<p>Do bear in mind that the US News rankings are "endogenous" - that is, to some extent, they are a self-fulfilling prophecy. Second, I've found that because USN is so heavily weighted towards admissions, schools often catch up to it a couple years later - in other words, USNR tend to be a "leading" indicator. They tend to be one of the first sources to rank a school higher early on.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, however, reputation and prestige are "lagging" indicators. If I remember correctly, the NBER's use of a few years at a time will also make it a lagging indicator, not to mention that I believe it's a couple years old by now (or do they do it every year?).</p>
<p>(For a concrete economic example, unemployment is typically a "lagging" indicator of an economic recovery, because employers have to turn profits first before they feel comfortable increasing their payrolls. That in turn depends on consumer confidence, which is a classic "leading" indicator.)</p>
<p>One good example of these two phenomena at work (endogeneity and leading/lagging indicators) is Penn, which jumped quite spontaneously from - I believe - #13 to #4 a few years back. It's clearly ridiculous now to claim that Penn doesn't belong in the top 6 or so (7 if you really want to stretch) schools.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, however, schools like Chicago and MIT and CalTech are benefitting somewhat from lag in reputations, while the US News Rankings are, simultaneously, hurting them in addition to prophesying their (very minor) slip.</p>
<p>The ultimate example of a "lag" in reputations is UC Berkeley, and on this I would argue that even USN is lagging. UC Berkeley's reputation is propped up in CA not least by the huge proportions of Asian people who have been slow to adapt to the new reality - Asian culture is the paradigmatic "reputation" culture, and thus lags by as much as thirty or forty years back in this case.</p>
<p>I believe time will soon bear out WashU's status in the top 10, not merely top 11, for the following reasons:</p>
<p>1.) The "centers" of the country are shifting. You've already seen it in the rise of Duke (Raleigh/Durham), Baylor College of Medicine and Rice (Houston). Boston should be fine for the near future, but California (esp. Bay Area) and New York will soon see young professionals passing them up in favor of the better living conditions (real estate, driving, open spaces, environment, taxes, jobs) of currently less-developed places. Students will follow as the "hot" places shift.</p>
<p>2.) Much more importantly, schools that are ranked highly are schools that take good care of their undergraduates in an increasingly search-cost-dominated world. Advising becomes more crucial every year, and schools that go the extra mile to take care of their premeds, career fairs, etc. are increasingly successful and popular. Wash U is notorious for solid advising.</p>
<p>It's my belief that this factor is responsible for Harvard's "slip" from #1 to tied for #1 over the past few years - it began to acquire a reputation for focusing too much on its grad students and neglecting its undergrads. This was one of Summers' top priorities, actually.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Berkeley and Chicago, schools famous mostly for their graduate programs, will continue to suffer in the rankings and be railed against by people who read academic papers - because they're undergraduate rankings, not PhD rankings, and students know that you have to go to a place that puts its undergrads first.</p>
<p>3.) Theoretical, ivory-tower based philosophizing is "out", and practical, hands-on solutions are "in". I'm not quite sure why this is, but you can see it most clearly in the rise of schools like Duke and Penn while Cornell, Chicago, and other theory-dominated schools slip somewhat. It may be that the economy is good and so practical skills are simply in demand, or it may be that the ivory tower has politically shifted too far and the general public is becoming impatient or... I'm not really sure why.</p>