Is UChicago EA or RD not worth it anymore?

Here is a link to the Ivy League admissions rates.

https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■/2018-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/

RD rates were as follows:

Harvard 3.5%
Yale 4.6%
Princeton 5.4%
Columbia 5.5%
Penn 7.3%
Brown 7.4%
Dartmouth 9.9%
Cornell 12.3%

If UChicago’s RD rate were 2 to 2.5 percent, the chances of getting into UChicago in the RD round are markedly lower than any Ivy other than Harvard.

I bet they will not want to do a 2%-3% RD rate ever again though. It just makes bad strategic sense. This last year was a mistake, and they should see to it that it should not happen again.

(assuming they are rational)

If they are so ashamed of the 2% RD rate then 1) why mention it at all and 2) why round DOWN from what must be higher than 2% (given that 2% itself returns a pool that is simply too big)? Why not say it was 3% like Harvard’s (as long as they are having fun with rounding)? Sure - maybe they upped the number of ED admits because they panicked at the lower application totals - but then why indicate to parents that a majority of ED admits will happen going forward? Not much “learning from mistakes” going on. Perhaps they have a different opinion.

What Would Thaler Do?

@Zinhead , I think you intended to link to the 2021 Ivy admission stats.

https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■/2021-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/

@Zinhead thank you! This is very helpful.

@bogeyorpar - Thank you for the correction. The most recent Ivy RD rates are as follows:

Harvard 3.4%
Princeton 4.3%
Columbia 4.6%
Yale 5.0%
Penn 6.8%
Brown 6.9%
Dartmouth 8.5%
Cornell 10.8%

Qualified applicants still have a much higher chance of getting into any of these schools in the RD round than UChicago.

Remember that “RD” is a managed pool, simply in terms of how many are deferred from the early pools. Especially if not a lot of new RD apps come in the door. If a school really wanted to, they could reject NO ONE till the RD round, thus deferring everyone who wasn’t accepted. There were some amazing applications deferred from UChicago’s EA last year, and one or two that were head-scratchers. Anyway, the working hypothesis might be that unless the uni. releases early acceptance, deferral and reject numbers (publicizing will always serve as a bit of a regulator), then the school might be aggressively deferring to push down the RD rate. UChicago might well have done that. Also, UChicago’s early pool seems to increase every year which contributes to the issue. And, of course, UChicago admitted half of their early class EDI/EA so they have signalled that they really like the early pool.

Gosh I’m an EA applicant at UChicago and all this talk about the rock bottom RD admit rates about here and the ivies is really stressing me out…