It's a Lottery

Prep School Admissions
1

The Middle School Head at my daughter’s K-8 independent day school has an interesting take on the BS application process. First, she asks that both applicants and parents see it as a lottery. You get one ticket and you stand a very good chance of losing because there are tons of other folks with the exact same ticket as you. (Ticket = Straight As/90+% SSAT/strong ECs). You wouldn’t feel like a failure because you didn’t win Powerball, so why feel like you failed because you didn’t get into a BS that only accepts 7-10% of applicants, almost of whom have the exact same ticket as you?

And, second, the Head quite rightly observes that a few people get extra tickets to the lottery, a fact which none of us can do anything about. Extra tickets are for geographic diversity, socioeconomic diversity, and the nebulous “political admit” which essentially has to do with the parents’ perceived wealth and connections. (I would also add the caveat that the need for FA skews the system for those ticket holders because they have to clear an additional hurdle. Indeed, maybe they have to “win” two lotteries.) And, of course, since we all have a sense of statistics, we realize that the more participants in a lottery the lesser our chances of winning (i.e. those applying to HADES schools) and that by participating in multiple lotteries (i.e. applying to multiple schools) we increase our chances of winning

I have explained to my daughter how proud I am that she got a ticket to the lottery to begin with. She’s one of “those kids” with Straight As/90+% SSAT/excellent and diverse ECs/exemplary teacher recommendations/great interview skills/no FA necessary, but she still has only one ticket. Maybe she’ll win, maybe she won’t, but at this point it has absolutely nothing to do with her. Understanding this has caused her to be very calm about the process.

I hope you will all pat yourselves on the back for getting this far and remind yourself that no one “fails” lotteries. They simply don’t get their ticket pulled, and it has nothing to do with their inner worth.

2

Great way to look at it, Kthor! thanks. Unfortunately, our back up plan IS a lottery; computer generated and we wont find out about that for another week or two. The odds are better with the local lottery though!

Good luck to your daughter. Sounds as though her ticket may be a little more golden than some!

3

@Kthor626…very well said

4

I don’t really buy that its a lottery ticket. It is a lottery ticket if you apply to only one school. But for a kid with parents and a middle school supporting them who applies to an appropriate number and range of schools you will be able to go to BS, every kid can win that lottery. A lottery ticket implies that 1 kid has a happy ending for every 999 who do not, especially considering that in your example the “lottery ticket” is only for those with A’s 90’s on the SSATs and strong ECs, The odds are not 90% against you at ANY school including Exeter and Andover with the resume that you have described. Its certainly not a guarantee that you will get into Andover Exeter etc but there are lots of other schools even “top schools” who would be happy to have that kid.

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I agree that it’s a lottery, but not that everyone with that profile has an equal chance.

6

If it’s a lottery, it’s definitely the riskiest and scariest lottery I will probably ever play in my life. (Other than college decisions :P)

7

There actually was a stimulating article in the Atlantic which proposes a lottery system for college admissions. Read here

http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/05/the-case-for-a-college-admissions-lottery/361585/

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Lottery ?? Did you know that the international students are groomed from birth to come to our schools and sit in our seats?? These school are not about kids with As They want intellectual curiosity-that is different then a kid who can get As. They want real talent in sports> kids headed for professional sports, Olympic hopefuls !!! You get the picture. Just to rub salt in the wound…FA is a real drag on there system!!

Lottery ??? No these schools know what they want and they let in the most qualified FAIMLY!!! Period!!!

9

@solargem, I think Kthor was just trying to relieve some of the pre M10 anxiety that most people on these forums are experiencing. Although you have a point, and it is true that schools are looking for “intellectual curiosity”, let’s also keep in mind that there are thousands, or at least hundreds of kids who are qualified, valid candidates for admission to any of the top schools that you describe with such high standards. It’s a crapshoot, because some of these candidates may be virtually the same, but one might have gotten in where the other one did not.

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It’s not a crapshoot and it’s not a lottery. These schools no longer have to take a chance on any child in USA because they know they can get a hyper intellectual just by going over seas. I have spent some time on this board and can’t help but feel like these kids roll out of bed one day and say gee I think I will go to boarding school. Then they are confused and dismayed as to why they don’t get in. The boarding school application starts in 6th grade. A valid candidate for admission is virtually NEVER the same. IT IS NOT ABOUT THE one IT ABOUT THE FAIMLY.

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KTHOR626 - my independent k-8 private school foams at the mouth and is brimming with joy about where there kids are matriculating to. What have you been paying for ???

12

I’m sorry, @solargem, but I think that I need to step in her and let you know that your response is not very helpful to the CC community. You are propagating a myth that does not help those students and parents who are interested in learning more about prep school admissions. I have several comments that refute your claims in support of the OP.

  1. “The family” as a criteria for admissions is optional at best - aside from the ability to pay for the school and legacy status, family credentials are meaningless. The parent essays are optional and in some schools were not even offered. Of course, if there is a development case where millions of dollars are being considered for a school that has a very small endowment, then this would be considered as a substantial “hook.” Schools are interested in knowing about family support for the student and nothing more IMHO.

  2. The “lottery” comment is accurate when considering that many acceptances are based purely on luck and unpredictable factors completely out of the control of the applicant (after a considerable amount of evaluation). To get the applicant pool to a manageable number that could actually be discussed in a series of meeting - let’s say 700 from >2000, a variety of factors are examined and there is a culling if you will. This is where scores, grades, and a cursory review of credentials takes place. One could argue that this seemingly scientific approach also incorporates luck (interviewer’s mood, perhaps a topic of interest in the essay for some AOs, et c.), but for the sake of argument, let’s say that this aspect is indeed truly related to finding qualified or desired applicants. This still leaves many many more qualified applicants than spaces offered. How are applicants who are “more equal/qualified than others” chosen – luck. This is when the forces beyond a student’s control factor into the decisions. Some examples: a) The band director or head of the music department informs the admissions committee that all of the trombonists are graduating and there is a real risk of not having any students play this important instrument. On the other hand, we have way too many students playing tuba. He asks that favorable consideration be given to those trombonists and maybe hold off on the tuba playing students for this year. b) The admissions decisions are made but, unfortunately, the committee still needs to take out 50 accepted students. When analyzing the accepted students it is revealed that there is an unusually high representation of students from the East Coast and very few mid-westerners for some reason - the director goes back and starts comparing the East Coasters to see who should go back to the wait-list.

  3. The grooming of olympic hopefuls that may be occurring overseas is clearly not working. There are many of these candidates that receive unexpected results on M10. This speaks to the unpredictable nature of the admissions process.

  4. Admissions committees routinely admit students who are unable to handle the work, can’t handle being away from home, demonstrate exceptional promise but end up at the bottom of the class - if there were truly a prescriptive evaluation of student success, then these students would not exist. How is it possible that these students who are struggling accepted, while others who could take their place and succeed not? Luck, that’s how.

Our kids should know that an acceptance or rejection from a particular school does not define their achievements and is not a true reflection on their intelligence, work ethic, or promise for success in life. There is a lot of luck involved with the decisions being made.

13

@heartburner a well thought out reply. Thank you. Me thinks from reading @solargem’s comments a couple of different things: she herself was not born and raised in the US and is perhaps as a result a bit sensitive about the brash entitlement of some of the US kids she has seen. Something about this lottery idea struck a nerve with her, @solargem the OP offered this up as her own personal experience. There are ways of disagreeing politely with someone, you might note that in my previous post I in fact disagreed with her but it is not necessary or very polite to be so aggressively dismissive especially when there are many people waiting on pins and needles. And, for the record, CC may not be a very reliable pool but there have been many, many posters here who are international students who have only heard of Andover and Exeter and a small number of other schools many of whom have TOEFL scores which are below cutoffs asking if “it will hurt them that they have an SSAT of 50%” The hubris or naiveté of 13-14 year olds is not something that is limited to US 13 year olds. Lastly, although you may have started the BS application process for your child in 6th grade there are so many more people who do not, and you know what? That works out just fine too.

14

I think of it as a little more like a raffle. If you have a ton of tickets (high SAT scores, excellent grades strong extracurriculars) your chances are much better than average. Conversely, if you choose to use your tickets on a less popular raffle item your chances of winning are better than they would have been if you had used them only on the most popular items.

The analogy isn’t perfect, but a variation on the lottery theme.

In 2 rounds of prep school applications I’ve been able to accurately predict my kids’ results. That’s for 9 different schools. I know how many tickets my kids have and at which schools those tickets are likely to pay off.

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LLNYer must be an analyst for the CIA given the higher level of detail for understanding solargem. I did not mean to be too critical of solargem, but wanted to clarify that there is a certain amount of luck involved and this emphasis on family is a little much. In fact, I think that an orphan with good grades/scores and some well written essays describing the experience of not having a family is probably in a better position than most.

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@Sue22…I would LOVE to know how you predicted your DC’s results. I was so off base last application cycle, even though DD was more than qualified for all the schools she applied to…hoping we win the lottery/raffle this time :slight_smile:

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@dreamcatcher3, I’m sure some of it was luck, but a great deal of it was knowing the schools well and not applying to all acronym prep schools. I think it does become more of a lottery when you’re applying to schools with extremely low acceptance rates.

To come clean, some of the knowledge comes from having gone to a prep school and living in a place where tons of kids attend them. You tend to know who ends up at which school and what they had to offer. For instance your kids know who gets A’s in the classes they’re in and who plays on elite sports teams. Combine that with parental knowledge as to who is in a special category such as the legacy or development pile, look where those kids ended up, and it becomes easier to read the tea leaves.

On the official side, although private K-8’s and consultants don’t like to make predictions they do have a lot of information about who schools admit. At their private school placement meetings my kids’ school will show parents a scattergram from the schools the family is interested in pursuing, in some cases to discourage families from aiming for schools where their child has little chance of admissions success. It’s a lot like Naviance. You can put your kid on the plot (SATs and grades) and adjust for talent and special circumstances, and get a fairly good idea of which schools are a good bet. With my first child the Head of School went over our list with us offering advice, for instance noting which school was particularly score sensitive, which was trying to up its academic profile, which was eager for more kids from this particular school.

Taking a tiny bit of credit, we did a lot of work to learn about the school cultures, both so that we could encourage our kids to apply to schools for which they were honestly a good fit and so that that understanding would be reflected in the interviews and in our and our kids’ application essays. I knew coming out of one of the interviews that my child would probably receive a no because of a small misstep on our part that revealed that the school probably wasn’t the best fit for our child. It was low on this child’s list anyway, so when the thin waitlist envelope arrived no one was upset. Again, being in a prep school intensive environment helps because there are a lot of parents to ask questions of. I also used what I called the word cloud trick. Take a look at a school’s promotional materials to see how they present themselves. What words do they use to describe their program? Innovative or traditional? Rigorous or challenging? Whole child, AP, creative, success? Reflect those aspects of the program that appeal to you back to schools. Show them why you love them and you’ll be more likely to find success.

Early on I actually created a couple of word clouds for fun to show my husband how different two schools were even though they were very similarly ranked and regarded and our child was being encouraged to apply to both.

Since I think with results coming in less than 36 hours it’s too late in the process to accidentally tank child #3’s chances by posting here I’ll go out on a limb and make predictions. Please note, although these are all wonderful schools not one is a HADES. We’re big believers in hidden gems.

95% backup school. Might not attend if admitted but it’s nice to have options.
90% first choice school. They love her school and know they’re her first choice. Her stats are a bit below par but she blew them away in the interview and her current school will fight for her.
80% legacy school, her second choice. They like us, we like them, and who knows, it may be #1 after revisits.
50% unusual circumstances school. This one I’m split on. It could go either way. She has a bit of a hook here but admissions might not think it’s the right academic fit.
30% reach school. Popular place but not one of her top choices. I predict a rejection.

So I predict 3-4 acceptances, with 1-2 rejections. You won’t meet child #3 at the PA revisit day but I know she’ll end up somewhere wonderful. Maybe this year will be the one where my crystal ball malfunctions but hopefully not.

18

@Sue22, I love the “word cloud” imagery. I am so far away from your world that it truly is tea leaves. But when we are evaluating any options that may occur in a couple of days, that will be a good way to approach it. To be fair, during the process, the culture, or personality, of each school did emerge. However, doing a word cloud will really crystallize and sharpen that definition.

I think I will try that for college selection, as well. Thank you!

19

@Sue22…thank you for the amazing response. Very enlightening to a newbie who lives in Colorado and is so far removed from the intricacies involved. If all goes well with D1 and we end up sending S1 to BS, you may be getting a PM from me. I really appreciate the time you spent educating me.

20

A lottery or craps game suggests random selection, even with if the player has multiple lottery tickets.

Boarding school admissions is neither a lottery nor a crapshoot; it’s a poker game where some people are dealt a better hand than others. While there’s certainly luck involved, poker requires a certain degree of skill.

In poker, u can still win with an unexceptional hand if u play your cards right and are a good bluffer. There’s strategic skill in interviewing, writing the essays, and framing your ECs & background just right to “spin” to the admissions committee what u would add to the school community. As in poker, it helps to join games where the competing players are not all better bluffers than u (i.e. cast a wide net).