Likelihood of getting in RD after being deferred EA?

This is kind of a chance and discussion post so please bear with me. First, i applied to Harvard Ea and was deferred- these are my stats. What are my chances of getting in RD? Harvard was my top choice but now im having serious doubts.
*] SAT I (breakdown): 2140
[ *] ACT: none
[ *] SAT II:780 Math 2 760 Chem
[ *] Unweighted GPA (out of 4.0): 4.0
[ *] Rank (percentile if rank is unavailable): top 2.4 percent of class
[ *] AP (place score in parenthesis): Us History 5
[ *] IB (place score in parenthesis):
[ ] Senior Year Course Load: Ap Chem. Ap statistics, Ap calculus AB, AP Physics 1, English 4-1, Microeconomics
[ ] Major Awards (USAMO, Intel etc.): National achievement scholarship semifinalist- soon to be finalist, National Spanish honor society,National society of High school scholars inductee
[ /list][ b]Subjective:

[ *] Extracurriculars (place leadership in parenthesis): 2 years of track( have asthma so made sure to state that), Red Cross club (co-chair), avid program (tutor), Young life club( founding member), National Spanish honor society, Robotics club (design team), greenhouse club ( take care of lizards, snakes, and turtles)
[ *] Job/Work Experience:none
[ *] Volunteer/Community service: Student council volunteer( soup kitchens etc)
[ *] Summer Activities:
[ *] Essays: 9-10/10 - Wrote about the process of writing, how it makes me feel,and described the impact of writing my first short story/book. Did not write supplement for EA.
[ *] Teacher Recommendation: 10/10
[ *] Counselor Rec:10/10
[ ] Additional Rec:
[ ] Interview:yes
[ /list][ b]Other

[ *] State (if domestic applicant): NJ
[ *] Country (if international applicant):
[ *] School Type:Public
[ *] Ethnicity: Black
[ *] Gender: M
[ ]Income Bracket: 120-150K
[ ] Hooks (URM, first generation college, etc.): URM, National achievement semifinalist (only 1600 in country)
[ b]Reflection

[ *] Strengths: GPA, Essay, good Extracurricular, I’m applying for engineering so my love for writing shows more dimensions of my personality, minority in Engineering
[ *] Weaknesses: SAT score and could use more ECs

Additions for RD round: Since I never wrote the optional supplement i felt that admissions needed a better picture of who I am. I sent annother essay describing how my name (Eseiwi) means a “gift that is never lost” in my Nigerian Edo language and described the impact of having such an unorthodox name and how Ive drawn a sense of self and cultural identity from it. Also, I became a national achievement finalist a month ago and sent a picture of the certificate. Also, had my first ever perfect transcripr fot mid year report. Straight Apluses in every single class (all AP).

REAL discussion- Once deferred what are the chances of getting in. What are my chances? And bywhat maerit did they choose deferred candidates? Was it like anyone who wasn’t DEFINITELY getting rejected or did they differ kids who actually had potential?

Because tons of kids got deferred so were they like not selective with deferrals?

Not very likely. Sorry.

With an 80% overall yield, Harvard has to accept about 2100 applicants to achieve their goal of 1660 matriculated students – which is the approximate number of freshman beds the university has in all it’s dorms.

Harvard admitted 977 students SCEA, so they only need to admit 1123 students in the RD round to make their number.

As 4,292 students were deferred —almost 4 times the number they actually need to admit RD – and there are also 25,000 more applications in the RD round, who knows what your chances are like in the RD round. It’s really anyone’s guess. You’ll just have to wait it out another month to find out. Best of luck to you!

In my calculation above, I completely forget student’s that were Z-listed last year. There are probably about 35 to 50 Z-listers, so Harvard really only needs about 1050 students in RD to meet their numbers.

What exactly is the z-list? . I Have heard the term before but never with an explanation Of its meaning.

z listers are people who are marginally qualified but whose parents are rich, well known etc. They are given another year to mature and sometimes find something else to do besides harvard. They are admitted after a one year deferral

Do the math. Very small likelihood. EA was the best chance statistically.

you have like… a 2% chance.
maybe less than that.
I wouldn’t worry about it anymore.
If you get in, just let that be a pleasant surprise.
Good luck to you!

Given that some RD admits will be URM’s, legacy’s, developmental cases, and international students, the admit rate will probably be closer to 2% than 3% for an unhooked US applicant. As a deferred applicant, your chances may be slightly higher, but it’s terribly difficult to predict.

To the OP: the National Achievement Academy award will not make any difference. It is a sketchy, for-profit organization that emphasizes the sale of over-priced plaques and certificates to fund very few “scholarships”.

no its not natachivement academy its national achievment scholarship look it up. its part of National Merit organization

Yeah, fauve I’m not sure what you’re talking about, the national achievement test is for African Americans who do well on the PSAT.

Well, I think it’s a little too late now that you already submitted your application. Based on some personal observations, Harvard defers a lot of people unlike Stanford who defers only the people who are really close and rejects the rest. But hey, anything can happen because you (and everyone else who applies) all have an extremely small chance of getting in.

Just embrace the wait until decisions come out.
Good Luck!