No Safeties....are we ok or not?

Of course applying to more schools increases your chance of admission, as long as you are in the ballpark of meeting their admission standards. It doesn’t increase your chance of admission to any particular school, but if your dream is to go to a Top 10 school and you have a strong application, applying to all 10 of your targets will increase your chances of getting an acceptance vs. only applying to one or two of them. You then make a silly comment that " any student with nothing noteworthy in their application should be able to apply to all the T20s and be guaranteed at least one acceptance." They didn’t say anything about applying to a school with “nothing noteworthy in their application”.

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One thing that might be useful to OP. There’s a lot of talk about how the risk of doing many apps is that you can’t give adequate attention to each. OP, your kids are juniors. So in theory, if they are both on board with shotgunning a high number of match/reach schools, then that specific “disadvantage” (inadequate differentiation) can be overcome with application of time. Suggest to your kids that they do this: Start the process now or over the summer. Read about supplemental essays and think about writing strategy. Demonstrate interest where necessary. (And choose a safety). As of this moment, your kids are in a much better position than a shotgunning senior with a difficult class load and 3 weeks until application deadlines. Use the time! Good luck.

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Hopefully you and your two will be able to visit a bunch of schools to help build a list that includes a few safeties. It is nice to have some choices come May 1.

My D22 applied to a bunch of schools, has good acceptances including one major reach, and is still waiting to hear from a few regular decision school in the high/match and reach categories. Her pandemic academics and testing were disrupted. She applied to RD schools with an ACT score from December. Because admissions have been less predictable lately, you just don’t know if your kid will apply to 15 schools and get into 12 or get into 2.

I don’t doubt it, but common sense tells me that auditing applications almost certainly has taken a huge backseat to processing them over the last few years as volume has skyrocketed. If I were running an admissions office, I would deploy as much human capital as possible to getting through the apps and probably discard a large % of audits.

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Perhaps. But seeing it first hand with my daughter’s friend this year definitely made me take notice. I still wouldn’t chance lying about ECSs as it seems so many kids do.

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My concern about your lists is that some of your match/target schools might just “yield protect” your kids and you could end up empty. You need to throw in at least one or two “TRUE” safeties. Often that is a safe in-state option, but since you are in CA - you need to be careful to figure out which school that might be. You could also toss in a school like Indiana University or Maryland - with their stats, those could be backups. I am not familiar with U Washington - maybe that is your safe option? U Wisconsin could waitlist them so I wouldn’t count on it as a guarantee admit. I’m also not familiar with Holy Cross or Trinity but they could be yield-protect schools??

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Washington isn’t a safety. And isn’t it too late to apply to all these schools?

They are Juniors - getting ahead of next year.

And UMD is not a safety - from the previous note.

Oh sorry. Missed that part.

This is an ever-important consideration. Many schools are likely to get bit this year by the overwhelming amount of applications (and likely learn from yield numbers) and seek to protect against that in the coming cycles. I could imagine many typical “safety” schools for students such as your twins deciding that their stats are almost certain to result in acceptances at “higher ranked” schools and thus reject or waitlist them to better protect their own admission goals.

I agree with the approach of several low target schools as opposed to one or two true safeties. (We call them likelies now, lol).

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My S and D (high school juniors) are finalizing their lists in advance of a summer full of college tours. They do not have any true safeties. Are their lists too risky? What really constitutes a safety for a high stats kid? How many matches/likely equal a safety? They will both ED somewhere and have an ED2 option as well. I would love to identify schools with EA notification in December. Nothing is more safe than a school you are accepted to already! We just haven’t found any they are actually interested in attending. (No need to suggest UC schools. We’ve looked. Not interested.)

Re: your questions:

  • Are their lists too risky? YES
  • What really constitutes a safety for a high stats kid? How many matches/likely equal a safety? This is just my personal opinion, but a “safety” = (1) the kid’s stats are above the 75th percentile of students who get accepted to that college (this you would confirm by looking up the school’s Common Data Set); (2) a college that you know that you can afford; and (3) a school that your kid can really see themselves attending.

S23
ACT: 34 (2 more sittings scheduled, hoping for a 35)
4.0 UW/4.5+W
will have 12 APs including senior year, not the easy ones either
2 Varsity sports, NHS, running for leadership roles senior yr., some other minor ECs and service, PT job
essays and LOR will be very good
will not apply for FA
CA resident
proposed major: Economics Preferences: rigorous academics but not cutthroat, happy friendly students, not rural, not a pervasive heavy drinking scene but good school spirit/community. Likes the preppy vibe and a beautiful campus with nice architecture.

Consider looking at UofA. It’s business school has a decent reputation. Plus, it has a brand new honors college dorm which is the cat’s meow. Univ of Arizona’s OOS merit scholarships are entirely based on unweighted GPA. Your son would qualify for the highest OOS merit scholarship. UofA is big enough to have a drinking scene, but also big enough where there are plenty of students who aren’t into that, so there’s something there for everybody.

Blockquote D23
ACT: 34 (2 more sittings scheduled, hoping for a 35)
4.0 UW/4.6+W
IB Diploma Candidate
1 JV and 1 Varsity sport, 2 unique ECs with leadership and demonstrated interest in target major, NHS, PT job
essays and LOR will be amazing
will not apply for FA
CA resident proposed majors: film/TV/screenwriting, quantitative sociology/QMSS/or similar
Preferences: very specific majors/interests have driven the list, the more urban the better, smart creative students, she can handle a huge school

All of the schools on D23’s list are reaches as well. Consider:
UofA
Univ of Alabama
Auburn University
Univ of Mississippi

** the above 4 schools have good OOS student merit scholarships + solid honors college programs.

some schools on the “Colleges That Change Lives” list (ctcl.org).
UCSB
UCSB College of Creative Studies - major in Writing & Literature

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I think you are missing a major criteria? High stats kids meet those criteria easily and still get rejected from selective schools. I think your missing criteria for the safety is that it also needs to have an over 50% acceptance rate in general? Something like that.

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I agree with your approach if not the specifics. Acceptance rate is key but I think it should slide along with the strength of the student.

Along with the numbers are a realistic understanding of where a student fits in the applicant pool, which makes the process as much art as science.

For example, I see too many parents summarize their students as 1480 / 4.0, look at the Wake Forest CDS, and think that means they are “above the 75th percentile”. It just means they are above the 75th percentile on one factor. You have to look at implied class rank, EC strength, essays, recs, etc.

Some applicants really are above the 75th mark for all key metrics which I would say allows them to consider Wake a likely, despite 33% overall acceptance. But most aren’t.

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By that definition they definitely have safeties on their lists: Univ WI, Univ WA, Trinity, Holy Cross, even Wake Forest. They also both added Syracuse and Fordham where they are far above the 75%.

The other schools you mention won’t check the box for #3.) a school that your kid can really see themselves attending.

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Ok. Best wishes to you! I think it’s good that you’re asking now instead of spring of senior year!

Assured admission for stats that the student has would make a safety, assuming that it is affordable.

High stats students should have an easier time finding such safeties than lower stats students. The main issue that higher stats students and their parents tend to think that such colleges are “beneath” them.

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In the thread I linked way above by Andi….about Andison…his stats were at or above the 75%ile at some of his schools. He was still shut out, because these were competitive schools…and the applicants from year to year are not the same. And add to that the very low acceptance rates…admissions are not exactly predictable. Clearly, he was a strong student who was accepted to MIT the second time (as well as everywhere else he applied except the repeat schools).

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Do you not think that yield protection is much of an issue for high stats students at higher acceptance rate schools? That certainly got in my head for both my kids - I felt like they could have been shut out of highly selective schools and then yield protected out of the less selective schools. So I made sure they did demonstrated interest, etc. I am not sure I know the answer to the question of how common yield protection is - I am guessing it has gotten more common these past few years as apps have gone up at so many schools?

Your daughter should look at Virginia Commonwealth University (Richmond) or Univ of Wisconsin at Milwaukee for their film schools. Both highly rated film schools, urban, and major unis in case she decides something else is calling her attention. My daughter planning on film looked at both and loved them. But she changed her mind about the major and went elsewhere. They would be safeties for your daughter.

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Can be at some. But some have stated automatic admission (or scholarship) criteria for specific stat levels, so that would not require playing the level of interest game.

Example: https://admission.asu.edu/first-year/apply

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