<p>Practically no-one in my graduating CEGEP class contemplated going outside the province for college. For non-professional, graduate school (law school, med school and the like are available as undergraduate programs instead, with only B-school being graduate-level), on the other hand, we ship kids off-province contingent on subject availability.</p>
<p>I, too, am very curious about what the tuition letter will look like for my S3. It’s an in state LAC…a very decent college one of the best in our state and have increased their size from under 2,000 a decade ago to over 3500. It’s fairly selective and so many people are championing it to my son but I suspect that the better value prop is elsewhere. Fortunately my son is playing everything close to his chest, he’s specific about a major and he’s willing to wait until April to make a final decision (and cares about the total cost.) </p>
<p>But I can think of other LACs that could potentially be in a world of hurt as the population of college bound students contract and as wise parents make value decisions and decisions that include the smaller privates and decent to good publics for a student’s major.</p>
<p>I know that “reason” suggests that a change like we’re discussing may take a generation +, but “change” today happens so much faster than it used to. Yesterday’s top and irreplaceable retailer becomes today’s Best Buy or JC Penny, struggling for an identity; market and customers. Yesterday’s best computer company becomes today’s HP.</p>
<p>The internet is amazingly disruptive. Mix in a little declining demand and kids can shift like the wind, in droves to IS and lesser costly options. Compound that with the realization that Grad school is where the real degree cred and separation comes from? which will serve to further undermine the spendy undergrad school - and this years USN&WR landscape may be unrecognizable in 10 years.</p>
<p>I think that this is why many of the financially “at risk” schools are trying to expand international enrollment.</p>
<p>Sent from my DROID2 GLOBAL using CC</p>
<p>I agree giterdone. I think USNWR is a very fragile thing from which people make long lasting and expensive decisions. It’s far more than a college’s ranking. I have friends with degrees from colleges that no longer exist. It’s one thing to have a degree from a college that doesn’t exist that you spent $12,000 or less on and quite another to have a degree from a college that doesn’t exist that you spent $85,000 or tons more on.</p>
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<p>They may be currently benefiting from the state budget cuts causing reduced capacity at public universities and community colleges and the long term lesser growth of public university and community college capacity relative to population. So the students squeezed out of the public universities and community colleges may be their market.</p>
<p>Whether that is sustainable in the future is another story, since students and parents more conscious of cost than they used to be may balk at ever rising costs of attendance. Net price calculators move some of the pricing power from the colleges to the students and parents who can now create application lists with net price in mind instead of using the “apply and pray” method. On-line course delivery can also be a factor.</p>
<p>Here’s the kind of stuff that worked in the past. Hendrix college is a good example. The article is from 2010.</p>
<p>[Hendrix’s</a> Odyssey | Inside Higher Ed](<a href=“http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2010/08/05/hendrix]Hendrix’s”>http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2010/08/05/hendrix)</p>
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<p>And</p>
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<p>The last sentence is interesting. </p>
<p>But would this model work in 2012?</p>
<p>^ I don’t think so. From the article from Forbes for 2012;</p>
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<p>This trend is accelerating from 2010.</p>
<p>Out of a graduating class in the four figures (:)) our local HS, top in the state, sends only 10 kids or so to top 20 schools (Ivies, top 20, service academies). Only about 10% go OOS. We used to send double the number to top and OOS, at least double, but since 2008 things changed considerably.</p>
<p>A lot more kids also opt for community college, and the majority of OOS’s head to states with family ties, legacy, or low OOS cost, or sport scholarships. No faraway LAC’s for us. About 70% of the IS kids end up in the state flagship, and 20% in the state directionals, and 10% in the state privates. </p>
<p>Things could be interesting as our state flagship (Big 10) is getting a bit ahead of itself charging considerably more for OOS than IS, and encourages OOS international full-pay’s…</p>
<p>I agree that this trend will accelerate over the next five years or so. What will happen first is that some of the boutique privates, not top-tier but maybe the strata below that still have been charging $45,000+/year out-the-door, will lose enrollment because the top-tier wannabes that can’t afford those top 20 LAC’s will opt for state flagships at less money in lieu of these second-tiers. It’s already happening.</p>
<p>I also think, depending on a given state’s financial well being, the public flagships themselves could encounter problems as well. Some of them ain’t the great bargain they used to be because tuition has been raised sharply to offset state budget cuts, UIUC as an example. Believe me, University of Illinois probably won’t be in trouble for a few years, but I know for a fact that in-state HS seniors that have already been admitted for next fall have less expensive options at other state flagships (Mizzou), and are seriously considering them despite UIUC’s Top 50 status. That would’ve been unheard of even 5 years ago.</p>
<p>The community colleges are already benefitting from this–bully for them. Maybe the new normal will be a 2-year ‘bridge’ period of a CC with some distance/online learning coupled with work, and then a transfer with credits to finish up at a university. I predict within 5 years there will be absolutely no stigma to employers for this type of situation.</p>
<p>‘Value’ learning… :)</p>
<p>^^^^What are you considering the strata below top tier? Schools like Occidental, Hendrix, Centre, Whitman, Wooster for example, are outside of the top 30 (and some of these outside of the top 50) but I don’t think are going anywhere. And then there’s schools like Ohio Wesleyan, Lake Forest and Luther which are outside of the top 100 that I also don’t see closing soon.</p>
<p>Some schools outside of the top 50 have enrolled their largest class ever this past fall, so enrollment isn’t necessarily declining.</p>
<p>As tuition at public flagships keeps increasing, and these schools continue discounting (making them competitive with state schools) and then enrolling more students, they may see a rise in net tuition.</p>
<p>It has more to do with financial stability of the individual college than where that particular college is “ranked.” Interestingly most parents, and I can include myself in that, often don’t look at the financial viability of a college.</p>
<p>To the best of my knowledge there has never been a “stigma” about the CC to 4 year transition. The degree one receives is from the college that was terminal is what counts and what goes on the resume. Only here on this particular forum is there often “disdain” for CC>4 year or the idea that those students are “lesser”. The thought that employers “look down” at kids that went to a CC (if they even know that, which they probably wouldn’t since the resume will include where the BA/BS etc. was achieved) is a quirky notion.</p>
<p>skrlvr–could be one or more of those LAC’s you mentioned. Maybe not now, but depending on how much those schools’ Boards of Regent like their endowments to get frittered away over the next few years…sure, they could be in the crosshairs for declining enrollment.</p>
<p>The continuing trend of tuition increases is unsustainable for a good many colleges. Some will continue to get away with it for a few years. In the future, stagnant tuition may be a thing of the past as well, especially if inflation stays low.</p>
<p>Having gone through the undergraduate process with two D’s (nearly finished, thank goodness), I have been increasingly disturbed by educators & administrators alike thinking they are in an impenetrable bubble of sorts, intimating that they cannot be touched by a downspiraling economy. So far, easy loan money has allowed this to perpetuate. We will see.</p>
<p>^^Agreed! I’m quietly encouraging my DS '15 to consider that option.</p>
<p>@skrlvr - I don’t think schools such as OW, Lake Forest or Luther will close, but they and others in their peer group will have to be more (much more) competitive; if discounting is their practice to drive enrollment? that will tax facilities and drive up student/staff ratios, making them less appealing, requiring further discounts to hit enrollment targets and the viscous cycle starts all over (aka death spiral). And when they become indistinguishable from their public counter parts? what will be their competitive advantage?</p>
<p>And as has been observed up thread; endowments are going to be a key for long term survive-ability.</p>
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<p>The stigma of starting at CC seems to exist mainly in medical school admissions (with respect to taking pre-med courses at CC) and on this forum (which seems to be focused on elite colleges and is heavily populated by the “middle class who won’t get financial aid” (i.e. top 5% household income)).</p>
<p>In fairness, starting at CC may not be appropriate for an extremely advanced student who is likely to want to take upper division courses as a freshman or sophomore, or for specific majors whose prerequisites are not readily available at the local CCs. But that does not describe the majority of college-bound students. Indeed, some students may do better starting at CC, such as the extremely undecided ones who can spend extra semesters exploring and sampling at CC at low cost, rather than being put on a clock to declare a major by starting at a more expensive four year school.</p>
<p>turbo93–sends kids to top schools or kids are admitted to top schools? We have a high number of kids get admitted to top schools but not as high of a yield rate because the dollars work out better–one example, #1 kid in the class last year got into Yale, Harvard and Dartmouth but went to the flagship on a full ride, private scholarship.</p>
<p>The schools which are trying to increse enrollment that I know of are trying to get to around 1500–they aren’t trying to become big state schools.</p>
<p>There have always been kids who turn down HYP etc. for full rides at other schools. HYP etc still have excellent yield rates. </p>
<p>From the NYTimes</p>
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<p>So it’s a mixture of expecting lower numbers of graduate students as well, and it’s not evenly distributed across the country. Now small, lower-rated universities are expecting more pronounced declines (but is that the same thing as a liberal arts college or does it mean some low ranked universities with something like 5K students?).</p>
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<p>Most of these schools are not new.</p>
<pre><code>Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University (Tallahassee)-1887
Florida Atlantic University (Boca Raton)-1964
Florida Gulf Coast University (Ft. Myers)-1997
Florida International University (Miami)-1965
Florida Polytechnic University (Lakeland)-1988 (as branch of USF)
New College of Florida (Sarasota)-1960
University of Central Florida (Orlando)-1963
University of North Florida (Jacksonville)-1969
University of South Florida (Tampa)-1956
University of West Florida (Pensacola)-1963
</code></pre>
<p>As you can see the vast majority of growth in FL colleges happened 45-50 years ago not in the past 20 years.</p>
<p>< 50 years old is “brand new” in the college arena. Your land grant state schools, top private Universities and LAC’s average 100 years old ++</p>
<p>Agree, 50 years is relatively “new” but again fiscal strength is not necessarily always related to heritage.</p>