Lottery metaphor exaggerates situation

<p>TheDad - yes, I agree, rolling admits may not fit everyone - my D had 2 rolling admit safeties, and one would have been OK, the other, a big state school, was purely to guard against catastrophic personal or financial problems. For the juniors out there, a few rolling admit LACs do exist, as well as a few that have a form of early or immediate action on an app, which does not exclude students from applying to other schools - maybe us LAC lovers should start a list of these.</p>

<p>Students in certain areas of the country, particularly the NE, are certainly hampered by this - there are fewer excellent public rolling admit schools, and when you eliminate the large number of students who want to stay close to home (naturally) or limit their geographic search, I know it becomes hard to find a rolling safety. Is it that way in Cal, too?
You don't need a rolling admit to use a guesstimation strategy to reach a reasonable number of apps, but it just takes the biggest part of the stress away earlier.</p>

<p>Mini, I actually agree with you, although I'd put the Ivy wide number down around 40-45%, and where does that 50% of ACCEPTED students are full fare come from? Matriculated maybe, but I doubt accepted is that high. I just think using 20 apps is better than 10 is a dangerous strategy for an individual student, even if it may have some statistical validity. I just truly feel that good, solid academic candidates without international level hooks, will do well with a list of 8-10 carefully chosen schools and well written applications/thoughtfully chosen recommenders. There must be flexibility on the part of the applicant, though - if she is from an over represented area, throw in a few more, if he is HYPS or bust, apply to all 4, then start counting 8-10, need lots of merit aid, add a few more schools.</p>

<p>Another scenario that doesn't get much press here because of the hype over getting into the most prestigious/strenuous/academic/best known/Ivy school possible is this - how often do you think a marginal kid applies to 15-20 schools, slips into their last one by the skin of their teeth, and is miserable - over their hear academically, etc?</p>