every Chinese hasn't benefitted? Most economic reports I've read, as well as the professors I've spoken with/taken courses with, all agree that everyone in China has benefitted from the economic reforms. Some have just benefitted more quickly than others.</p>
<p>I mean, what's a better alternative? Maoism redux?</p>
<p>
[quote]
Yes, I was just telling myself how wonderful it was that Prince Charles had discovered the cure for cancer the other day..
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Way to use isolated examples. You don't think that the people heading up Pfizer are incredibly wealthy? Yet if the cure for cancer is going to come out of anywhere, it'll probably come out of a big bad corporation like that, headed by fabulously wealthy folks. </p>
<p>
[quote]
I don't think many people of wealth are the innovators (the creators) They are often the financiers. Certainly there are a few that develope educationally and innovate, but not enough to drive an economy as they don't necessarily have the need to advance.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>It's easy to forget how many people get rich by earning their way there. Not everyone on the Forbes list is a Walton. Think Gates, the Google duo, Jobs, Horie (until he got canned), etc. New industries always have innovators. Once China gets to a point that they can take part in a new industry, they'll have innovators as well. </p>
<p>
[quote]
But the responses are changing as time goes by. Has the level of serverity gone up or down? I know they aren't going to become swell guys overnight but responses are changing.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Two things about the CCP:</p>
<ol>
<li> They've grown more clever at suppressing their citizens. That does bode well for your argument.</li>
<li> They've had few serious incidents like Tiananmen as of late. However, I recall a strike recently that led to three being shot by the PLA. That old guard belief in smashing any sort of dissent is still present...and waiting for the right opportunity to come out again.</li>
</ol>
<p>
[quote]
Hey my 40 acres of land east of me is still worth the same amount of cash as it was 30 years ago when I bought it. The piece of land on sit on near the water has increased 6-7 times in value. The cost of a home where I live is 5 times more than the cost of a home near my land. So it is all relative. That's my point.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>It's worth the same in relative or absolute terms?</p>
<p>Besides, just because your land hasn't gone up in value doesn't mean that your lifestyle hasn't gotten better. I sincerely doubt that my lifestyle in LA is wildly better than yours. Nor do I believe that the gap between yours and my lifestyle even begins to mirror that of the coasters and inlanders in China. Nor would it have 100 years ago. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that a lot of this comes down to breadbaskets, Mandarins, and historical focuses.</p>
<p>I haven't bothered reading any of these posts, but the slave wages has caught my eye. I cannot help but laugh at these ludicrous theories. Nike, Walmart, w/e..pays much more than the minimum wage of that country. Why do you think so many Chinese, or Bangladeshi, or w/e..want to work in one of those factories over their local businesses? Just one more liberal myth I guess.</p>
<p>It's predicted that within the next 5-10 years the Chinese economy will begin to slow, however, it will not approach recession levels. This fluctuation is akin to the economic fluctuations experienced by the American economy in the 1950s. However, China also faces another problem, and that is its enormous population. This population, although it fuels demand through purchasing power, is too large to achieve a decent standard of living across the board. Therefore, poverty and worker explotation will remain the mainstay. </p>
<p>P.S. The workers want to work in the large factories simply because it's easy to find jobs there. In local businesses the owner tends to keep the family in the business, and sometimes allows in a family friend. Also, the factory is more stable, while a small business can go out of business. </p>
<p>India is bent on following the same track, however, its uncontrolled population growth will soon make it a more lucrative labor pool market.</p>
<p>
[quote]
However, China also faces another problem, and that is its enormous population. This population, although it fuels demand through purchasing power, is too large to achieve a decent standard of living across the board. Therefore, poverty and worker explotation will remain the mainstay.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>I agree with this. I went back to Shanghai a few weeks ago on vacation.</p>
<p>The apartment that my paternal grandparents own is a fairly small 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom. However, it's just about the biggest anyone's gonna get unless he's filthy rich simply because there's just no room for many people to live in anything other than the 20th floor of a huge building.</p>
<p>
[quote]
It's predicted that within the next 5-10 years the Chinese economy will begin to slow, however, it will not approach recession levels.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Maybe. But some economists also predict that by year 203X (or somewhere along those lines, I forget the exact date) China will surpass the United States as the largest economic body in the world mainly due to its huge population. They're currently third behind the USA (1st) and Japan (2nd).</p>
<p>ucla,</p>
<p>"Even in Japan, fairly obviously the best developed Asian nation, the population still doesn't benefit from the products they export like those buying them do. It has shocked me continually while living in Japan to discover how many products that I enjoy in the US are simply too expensive to own here...or just not sold at all."</p>
<p>examples? Could these exclusions be based on cultural differences? </p>
<p>"Besides, who said that every Chinese hasn't benefitted? Most economic reports I've read, as well as the professors I've spoken with/taken courses with, all agree that everyone in China has benefitted from the economic reforms. Some have just benefitted more quickly than others."</p>
<p>The old rising waters floats all boats. </p>
<p>"I mean, what's a better alternative? Maoism redux?"
beats me, I'm not looking to create a democracy there.</p>
<p>"Quote:
Yes, I was just telling myself how wonderful it was that Prince Charles had discovered the cure for cancer the other day.. </p>
<p>Way to use isolated examples. You don't think that the people heading up Pfizer are incredibly wealthy? Yet if the cure for cancer is going to come out of anywhere, it'll probably come out of a big bad corporation like that, headed by fabulously wealthy folks. "</p>
<p>Here's where you are confused you are assuming those with wealth have the ideas..not necessarily true. Those with wealth BUY the ideas. Do you think the people that run Pfizer do the research? They roll up their sleves and get to work in the lab? no hardly, they employ middle class biochemists to put the time in to create drugs and find the cures. You are equating intelligence with wealth, I disagree. It can occur, but it is certainly not automatic or Paris Hilton would cure cancer..:) Sometimes wealth is just inherited, it is money, not intelligence that gets passed on. </p>
<p>"Quote:
I don't think many people of wealth are the innovators (the creators) They are often the financiers. Certainly there are a few that develope educationally and innovate, but not enough to drive an economy as they don't necessarily have the need to advance. </p>
<p>It's easy to forget how many people get rich by earning their way there. Not everyone on the Forbes list is a Walton. Think Gates, the Google duo, Jobs, Horie (until he got canned), etc. New industries always have innovators. Once China gets to a point that they can take part in a new industry, they'll have innovators as well. "</p>
<p>Even Gates and Jobs hire people to bring new ideas to the table. Gates doesn't/hasn't create that much beyond the first go. He spends his time reviewing others ideas and seeing if they will fit into his goals for MS. </p>
<p>My point has been until China can develope a stronger middle class it will be limited, just as the US was. It's about live bodies. How many live bodies can the top 1% wealth provide to the science pool? Compared to the % of middle class? </p>
<p>The law of large numbers applies here. The wealthy simply don't have enough offspring to commit to education and that offspring doesn't necessarily have the drive to educate themselves. It's statistical probability. Do you understand my point? </p>
<p>Quote:
But the responses are changing as time goes by. Has the level of serverity gone up or down? I know they aren't going to become swell guys overnight but responses are changing. </p>
<p>Two things about the CCP:</p>
<ol>
<li>They've grown more clever at suppressing their citizens. That does bode well for your argument.</li>
<li>They've had few serious incidents like Tiananmen as of late. However, I recall a strike recently that led to three being shot by the PLA. That old guard belief in smashing any sort of dissent is still present...and waiting for the right opportunity to come out again.</li>
</ol>
<p>Quote:
Hey my 40 acres of land east of me is still worth the same amount of cash as it was 30 years ago when I bought it. The piece of land on sit on near the water has increased 6-7 times in value. The cost of a home where I live is 5 times more than the cost of a home near my land. So it is all relative. That's my point. </p>
<p>It's worth the same in relative or absolute terms?</p>
<p>Besides, just because your land hasn't gone up in value doesn't mean that your lifestyle hasn't gotten better. I sincerely doubt that my lifestyle in LA is wildly better than yours. Nor do I believe that the gap between yours and my lifestyle even begins to mirror that of the coasters and inlanders in China. Nor would it have 100 years ago. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that a lot of this comes down to breadbaskets, Mandarins, and historical focuses.</p>
<p>Sorry had to cut and run..:)
To continue
"Quote:
Hey my 40 acres of land east of me is still worth the same amount of cash as it was 30 years ago when I bought it. The piece of land on sit on near the water has increased 6-7 times in value. The cost of a home where I live is 5 times more than the cost of a home near my land. So it is all relative. That's my point.
It's worth the same in relative or absolute terms?"</p>
<p>?? it is worth exactly what I paid for it 30 years ago. Actually I am constantly offerred much less. My home on the other side of the mountains could sell in days for 6 or 7 times what I paid for it. I own the land and even though it hasn't increased in market value, they aren't making anymore of it. So I can wait. </p>
<p>"Besides, just because your land hasn't gone up in value doesn't mean that your lifestyle hasn't gotten better. I sincerely doubt that my lifestyle in LA is wildly better than yours. Nor do I believe that the gap between yours and my lifestyle even begins to mirror that of the coasters and inlanders in China. Nor would it have 100 years ago."</p>
<p>?? confusing. We don't have the same demographics to start with< I'm old. :) The lifestyle in LA is more expensive than where I live and certainly far more expensive than where my other property is. Location, location, location determines value.</p>