Welcome @Smiles2122! This is a great group! I also have '21 and '22 kiddos (mine are both daughters). You’ll find varying opinions, but to me a true safety school needs much closer to 75% admit. Nothing feels really “safe” this year! I’d say reach 25% or less, target 26-50%, likely 51% or higher.
Welcome @smiles2122 ! Sounds like your daughter is on top of this! Please share as much as you want! Does your school use Naviance? That can be helpful when figuring out what would be safe/match/reach within the context of the school’s history. Naviance has limits - so for example if only a few kids from her school have applied to a particular place in recent years it might not be accurate because the sample size is too small. Also things have changed rapidly over the past few years so if the data is older, it might not be as predictive.
Tell us about your daughter! What is she looking for in a school?
Congrats @chillycow - that must be a great feeling.
Thank you! Such a welcoming community. Our school does have Naviance - it is like a parent video game, so addicting. Yes, the scattercharts are hard to interpret because they go back so far. @Rue4, thank you, those buckets are helpful. My D’s list tends to be mostly in that target range. Her first choice is Wellesley and then Vassar and Bryn Mawr are sort of tied after that. Her stats line up and I think her ECs are pretty good but so, so hard to tell. I think she wants to try Wellesley ED1 and then if she doesn’t get in, do Bryn Mawr EDII. Her stats are above theirs so one would that could be a safe bet but I understand having a true safety in there. Because she wants a small LAC on the east coast, the safeties are even tricky. She is pre-health, biochem type path. She also has Franklin & Marshall, Wesleyan, and Conn College on her list. She is very progressive in her politics so that is important for her. Any other suggestions would be appreciated!
NMSC released the requirements and Instructions for the semifinalists in the 2021 NMS Program. Per the document "“Due to the global pandemic and the resulting lack of available test administrations, SAT and ACT scores will not be required or considered for Finalist standing in the 2021 National Merit Scholarship Program.” So, NMSC decided to go test blind. They will release names of semifinalists to media on Sept. 9th. Congratulations to all the semifinalists.
http://www.nationalmerit.org/resources (for the requirements and instructions for semifinalists)
@smiles2122 Bard and Sarah Lawrence might be good safeties for her as far as fit is concerned, but I’m not sure about their offerings in biochemistry.
S21 will be submitting all 7 of his apps next week! Eeek! All instate (except 1), all Rolling Admissions…4 assured admit safeties we know he’ll be get in…the real wait will
be for his holistic review apps UT (not likely to get admitted lol) and Texas A&M (decent match but going TO so who knows!) probably won’t hear back from until Jan/Feb.
@Smiles2122 I often hear F&M and Gettysburg mentioned in the same breath. Has she looked at Gettysburg College?
@smiles2122 - Welcome - former Boulder resident here 
My daughter has similar schools on her list and her school ranked Conn College and Skidmore in her safety range. I know they don’t fit the typical safety - so just telling you what her school put down for her and the history from students applying from our area/school. Besides the overlap with Wellesley and Vassar - she fell in love with Carleton (strong in sciences). Not east coast, but has a similar campus feel and highly recommend a look. We had a wonderful girl from Boulder tour us at Grinnell last year too - again midwest, but Carleton is less isolated. What about Smith ? Sounds like she has her ED choices all set, so know it is just finding the next set that she would be equally excited about. What about a EA type school like University of Vermont (most likely honors) and she would have an acceptance in or another EA school that doesn’t conflict with the rules for ED.
@Rue4, we haven’t - we will check it out, thanks!
@coffeeat3, Hi! Do you miss Boulder? That is so smart about an east coast EA, will check that out. D21 is hooked on east coast but S22 has Carleton on his list, I will have him check out Grinnell, too. We haven’t been able to visit anywhere due to Covid - am so curious about the feel of Carleton. His top 3 are Swarthmore, Haverford and Carleton. Your D21 sounds like my D21!
@smiles2122 My D21 is also considering some women’s colleges, including Bryn Mawr.
For a safer option - maybe check out Muhlenberg (PA), which is great for pre-med and theatre. For a match/low reach Oberlin (OH) would line up with both her academic interests and her politics. Both offer merit scholarships.
For all of you Colorado folks, what’s your take on Colorado College?
Welcome @smiles2122! So much helpful info on these boards. I am not familiar with the schools your D is considering but wanted to say hi and welcome.
You all are amazing! @gotham_mom, I was curious about Sarah Lawrence, will look at it more. @mamaedefamilia that’s great, we are so impressed by the professor access at these women’s colleges. I will check out Muhlenberg. I have been a little wary of Oberlin with their campus unrest but haven’t looked at how it is recently. Also, I grew up in Michigan so my D21 knows she doesn’t like the midwest as much. For Colorado College, it has a really good reputation here. It does have the block schedule so you would need to know if your student would thrive in that environment. There may be some tension in the community between the more liberal campus and the conservative Colorado Springs community but I don’t know if I am right about that. And thank you @123Mom123! What a nice resource this is. And anyone who is curious about Ann Arbor and Univ of Michigan, I grew up there and went to school there. My info may be old but I can still rave about Ann Arbor. 
Oh and @coffeeat3, that is really interesting about Skidmore ending up on her safety list. I am going to check them on our Naviance. Maybe some schools are more predictable with how they treat stats?
Welcome, @smiles2122 ! I love your daughter’s ED choices. If I got to apply to college again, I think Bryn Mawr would be my #1. Great traditions—the lanterns, the statue of Athena, walking down the lawn between the trees, etc. D21 said best food hands down, but she’s not sold on a women’s college. Wellesley and Vassar are beautiful too. (We live in NY and just spent a few days hiking near New Paltz, 20 min from Vassar. Love the Catskills and Hudson Valley, plus, an easy train ride from the city. Great rock-climbing in the Gunks, too.)
It is very tough to find LAC safeties with the vibe of those schools. I would second Skidmore as a “safer” school. Although the campus isn’t classic and Hogwarts-like, D21 loves how it is up on a hill in the woods, and Saratoga Springs is charming. We know kids there from our high school and they say it is very liberal like Vassar, although more laid back in general. We also visited Conn College (I wrote up a review on their CC page), and Franklin and Marshall. Not sure whether you’ve been able to visit any of those with the pandemic etc. Has your D considered Mount Holyoke?
Welcome @smiles2122!
I don’t know much about safeties, but from what I have read on here it has to be a school your D would be happy to attend.
@Momof3B Good luck to your son. S21 submitted his TAMU app, but he is procrastinating on UT.
@3SailAway that is so funny, I have said that exact same thing, I would love to go to Bryn Mawr now (except for the tests and papers). And for a women’s college, Haverford is so close so maybe your D will factor that in. My D loved your description - so great since we weren’t able to do our big visit trip in March. I wish we could see all of these places so she could know if she could picture herself at Skidmore. She has Smith and Mount Holyoke on her next tier list - she also isn’t sold completely on a women’s college (besides Wellesley and Bryn Mawr because of their science reputations). That said, that is really hard to gauge and I have heard all the sisters’ colleges invest in science.
Separate question - I am noticing people talking about sending in apps now. Should my D be sending it/them in soon if they are almost done? Her ED school isn’t rolling so would that one matter? I guess if she does an EA one soon maybe she could hear somewhat soon? That hadn’t even occurred to us since we have been focused on small LACs that generally aren’t rolling.
If you feel your daughter is ready to submit the apps and if you aren’t waiting on anything (like to hear whether or not she will receive an award), then I feel it can only help to submit the apps. D21 is about to start all her classes, and if she had not finished the majority of her apps and submitted them already, the process would end up becoming very stressful as she tried to juggle apps with her schoolwork. She still has a few apps to finish because she has not yet decided on her ED2 school (I will pm you about that) and she is waiting for an answer from one admissions officer before submits an RD app. The supplemental essays for those ED contendors are finished, though. She does still need to write one supplemental essay from scratch for a lotto school. I don’t think that school is a good fit for her ayway so I am kind of hoping she never has time to write it.
Welcome!
Hi, @smiles2122, welcome!
We have visited both F&M and Gettysburg. While F&M is probably a little more mainstream than the others on your list, Gettysburg would definitely be more so, with a fairly strong Greek presence. I would not go so far as to say Gettysburg is conservative (it’s on my D’s list… she’s progressive but presents as fairly mainstream) but it might not be your daughter’s first choice safetyif she wants a more left-leaning campus vibe. I agree that Skidmore might be one to take a closer look at (even though I haven’t visited it). One thing that I’ve learned about Skidmore, is that it is quite selective from a holistic standpoint even though its GPA/SAT/ACT range is not as high as some selective schools. For Skidmore, demonstrated student interest and fit for the school is condered very closely for admissions, so, if interested, your daughter should show that (otherwise, it can’t be considered a safety). What are some of your daughter’s other interests?
My H and D are currently on the way to Denison for a tour and in-person interview! They will be the only ones touring with their student guide, masked and distanced, of course. Students are on campus but will probably be scarce on a Saturday. First college visit in more than a year. Not ideal, and will likely be hard to figure out student vibe but at least it will be something. They left before dawn and will return in the evening, It will be quite a slog through iffy weather, but the forecast looks much better than it did yesterday and I’m holding my breath for no rain during the tour. Wish I were going too, but I’m a person who needs frequent bathroom breaks and am not a fan of public bathrooms these days. This will be my H’s first college tour with her, so that part is nice.
de-select regular decision acceptance, waitlist, and rejection on the scattergram so you can see what happen in the ED round. For a school like Weseleyan it’s probably close to 100% acceptance.
Good luck to all those able to test today! Yay my D is one of them, it’s her 1st so we are happy she will have a score finally, hoping for the best!