no worries, huge congrats to your kid.
–OP
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Part of it is because we emphasized “loving the school that loves you” and getting comfortable with picturing yourself at a likely and not a reach.
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Hi there,
As I’ve mentioned, we struggled defining “safeties” as well, and between this post and others on the board wondering if this year is a window into the future, I thought I’d share how everything ended up for us.
Son’s stats: 1500 SAT, 95.5 average, IB Diploma, strong (but not exceptional) ECs/leadership/community service, solid recommendations, great essays (but more on this below). Full pay white male from a highly selective public school in NYC. Bio/Biochem anticipated major.
I don’t know for sure if the schools we picked as safeties were actually safeties, or if they were really matches to which he was accepted, but they were SUNY Binghamton, University of Pittsburgh, and Syracuse (he is a double alum and apparently they care about alum status). He was accepted to all of them (Honors at Pitt and $20k/year merit at SU). For Bing and Pitt he was accepted before Jan 1 so we didn’t have to reach deeper into the safety search, though had he been deferred or rejected from them we still would have had time.
Reaches were also easy for him to pick and he liked Yale (rejected SCEA), Johns Hopkins (rejected RD), McGill and Carnegie Mellon University (accepted and he plans to attend CMU).
Matches were tough for us to pick as he liked Bing and Pitt and was very happy to attend either one if he didn’t get one of his top reach places and didn’t want to apply to the “middle group” of schools. He did end up applying to Case Western (waitlisted) and U of Wisconsin - Madison (waitlisted).
All’s well that ends well and we are all thrilled about Carnegie Mellon.
What I would have done differently: I still would have had him apply to more “match” schools. Like I’ve heard from so many people, the waitlists were somewhat of a surprise. If he hadn’t gotten CMU I would have liked for him to have more options. I would have gotten many of the applications in even earlier. An earlier application to Pitt may have resulted in merit $$; EA at Wisconsin may have resulted in an acceptance (he did not apply there until Feb 1). I think one of the trends that may be accelerating is the use of ED in determining interest. Yale was such a longshot and I wonder if we “wasted” it on a school where he had such a low chance.
What I think worked: As I’ve already mentioned, having an acceptance to a school you like before the Jan 1 deadlines is really important. He did submit his SATs to all schools, even though for CMU and JHU 1500 is below the 50th percentile. We decided that not submitting implied a much lower score than 1500 and I think that was right (or at least it did not derail him at CMU and I suspect is not the reason he didn’t get into JHU).
I do think that essays are not just about strong/weak/unique/common. Even among strong essays, it’s how they show a window into a student and who they are, and if what they reveal about a student is the type of things the school is looking for. I don’t think it is a coincidence that every person involved in this process with us (school counselor, essay coach, SAT tutor) said at one point or another “I could really see him at CMU”. When we visited campus, my son seemed to “connect” there in a way he didn’t at other places. I don’t know much about college essays, but when I read his, and particularly the CMU supplement, it just simply sounded like him. And then when I read the literature from CMU, it all matches up that he is the type of kid they are looking for. I think some of what we perceive as “randomness” in the accepts/waitlists/rejections that don’t always seem to line up is about match in a way that is beyond stats and ECs.
I wish you luck next year with both of your kids. My younger one still has a few years before I have to do this again…
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Then, with your permission, I would like to do a summary of what happened to all schools that my D22 applied.
Please note that school ranks/categories are just based on my own assumption that I had felt over the years and I could be wrong.
Safety - BU and UCSD were a little surprise, but I think she could come off the WL.
Accepted - UCD, UCI, UCSB, BC, Brandeis
Waitlisted - BU, UCSD
Denied - None
Target - Many may disagree with schools in this category, but the results are somewhat on my side.
Accepted - UCB, CMU, NYU, Wesleyan
Waitlisted - UCLA, Vanderbilt, Emory
Denied- Pomona College
Reach - Well, reaches were reaches.
Accepted - Georgetown
Waitlisted - Dartmouth, Duke, Amherst
Denied - Harvard, Yale, Brown, UPenn, Cornell, Williams, Northwestern, Stanford
Reviewing the result, luckily, my estimations weren’t that bad, and we’re really grateful that she’s got into Georgetown-SFS.
My D22 had applied ED to Williams with confidence(?) that she will make it. Since her top choice always had been Georgetown, it took a while for her to convince herself to take a shot at Williams and be done with it. After being deferred, it was really stressful and painful three months until she received her first acceptance. That’s why I had mentioned in earlier post that my only regret was that she didn’t applied to any EA schools.
For waitlists, she’s got some feedback from Dartmouth and she will pursue it. We know it’s a long shot and not counting on, but if she comes off the waitlist, she will have to decide between Georgetown and Dartmouth. She fell in love with Dartmouth after her interview with an alumni.
Overall, we’re really happy with the results although we realize that where she lacked in national awards and research works could’ve been the differences in reach schools. However, I couldn’t have asked her anymore, she’s had a great run and I am so proud of her for achieving her dream.
Thank you all for your support and comments!
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Great results. Just an observation for students and families who are reading: of all the schools on the list, maybe I’d put Brandeis as a target (and only because I haven’t looked at the school’s recent stats). All the rest I’d have put entirely in the reach category even though the student has fantastic stats. The “safeties” worked out nicely, but under no circumstances would I ever suggest any of those schools as safeties because their acceptance rates are too low.
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Obviously, BU and UCSD were not safeties…
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Obviously they were not, however, my understanding of safeties were that if you could get accepted in majority of them.
No…a safety is a school where you have a very strong likelihood of acceptance. It has nothing to do with the number of schools on your safety list. It is a description of your acceptance likelihood at EACH of the schools.
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Congratulations on the results! For what it is worth and for the benefit of future applicants (and echoing what @evergreen5 wrote) I’m not so sure that schools like Berkeley, UCLA, Vanderbilt, and Pomona are “targets” for even high stat applicants like your daughter. With 110K and 150K applicants, respectively, Berkeley and UCLA have become extremely unpredictable for everyone, especially with TO. (This is true of some of the other UCs on your “safety” list as well.) Vanderbilt had a 6% acceptance rate this year, and Pomona had a 6% acceptance rate last year (its numbers aren’t out for this year, but given the trends I’ll be surprised if the % isn’t even lower this year.)
Regardless, it worked out for you, so congratulations again, and wishing you continued good luck!
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Yes, I totally agree with you that most of my D’s target schools shouldn’t be the target schools. It was just subjective thinking in my head not considering what’s been happening in the last couple of years in college admission.
However, for UCB and UCLA , I had numbers from her high school, 30%/17%, that I really believed that she will make it to at least one of them. Then again, I could’ve been wrong too.
Safety means assured admission (including to major if the major is a more selective or competitive one) and assured affordability.
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For UCB, a less well known web site offers recent admission and yield rates by division and GPA range. This may be more helpful at estimating chances.
From OPA – University of California Berkeley , choose the Academic Indicators tab. “Last updated on October 22, 2021” for the “last 3 complete application cycles”.
GPA appears to be weighted, not capped. Calculate using GPA Calculator for the University of California – RogerHub
Admission rates only:
| GPA | L&S | CoE | CoC | CNR | CED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.800-4.000 | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 11.5% | 8.7% |
| 4.001-4.199 | 10.6% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 23.7% | 14.7% |
| 4.200-4.399 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 17.5% | 38.9% | 29.1% |
| 4.400-4.599 | 34.8% | 16.4% | 33.3% | 53.0% | 39.5% |
| 4.600-4.799 | 40.9% | 21.4% | 39.6% | 52.4% | 49.4% |
| 4.800-5.000 | 41.5% | 20.7% | 36.2% | 46.1% | 43.0% |
Yield rates only:
| GPA | L&S | CoE | CoC | CNR | CED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.800-4.000 | 56.8% | 55.9% | 61.3% | 65.6% | 61.5% |
| 4.001-4.199 | 56.3% | 65.0% | 61.5% | 55.2% | 54.2% |
| 4.200-4.399 | 49.2% | 54.3% | 53.7% | 50.6% | 39.2% |
| 4.400-4.599 | 39.7% | 49.7% | 43.6% | 40.9% | 37.4% |
| 4.600-4.799 | 28.3% | 47.1% | 47.1% | 29.1% | 38.1% |
| 4.800-5.000 | 21.5% | 33.7% | 33.7% | 23.4% | 32.8% |
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This.
Upthread there was a comment that the poster didn’t really credit the concept of ‘fit’. I agree that it has been been overused and misused, but I think there are still 2 key things about the concept that are worth holding on to:
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some schools really are ‘fit’ schools from the student’s pov: they either really suit the student- or they really don’t. Examples are MIT, Dartmouth, CMU and Vassar.
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looking for the ‘fit’ between the student and the college can help students in focusing their efforts on places where what they have to offer is something that is recognized or sought after by the colleges they are targeting, and for shaping the overall narrative arc of their application.
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Well they did it! Each raised their lowest ACT subsection by 4 points for a 35 composite. Cancelling the June sitting. At least now they feel confident that they did what they could and that other than essays still to be written everything else is out of their control. I think it was helpful for them to itemize what they can control and what they can’t.
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That’s great!
If they can maintain GPA and put together great essays and LOR, they will be fine.
Wish best of luck to you and your kids.
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