Ding ding. This was us. After doing what I thought was the right research, we targeted schools that had reputations for “good merit” (whatever that means) and where our son would be (in terms of stats) in the top quarter to 10%. What we learned, the hard way, is that a lot of our efforts were wasted spent trying to get merit aid at schools that didn’t bring our total cost to even our EFC. It was an eye opener and our general strategy was flawed. Strong students with high stats and decent (but not overwhelming) activities but no other hook are not as in demand as we may have thought. The “if they really want you” myth was just that and we didn’t see one offer at a private school where total cost came in less than our EFC. The good news is that one of our contingencies worked out better than we hoped and our son has a spot at an out of state flagship that he is really excited about.
MODERATOR’S NOTE: I believe this thread has run its course, so I am closing it. Users can feel free to start new threads if they have questions they would like answered.