Parents of the HS Class of 2021 (Part 1)

@3SailAway, @kbm770, @AlwaysMoving, @smiles2122 , @mamaedefamilia Thanks for all your comments!

D’s college “journey” with no visits has been rocky. 1st ED love was Barnard, until reading that there’s not much of a community due to NY and women socializing at Columbia. Not a place for an introvert. Next it was Brown. A dream, with P/F grades and super liberal, until I found a paper about how STEM has taken over and the humanities (her focus) are underfunded and under-enrolled. And, it’s intense, enrolling top over-achievers. Her friend’s sister, not an introvert, has developed an ulcer, though she loves the school. One of her close advisors/teacher told her not to ED. So, we’re hoping she’ll have some choices come April and be able to visit!

Still thinking of possible ED for S, more go with the flow guy applying to universities not LAC.s Northwestern is attractive bc we have a direct flight to Chicago, a rarity from hear. And, they have applied math in engineering, if he decides on that. Other main contender is Duke. No applied math, but seems very interdisciplinary. And bc H went there and we’ve been watching Duke BB for years, it feels like I know it though I’ve never been. And, we visited Cornell with older S and S21 thought it was great (summer) but the campus is so far from the airport (after very long flight). The fear is if he doesn’t do ED, every school is a crapshoot!

I would consider NU, Duke, and Cornell as more academically intense than Brown…I do realize some may have different opinions.

I wish D had a clear favorite for ED, but she just can’t narrow it down. She visited a couple of her favorites in person last fall, but only briefly, and besides, it’s tough to compare a place where you’ve been on campus to one you’ve only seen online. She’s very excited about a school she never visited that admitted 70% of their freshman class through ED last year, so regardless of fit/stats/etc., it’s a tough admit for anyone in the RD round. It may be wishful thinking, but I have to believe that – outside of T20, perhaps – fewer students will apply ED this year?

ETA: @havenoidea I’ve also heard – likely on this thread! – that NU is extremely intense. If you want to try scrolling back or search the thread, you may find more info.

Was this posted on our thread yet? I saw it on another thread and found it helpful and since we are talking about EDs: https://www.bigjeducationalconsulting.com/resources. Click on the PDF button and you will see all the ED data compiled for college class of '23. Of course, big grains of salt since we don’t know what will happen this very special year…that said, it could still be interesting to see the ratios that schools have employed in the past.

@smiles2122 Yes! That’s what’s been making me so nervous! :blush:

A possibly paranoid logistical question – D has been using her personal email for college information, visit registrations, etc. We now know that she is required to use her school email for Naviance (transcripts/LORs/etc.), and her Common App account. Does she need to let AOs know she’s used two different emails? She’s demonstrated pretty clear interest to several places that consider it very important. (FWIW, it is highly unlikely there is another person with her name applying to these schools.)

@smiles2122 My kid did the online info sessions with both Smith and Bryn Mawr (live and interactive, not prerecorded) and they were both very well done. IIRC they included both admissions officers and current students and the Q&A also provided a lot of good information.

@havenoidea Interesting report about Brown - I had not heard that humanities/social sciences were being marginalized or that it was stressful. The reputation is that it’s more chill than many of the other Ivies. I’ve heard a lot of reports about stress culture at Cornell.

We are not considering ED here and while maybe it’s wishful thinking, I suspect that ED rates will be down. I would think that being unable to visit campus in advance plus economic uncertainties due to COVID would make parents more cautious about opting for ED. Personally, I also would like to be able to evaluate the COVID mitigation plans for schools of interest and to see how well they do, which will say something both about the comprehensiveness of the plans and how well the students comply with restrictions. While I hope that fall 2021 will be less restrictive, I suspect that some degree of COVID management will be with us for awhile.

I agree that the number of ED applications will be down, but schools will want to fill as many spots from ED as they can. Those admits are locked in and won’t melt if bad news pops up.

S21 could never commit to an ED app, every week he has a different favorite school.

That sounds like D21 with ED2. She is having a very hard time deciding. There are three schools in the running, and every day she prefers a different one. She has attended student Q&A sessions for each and she still can’t decide.

Good points by @mamaedefamilia 's that ED apps may be down. Has anyone read or heard anymore on this? What is everyone’s two cents around this? More ED apps, same, or fewer?

This is a really interesting question. I suspect that ED applications will be down. This is based on several factors.

  1. Demographically, this class is smaller than in year’s past. ED apps were down for class of 2024 for the first time in about a decade. Our kids were born right after 9/11 and the population took a dip.
  2. Covid. Lack of ability to visit campus to secure a first choice. Without a visit, a lot of people may not want to commit to ED.
  3. Economic. With so much uncertainty and changes in financial situations, it is risky for a lot of people to apply ED.
  4. Schools may not be willing to offer as much financial aid this year which would deter people from applying ED that need $$.
  5. People may want to see how Covid plays out. They may want to keep their kids close to home.
  6. Testing. Even though most schools are test optional, some people may still be trying to have their kids test and the scores wouldn’t be ready in time for ED.

ED acceptance rates will increase.

  1. Schools will be looking for full pay which they need based on economic losses due to Covid. Most ED applications are full pay.
  2. Schools need yield. They need the certainty that students will attend. Yield numbers will likely go down due to Covid and ED1 and ED2 help this.
  3. Increase in yield will reduce acceptance rates overall which will keep the elite schools looking prestigious. Increase in yield will also help with rankings. Without test scores, they will need something else to help keep up their ranking.

I also think that the schools will know if someone is throwing in an ED for a boost without ever visiting or without a connection (legacy, athlete, etc…). I have watched a lot of panels and one school in particular had an AO who said NOT to apply to ED thinking you will get a boost if you haven’t visited or have no connection. It won’t help increase their admissions probability.

If your child has a clear choice for ED and you are totally secure with ED (financially, fit, etc…) I can’t think of a better year to apply ED.

Just my two cents…

@Meddy, @mamaedefamilia I hope ED rates will be down, but my paranoid side says they’ll go up bc people may be afraid of the kids in 2020 who deferred taking spots. I hope I’m wrong! H is going to call alumni office at Duke to try to see what the situation is.

Re, Duke, NU, and Cornell, those are on S21, not D21’s list (though she may apply to ILR, which is its own little program at Cornell). S21 is D21’s opposite in many ways. He’s 100% math/STEM, she hates math, loves writing, which is definitely not his strong suit. In fact, he’s dreading all the supplements if he doesn’t do ED.

@kanfly – I think that’s smart analysis. I would only add that a few colleges known for really big ED bumps might get increases – I’m thinking of Northwester, WashU, Vandy in particular – b/c students will see this as they year they might get in and so will take a shot. But this is just a guess – will be interesting to see.

But I think for most highly selective colleges ED apps will be flat or down for the reasons you cite.

We got the FAFSA countdown and instruction guide from our college counselor today…Now the wait to Oct 1 starts. I’m going to pawn this task off to my husband, I have no desire to tackle this one lol.

Now I am weighing in late on what you weighed in late about. :smile: Have you seen this thread? There is some good analysis here on percent of math majors that get PhDs after attending that school, etc. http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/1692361-best-liberal-arts-colleges-for-mathematics.html. Unfortunately that data is 6 years old so not sure how much has changed. This is PhD production listed on Reed’s website so maybe it is current - https://www.reed.edu/ir/phd.html. Lots of LACs on there, really surprised me.

My S22 is an intense math guy with intentions of getting a PhD and also likes the LAC environment. Couple things I learned in that thread and elsewhere - if that LAC is like Swarthmore or Haverford in a consortium, they have access to grad level courses at Penn (or whatever U they are close to). (Also maybe Carleton and UMinn?) Also, some LACs have deeper math course catalogs than others. And some math PhDs who went to LACs speak highly of the professor access in undergrad since there aren’t grad students around to compete with for research opportunities. If your S likes proofs and also likes humanities - check out Reed. They have a great process and numbers for placing students into math PhD programs partly due to their senior thesis requirement.

One more data point I have is my S does those summer math intensives and many PhD instructors there went to LACs and speak highly of the experience and preparation.

regarding your reason #1, I googled the birth data and found that it is a little dip for high school class '20, but not '21.

1994 3,979,000 15.3
1995 3,892,000 14.8
1996 3,899,000 14.7
1997 3,882,000 14.5
1998 3,941,553 14.6
1999 3,959,417 14.5
2000 4,058,814 14.7
2001 4,025,933 14.1
2002 4,021,726 13.9
2003 4,089,950 14.1
2004 4,112,052 14.0
2005 4,138,349 14.0
2009 4,131,019 13.8

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This is a really interesting question. I suspect that ED applications will be down. This is based on several factors.

  1. Demographically, this class is smaller than in year’s past. ED apps were down for class of 2024 for the first time in about a decade. Our kids were born right after 9/11 and the population took a dip.

Just my two cents…

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Another potential impact on the ED round will be the number of foreign students.

My S21 won’t commit to any ED. He might have done it for VT of we’d been able to go to their open house last Spring but without that he doesn’t feel strongly enough that it’s 100% his first choice.

@JESmom – I asked my S a couple weeks ago if he wanted to ED at VT and he said he didn’t b/c he hadn’t visited a couple other colleges high on his list so he’ll just do EA.

Thanks, @smiles2122 . I hadn’t seen that thread. He might like Reed. It wasn’t on his radar because he’s turned off by super far left leaning vibes. He is definitely left leaning, but really values open discourse. If anyone knows otherwise about Reed, please chime in.

Good discussion on that thread. Lots to think about. He’s trying to finalize a list, cramming six months of research into two weeks. And without the benefit of any college visits.