Is National Merit PSAT scores cut-off going to be lower this year?

<p>Is the National Merit scholarship scores for the PSAT going to be lower this year? I heard it might because:</p>

<p>1) This test was said to have a harder curve and overall harder questions than last year.
2) Last year's cut-off score was too high and so College board is trying to bring it down again. </p>

<p>What do you think the cut-off score for CA will be? I got a 219. If the cutoff is 220, I'm going to feel really dumb.</p>

<p>1) The curve was harder because the questions were easier (especially for writing). When students on average miss fewer questions, each miss causes a bigger reduction in one’s selection index.</p>

<p>2) Selection Index Scores were down 2-3 points this year compared to last, meaning there will be downward pressure on the state cutoffs. A 219 is the equivalent of a 221 last year. My guess is you have a 50-50 chance of National Merit with a 219 this year in CA. But GREAT score nonetheless.</p>

<p>I think it will go down at least 2 points because last years PSAT class (this year’s graduating class) was one of the best in years.</p>