Hey guys,
Lots of good discussion going on here. Looks like it’s getting off topic, and I’m gonna keep pushing it that way because I feel I should let out the information I have from going through this process 3 years ago. But first, I would say to OP that you shouldn’t overlook the culture-fit of a school as an important aspect for you, maybe more-so than athletics or prestige.
OhioDad, I looked up that section of the Summary of Ivy Rules for… etc. I found no mention of likely letters in the entire document (though I basically just control-F’d).
Personally, as of my experience a few years ago, all of what you said about the AI (Academic Index) is basically correct. And most else of what you said is correct if you replace “likely letter” with “coach’s support in admissions”. Ivy league coaches have a certain number of not-quite-spots-but-tips in admissions. For my sport, it was 18 tips every 4 years. These, like it has been said, are not guaranteed, but as long as you put the effort into your application and are in a semi-competitive range for the school (which it sounds like you are) they might as well be. These are the only way a coach can officially support an application - but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t had a conversation with admissions along the lines of “hey, if this top-notch student that’s also a legacy applied, I’d love it if he/she got in cause I would like him/her on my team”. To which admissions might reply, “seems like a good student - as long as they have good recs and essays, they’ll be in”. I’m pretty sure but not as sure that coaches give a list of all players to admission, including the ones they’re not officially supporting.
Separately, likely letters are distributed by a number of schools, including ivies, to applicants that are very likely to get in, usually like halfway through the process. They are not limited to athletes, and can be sent to any applicants.
As for NESCAC (where I ended up), each coach has a number of tips per year in each of A-band, B-band, and C-band. He has the most A, less B, and less C, but C provides more support than B which provides more support than A.
I actually applied to MIT EA with the coaches support and did not get in. Most coaches don’t have much pull, and while their support will help its still a good probability you don’t get in. I ended up being recruited by the NESCAC I attend after getting deferred EA from MIT, and verbally committed to them with support from the coaches and an RD application.
I would say, go with the choice that will make you happier, especially if there are a lot of other schools you like in addition to MIT. If not for that NESCAC working out, I would have been applying purely on academics a bunch of places and just trying to walk on. Walk ons are actually very common on the Ivy/NESCAC/MIT/UAA level because of the stringent admissions standards. But like I said earlier, go with the school that will grow you best as a person, and don’t reject a school because, as I thought a number of times “I don’t want to go to my parent’s school” or “I don’t want to use this advantage” etc.