Poor appreciation of acceptance chances.

So I’ve been reading a lot of stories about kids who applied to 15-20 of the top 20 (which is fine if you do it with your eyes open), but they then are shocked when they’re accepted by only 1-2 of those schools. It seems that they truly expected to get in to half or more of them even though those schools only take in about 10% of applicants and most applicants to those schools have great stats, ECs, etc.

How does that happen? I imagine that any GC worth their salt know the true odds for a candidate. Is it simply a case of kids not listening to adults and thinking that they really are very special (more special than all the other super stats/EC kids)? Does this happen every year?

Yes, it happens every year but I think that many kids apply to way more schools than was typical in the past (therefore, mistakenly thinking that their odds of admissions will go up with more applications).

And of course- not working hard to find a safety school you love thinking that there is zero probability you will have to go there…

It does happen every year. I think it results from a variety of reasons including: GC’s who are overworked, understaffed, not trained properly, or (hopefully not!) just don’t care; Parents who have an overinflated image of their children; students who have worked really hard in HS and don’t understand that there are 1000’s of kids doing the same thing AND don’t listen to advice; and unfortunately kids who are doing this whole thing totally on their own, maybe are the first in their families to go to college, and just don’t understand. There is also the whole group that applies to a list of colleges without understanding the financial pictures, only to get acceptances and then realize they can’t afford any. It’s really sad because often it is hard-working students who have received poor advice and didn’t make a good list of colleges with appropriate safeties.

Learning Statistics and Probability has a life long impact.

Or should.

My son’s GC met with myself and my son’s during Junior year, asked which schools they were interested in attending and major, gave us some website information to check out and that was the extent of their involvement. I made a point to do my own research and helped them come up their college list. Both son’s wanted to stay in-state and didn’t have any unrealistic expectations, so very few of the top 20 colleges were not their radar. They both applied to 10 schools with a good mix of safety, match and reaches. Older son was accepted into 7/10 and younger son 6/10. They had a few disappointments, but overall a good number of schools to choose from in the end.

I do not know if this generation of kids feel that since they worked hard in HS, they are entitled to be accepted at the top schools or as @PurpleTitan stated, they are given advice and refuse to follow. I am glad admissions are over and my son’s are in schools where they are happy and doing well. @blossom also makes a great point in finding 1-2 safety schools where a student would be happy in attending. What’s the point in applying to a safety, if you have no plans to attend.

Seems to be a common comment from many posters in the fall that high school seniors should start their lists with a safety that the like. Then, in the spring, some of the high school seniors panic because they get in nowhere affordable (i.e. the “safety” was not a safety), or “only got into the safety” that they do not particularly like.

Some kids cannot find a safety that they would be happy to attend. They can only find one that they could tolerate if they absolutely had to. So if that’s the only school they get into, they’re disappointed.

“How does that happen? I imagine that any GC worth their salt know the true odds for a candidate. Is it simply a case of kids not listening to adults and thinking that they really are very special (more special than all the other super stats/EC kids)?”
The decisions where to apply are often being made primarily by 16 to 17 year old teenagers, who as we adults all know, do not generally have great judgement at this age. Unless they are applying ED they dont need the permission of parents or a GC before hitting the “send” button on applications.
The common app should be abolished, imho. There is an interesting conversation about this very matter today in the NYT’s
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/03/31/how-to-improve-the-college-admissions-process/do-college-admissions-by-lottery

I think you might be over estimating the amount of input students get from their gc. Son’s gc gave no input regarding school selection. She told son to look “online” for schools with his prospective minor. That was it. Meanwhile, the school hosts seminars on getting into selective colleges. This is a highly rated ps, top in state awards, etc.

Hey…they got accepted at one or two of those top twenty schools! They need to stop complaining. They can only attend one…not 10. Pick from the two acceptances…Tada!

Our GC held parent seminars to navigate them through match schools. I was the only one who showed up even though I had gone through the process just 3 years earlier. However, the game keeps changing and schools that were not so competitive before have upped their game. I got the benefit of having her all to myself. She liked the big fish in a small pond idea. D got into all schools except her reach. All gave her merit except two and one of those was an OOS, which we knew does not give much merit. I think the disappointment went away quite quickly and helped her focus on where she will be going. Next phase…

I agree, @thumper1, and if they had entered the process with the proper mindset, they would be happy instead of dejected, but it seems that a bunch of them really expected a ton of acceptances (or weren’t ready to deal with the rejections). Is it because they have a poor understanding of probability/statistics? Because they have never faced failure/rejection before in their life?

Some of these kids have not been rejected from anything. Top student without a single B in some cases, most difficult classes, at a tough school, and very high test scores. It’s hard to believe that as they are tops in such scenarios that there are enough of them out there that for the most selective schools, many of them cannot be accepted simply because theres aren’t the seats. And that the school also has other student types that are wanted to field the sports teams, keep employees content, bring in donor money, bring in diversity, have an array of talents, etc, etc.

In my area the kids who got turned down by Columbia were some spectacular students, some who will be getting into other top schools but are burning from that ED reject. But then, I know a large number who applied since it’s a local school and Columbia has no plans of having that many NYers going there. They could have filled their class with them without giving up much or any in test score stats. But they want other things that are not so easy to find in their applicant pool without giving up some numbers in the academic area. Sports, for instance–they are in the Ivy league because of the sports, you know, so they gotta get some beef into those baby blue uniforms for some football and other such sports, and Young Einstein doesn’t fit the the bill.

It’s easy to berate these kids, but the ones I know are really great kids, and they are upset. Not going to make light of it. I think they will be fine, in fact in great shape, May this be their biggest disappointment in a long life. And wonderful if it’s their biggest hurt to date, but yes, it hurts and there is resentment when you see others get accepted who haven’t done as well, put in the work, as many of my son’s classmates, and my son as wel is seeing.

I’m not sure if our public HS is typical but they stress to the students that they and their parents are responsible for college selection and applications. Their GC and the school’s career counselor both did a good job of learning about our kids’ interests and advising them when a school with a strong program would be coming in for a visit, but otherwise they don’t push schools. If they tried to encourage or discourage S or D from applying to any particular school, I’m not aware of it. My wife and I took this to heart and actively helped both of our kids research colleges. Both kids picked a good mix of reach, match and safety schools and had choices. That being said, I’m sure my expectations of the GC would be different if I had paid tens of thousands in private school tuition.

I think kids get it. Yes, there are always a few threads here where a kid didn’t apply to any safeties…but those are more of an urban legend than a regularity. And I also think most kids get the odds. But they also see this:

  1. a kid who applies to 3, 4, 6, 8 top universities and gets into one of them....yes, he/she should have guessed right and only applied to the one that was going to admit him...but...
  2. A kid who applies to multiple schools and receives widely varying results when it comes to merit/financial aid....again, he only should have applied to the school that was going to give him the scholarships but...
  3. mixed in with that is the magical thinking that all humans do....that is, the belief that even when the odds are low, someone has to get it and it might be you. Witness this among restaurant owners (80% of them fail), scientists who apply for grants (80% of them get turned away) and people who apply for jobs at Google and never make it past the first round.... it is what it is....i'd rather have an optimistic kid who brushes himself off from defeat and moves on than the reverse..

Some of this is also how much admissions have changed in the last few years. Looking at Naviance, which might include the previous 5 graduating classes, may show an admit with the same stats, but that was a while ago and the GPA/SAT admit numbers may have then crept upward. Also, people hear that some kid got a scholarship from X college and thinks their kid could as well, when the kid that got money actually got financial aid, not merit scholarship.

Also, kids (and parents) can’t quite comprehend that even a 20% admit rate means that 80% of kids are denied. And that 80% may include kids that have comparable stats to the 20% admitted. Kids also can be very picky - can only be this kind of school and don’t want to compromise on any aspects.

Kids and parents also lament that that their kid worked so hard in high school and wants only a college where his or her intellectual equals can be found - which (in their minds) is not at a State school or lower ranked school where kids with less impressive stats also got in. Of course, many very smart kids are also at those schools, many for financial reasons.

Many HS students and their parents receive no guidance from their HS as to reasonable college choices and chances for admission. We sure didn’t. I researched the heck out of the college admissions process years in advance, so not a problem for us, but I really wonder how most families at this HS manage. Our HS experience is much like what @MidwestSalmon describes, but a little worse. Despite that 90% of students in our large public HS go on to college, GC offers no guidance on where to apply. Only presentation for parents and students was on mechanics of how to use Naviance, request a transcript and teacher recommendations, and deadlines.When DS and I met with GC for the big meeting just before senior year, we actually received incorrect info as to the difference between “early action” and “early decision”–she had them reversed. GC was interested to hear where DS was planning to apply, but that was it. She was a seasoned GC, but this is apparently how it’s done (or not done) at his HS. I was a bit stunned. And this is a very highly rated school district. Parents and students are really on their own, and I’m afraid for many it’s a case of they don’t know what they don’t know. They end up learning the hard way about college admissions after the fact.

I keep reminding myself that these are 17 year olds who don’t have the 40 years of experience that I do, including multiple rejections from jobs, not to mention the 10 or so years I’ve been reading these stories on CC. I also tell myself that they can say things in an anonymous online forum that they can’t say to their friends and parents.

However, I do get irritated by the kids who bitterly complain about all the rejections from MIT and Stanford and UPenn ED, and mutter that now they have to chose between Wesleyan and Occidental. They’ve gotten into some darn good schools and don’t seem to appreciate that.

It is sad how some seem to have vested their entire self-worth and self-image on acceptance to multiple Ivies.

We were lucky to have a good guidance counselor who told my son, “You can apply to Stanford, but almost no one gets in.” It was harsh, but that’s exactly how it played out, and I’m glad we applied to a lot of less selective schools too. This whole process has been an eye-opener for both me and my son. Thank you so much to the folks on this board giving great advice, I don’t know how we could have managed without you all. :slight_smile:

As in #18, that is why kids apply to way too many colleges. Not every kid can get into the schools listed, but every kids thinks they can get into one of them - and they are correct often enough that the next group of kids applies to the same list.

By the way, I wish my kid had liked Union, but the trimester thing really turned him off.