NY Semi-finalist Chances

Hello! I am currently a junior and part of the class of 2025. So I took the PSAT and scored a 1460, or a selective index of 218. I live in the state of New York so the average selective index of the past couple of years was around 220. However, the class of 2025 apparently scored much lower than the previous 3 years as around 20,000 less students scored 1400 or above in the nation. Although I know that this will lower the national selective index for semi-finalists, what are the chances that the New York selective index will drop enough for me to qualify?

Can’t say I know too much cause I’m '25 too, but I’d say there’s definitely a chance but don’t necessarily count on it. CompassPrep predicts 219 even with the dip, but they give a range of 217-221 as also possible.