Is China really developing, booming, whatever?

College Confidential Community
1

<p>Hi there,
Sorry, I'm from Europe and not in a very "globalized" city. Newspapers and current affairs documents always talk about China expanding, growing and chinese people becoming important business partners in future of the whole world... but the only chinese people that I see in my daily life are the people selling cheap toys in China town!
What I'm asking is: are they developing worldwide or just as a country?
Are there some interesting articles on the topic, especially about chinese people in other countries?</p>

<p>You see, I am also very interested in studying the chinese language since it's very complex and I like complex things :) and I like their ancient history.
But I don't know whether it will be useful for me to study chinese if I live in European cities... the people from our china towns are not always very friendly as they might be in America... they hardly talk at all! Except when it comes to manga and anime... but they speak our language.</p>

<p>So... could you tell me what you think about this?</p>

<p>Will mandarin be useful worldwide/in Europe, or will China be the only place I will be able to practice the language?</p>

2

<p>Its bubbling. China is developing to be the Japan of the mid-late 80s.</p>

3

<p>China wants to become the next Soviet Union. Huge factories, Huge dams, space program, settling areas of their country that will never be able to support people on that large of a scale (china's nothern tibet plateau to USSR's siberia).</p>

4

<p>Actually, unlike USSR China has a viable and robust economy (for the most part) something USSR never had which is thanks to China's pro-market forays. But I wouldn't be surprised if it ended like how Japan did. When everyone and their grandma is talking about how China will be the greatest super power ever and going into Chinese learning centers, thats the time to go the other way.</p>

5

<p>Well, china actually has a few warm water ports and isn't wacked-out paraniod (yet)</p>

6

<p>China will continue to develope as long they pay their workers next to nothing and are willing to polute their water,air and soil for what amounts to measly dollars or euros. American capitalists have found the communist system to be very profitable. So I don't know if China is developing as anything but a place to provide cheap labor and production without fear of evironmental damage fines.</p>

7

<p>Development doesn't just come from cheap labor alone. Anyone who thinks this needs to look into it more deeply. Its a nation that has been impoverished for decades and begun expanding the past decade or so due to the government embracing more pro-market policies. </p>

<p>I am not concerned about any of that. The problem with China depends on the structure of the country. The bedrock financial system of the nation is shaky. Due to the large number of investments you have banks giving out bad loans. China hasn't seen a recession in its recent history. The financial condition can be gauges by observing its reaction during stress not when all things are pretty and nice (case in point: 1998 asian Tigers). </p>

<p>There are greater problems including social unrest and a great divide between the rich and the poor. China essentially NEEDS to make economic progress to strive off social unrest. The financial system is actually balanced on social unrest as well. A lot of the bad loans have been given to projects which serve minimal economic purpose but employ millions of Chinese. Thats unsound. </p>

<p>You also have foreign money pouring in which is always fast cash. It comes in when things are nice and goes away when it becomes ugly (Russia and Asian crisis '98). As soon as the remninbi is floated and it appreciates (probably around 20-30%) you will see foreign money coming out and cashing in on the loot. </p>

<p>These are simply a few of the problems in China. American capitalists are actually the reason why it has survived from civil unrest. Communist proposals like giving bad loans to unprofitable businesses just to employ people is a shaky proposal that is a surefire way to fail during a blip in the growth.</p>

8

<p>mahras,</p>

<p>Good point. The non-performing loan issue is a big problem. As is the general lack of respect for intellectual property, honesty in R&D, problems with brain drain, and a gap between the highest and lowest earners that would make the US and UK blush. </p>

<p>I suspect (and many people greater than myself agree) that the CCP sees itself as holding the lid on a pot that's ready to boil over any time now. The only thing giving them the weight to hold that lid down is growth in the economy. The second that the economy goes sour, the CCP no longer has any real legitimacy-- when was the last time you heard about a "communist" reform in the People's Republic of China? Regimes can only last so long on a lie.</p>

9

<p>
[quote]
China will continue to develope as long they pay their workers next to nothing and are willing to polute their water,air and soil for what amounts to measly dollars or euros.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Keep in mind that while a a few "measly dollars or Euros" may not carry far in their nation of origin, a person can live fairly well on $5 a day in China. Don't confuse what it takes YOU to live with what it takes the average person in Chaohu.</p>

<p>
[quote]
American capitalists have found the communist system to be very profitable.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Communist? China's about as communist as North Korea is a democracy. "Democratic People's Republic of Korea," anyone?</p>

<p>
[quote]
So I don't know if China is developing as anything but a place to provide cheap labor and production without fear of evironmental damage fines.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>You're right about something here...but for the wrong reasons. The PRC is, at present, mostly growing on cheap labor and low-skill industry. That's bad for them. Innovation is as rare in China right now as intelligent debate about illegal immigration is in the US. Someone from Brookings (or was it AEI?) said on NPR, quite astutely, that while the Chinese factory makes $10 on every iPod made, Apple makes $100 for the design. China needs to be the country doing the designing, not the low-yield stuff. Unfortunately, with all the recent debacles over property rights, I'm not sure it's going to happen anytime soon.</p>

10

<p>You mean public works projects like the ones we had? :) </p>

<p>Sorry. I've looked deep enough. China has a growing gap between the wealthy and poor because it's funded on their inexpensive labor costs. A few gain, others get barely enough to get by. </p>

<p>You say China is the Japan of the 80's, not Korea? Taiwann? Each asia country has gone through rounds of being the next ..... mainly based on it's ability to provide cheap labor. As labor costs rise another country is found (Vietnam?) that is willing to provide low cost labor and ignore their own environment issues for a quick dollar. </p>

<p>As you say China NEEDs to make economic prgress to stave off social unrest. Can they do it by having the majority of labor make a dollar or two a day? And would civil unrest be a bad thing for China?</p>

11

<p>
[quote]
Sorry. I've looked deep enough. China has a growing gap between the wealthy and poor because it's funded on their inexpensive labor costs. A few gain, others get barely enough to get by.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>There are many reasons for an economic gap. One of the largest has been the speed with which urban economic centers have developed while the more rural inland portion of the nation has been slow to develop. Listen to NPR's wonderful series on travelling from the coast all the way to the West. Also, consider reading the past year or so's articles in the Economist (they've had some great pieces on the gap).</p>

<p>
[quote]
You say China is the Japan of the 80's, not Korea? Taiwann?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>China's growth and issues far more closely mirror those of Korea and Taiwan. It's particularly interesting how the problems that brought down the house of cards in Japan (oh, I meant bubble! Dear me!) are also threatening to end the decade or so of growth in the PRC as well. That, and the rampant outbreaks of Sinophobia are almost exactly parallel to Japanophobia of the late 80s and early 90s.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Each asia country has gone through rounds of being the next ..... mainly based on it's ability to provide cheap labor.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>However, this is where the comparison ends... Japan didn't become successful in the latter half of the 20th-century by providing cheap labor. Japan became successful by providing high-quality labor and innovation. Japan ceased being a cheap labor center by the 70s. South Korea and Taiwan have since largely moved past cheap labor mode as well. </p>

<p>
[quote]
Can they do it by having the majority of labor make a dollar or two a day?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>You do realize that one or two dollars a day in some parts of the PRC isn't a bad wage, right? Remember, not everyone has your CPI. </p>

<p>
[quote]
And would civil unrest be a bad thing for China?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>It is when you consider that a regime that has shown dogged determination to stay in power is currently in control. Also, consider the fact that China is a NUCLEAR power. The last thing we need is another USSR "missing missles" debacle. Furthermore, just watch a good portion of western China try to secede the moment the CCP shows signs of losing control over the nation. That would just be DANDY for the region. Simply DANDY.</p>

12

<p>I figure I have the floor at the moment, so I'm going to reiterate a point really quickly:</p>

<p>People are quick to show the absolute terribleness of FDI or capitalism in general by saying how poor Mr. Wong in Changsha only makes $3 a day! Damn those Americans for paying him slave wages!</p>

<p>Of course, those same people forget to take into account how far $3 a day will carry poor Mr. Wong in Changsha. They don't take into account that his cost of living is not comparable to ours in absolute terms. But of course, that detracts from what makes for a great image.</p>

13

<p>Hmm interesting discussion :)</p>

<p>Actually what I asked is: will I meet as many chinese people in my daily life, on the streets in Europe, etc. - and not just in china town - in order to find a usefulness and practice of learning the chinese langauge?</p>

<p>Or do so many people study chinese languages hoping they can make a new life in China, like in the past many people migrated to the U.S.A.?</p>

<p>Anyway, carry on your discussion =)</p>

14

<p>Most second generation children of immigrants maintain at least a basic understanding of their "heritage" language. I'm sure you'll find a use for it, sometime. If not, it'll just be fun!</p>

15

<p>UCLA,</p>

<p>We actually agree more than we disagree. You've caught a point about intellectual developement that has helped Japan after the cheap labor phase in the business cycle. They all progress through it to be successful. </p>

<p>And yes, I do understand the CPI in China is much different than my own. However, (since you are the smart one) it could be compared and converted into something similar to our own for comparsion purposes. I still think after that conversion even with lower standards of living, they are making squat. </p>

<p>As long as you have only two classes of people (wealthy and poor) your country will struggle. </p>

<p>What some seem to forget is the developement of the middle class in America .... made America with every refridgerator, car and multiple TV purchased. </p>

<p>As far as civil unrest in china, it does not mean civil war. It can mean economic and social changes without firing a shot.</p>

16

<p>
[quote]
As far as civil unrest in china, it does not mean civil war. It can mean economic and social changes without firing a shot.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Are we talking about the same CCP here? The same one that used TANKS on students? </p>

<p>You're optimistic, at worst...</p>

<p>
[quote]
What some seem to forget is the developement of the middle class in America .... made America with every refridgerator, car and multiple TV purchased.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>A middle class is developing in China, albeit slowly. Unfortunately, the US was a very different country with a very different history. Though I agree that China needs to narrow the gap between rich and poor, it's not really a useful comparison. The problem really isn't FDI or the dastardly Western corporations, per se. These problems that are facing China at present are very deeply rooted in history as well. Hell, the coastal cities have almost always been better off than the inland cities.</p>

<p>Unfortunately, they weren't THAT MUCH better off...</p>

<p>
[quote]
And yes, I do understand the CPI in China is much different than my own. However, (since you are the smart one) it could be compared and converted into something similar to our own for comparsion purposes. I still think after that conversion even with lower standards of living, they are making squat.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>The average Chinese is much much better off today than they were under the Maoist regime. There's no doubt about it. In fact, even the poorest are doing considerably better these days. However, contrary to what Chairman Deng believed, not all boats floated enough. If you're in Shanghai, and you're middle class, your lifestyle is probably fairly comparable to most other Asians.</p>

<p>In Chaohu? Probably not. But you're still far better off than your parents were. You're just much more aware of what those richies in Shanghai have.</p>

17

<p>
[quote]
You say China is the Japan of the 80's, not Korea? Taiwann? Each asia country has gone through rounds of being the next ..... mainly based on it's ability to provide cheap labor.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have risen economically through technology, not cheap labour; just take a look at the world's leading electronics manufacturers: Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, etc.</p>

18

<p>There is no doubt about China's current economic growth, but with the huge decrease in population growth, there's not going to be enough people picking up the labor.</p>

19

<p>The problem in China probably won't be a lack of a labor pool. It will be a lack of an educated labor pool to keep up with the retirees of the previous generation's needs.</p>

20

<p>Ucla,</p>

<p>Who says they will always have to use Tanks? </p>

<p>And I don't necessarily agree about the differences between an american middle and what might become a chinese middle. Both are basically consumers, they buy stuff. The poor cannot buy too much stuff and the rich have no need beyond a few. The middle buys.. this drives an economy. </p>

<p>For China to move to the next phase, it has to develope a middle class. That group will be where the tech developement comes from. The poor don't recieve enough education to be anythng much more than physical labor and the wealthy have no need to develope themselves as they already have wealth and there are not enough of them to drive advancement. So the middle is where the educated labor pool comes from. </p>

<p>I mean I do understand your point about differences but that's no different than here, just a standards of living difference.
Try to buy some oceanfront property and compare it to land in the midwest...:) which cost more? Pretty much the same all over isn't it?</p>