@htimy2015
Your son is a tricky situation because his standized scores don’t line up with GPA all that well and that is relatively uncommon. That said, take published GPA numbers with a grain of salt. There is little consistency on whether the #s being published are UW or Weighted. Naviance will be most accurate.
I won’t give too much feedback on the specific schools in your list - most are high reaches/reaches for anyone anyway, but you son’s SAT and subject are high enough that if he doesn’t mind doing the work to write the application and you don’t mind dropping 100 bucks a pop, he could get into some of the top schools.
I’d more suggest doing a deep dive on what kind of school he wants to go to. Cal Tech is tiny, quiet, has no real sports vibe, is dominated by guys with 800 math SAT and SATII scores. Cal-Berkeley is huge, bustling, big-sports can be a ton of fun or isolating, depending, and can require a real self-starter mentality to thrive. (And chance of admission to Cal or UCLA varies greatly by school and/or major. Many science majors are impacted and very hard for OOS students)
I’d imagine you’ve visitied Lehigh and Lafayette. They are very different in vibe from either CIT or UCB/Cal and from UPenn, BU, and other urbans.
Everyone is different, but I found it most helpful with my kid and some friends we advised to 1st get a good list of the “kind” of school he wants: identify what is important: Size? Location? Strong STEM? Gender balance? Cost (do run the numbers and really add them up, you might be surprised. 200k -300k is a lot of dough), LAC or big U, Arts+science or engin or bus school etc.
VA has such good in-state options, I’d explore those 1st, then I’d next explore schools that reward high SAT with merit money. USC has been known to give decent merit aid to high-stat students. Don’t know how much GPA will deter them. Need to apply to USC by Dec. 1st and show very strong interest. Tulane supposedly as well. Unless you have financial need you won’t get money from ivies etc. and all competitive schools will be a crap-shoot with lower GPA student.
Good news is, he might need to apply to more schools than most, but he’ll find someplace interesting with those stats. Dunno how his HS guidance team is, but he is the kind of kid, if they can contextualize his grades and vouch for him strongly, they might make the difference at some schools.