<p>"But, what about the kid who thinks that 20 apps significantly improve his odds over 8 or 10?"</p>
<p>Believe it or not, and as strange as it may seem, the answer (for a "qualified Ivy applicant") is an unequivocal "yes", it does improve his odds. Don't jump on me, but the Ivy-wide acceptance rate is between 40-50%, roughly the same as one of the better state universities. It is 8%-10% at each school, but the 23,000+ acceptances come from probably no more than 50,000-60,000 discrete applicants. As more applicants are rejected ED, the number of total applications goes up, without any increase in the number of applicants. The result is that the chances of getting into any particular Ivy school goes down, but the chances of getting into one of the schools remains exactly the same.</p>
<p>BUT (big but), more than 50% of students accepted at Ivy schools require no financial aid. There is a huge competition among the Ivies for students who can pay full-fare. The chances of non-full-fare customers getting in are much, much lower (which is why they won't publish them - it would be like killing the goose that lays the golden egg.)</p>