@SueLyon
Itās funny how different people read the same information so differently. I read Jeff Selingoās book and found it incredibly helpful and affirming. Iām glad you read it before your childās college search is in full swing, and hope you can take some of the information and use it constructively.
We, too, are a family who would be full pay according to any college aid calculator. We, too, werenāt willing to pay full price anywhere. Weāve now gone through this process twice (D20 and D23) and both of them were accepted everywhere they applied and all but one school came in at or under the budget we determined before we started. It can be done, and your child can get an outstanding education at the schools where you can afford to send them.
The first thing to do is figure out the real, specific number you are willing to pay per year for undergrad. Remember to figure in cost of attendance increases of about 3-5% each year of undergrad (yes, the cost continues to rise while they are in college).
Then, start to construct your childās college list from the ground up using your determined budget as the boundary.
We didnāt create either of our childrenās college list based upon college names. We asked if child to tell us what they wanted in a school (urban/suburban/rural, distance from home, size of campus, activities offered, whether study abroad was important, if they wanted to go Greek, majors, weather, location amenities, food options, etc. etc.).
Based on those answers, I helped D20 and D23 find schools that fit most or all of their requirements which would also fit our familyās budget. That meant, by and large, letting the idea go of a highly selective school. Reed was on D20ās list, she visited and loved itā¦it was never going to work financially so it didnāt make the final list. We did, though, find schools that had a lot of the same stuff Reed offered that she likedā¦at a much more reasonable price.
Net Price Calculators are going to be your friend. Many schools, especially outside the Top 50 - often include merit estimates in their NPCs. We found them to be very accurate in how much our children were offered, as long as the information we provided was accurate. The only differential we found was a couple of schools actually offered more than the NPC predicted in merit aid.
Some schools also offer individual financial pre-reads. I think there is a thread on CC that lists many of them, but you can also ask specific schools if they would be willing to give a financial pre-read for merit before applying. The schools know finances are a factors for the majority of applicants, no one will blink at these kinds of questions.
@EconPop is right that this is all going to come down to what strategy you want to pursue once you decide what you are actually willing to pay. Applying broadly can be a successful strategy when pursuing merit aid, as can a more targeted approach. D20 applied to 3 schools, D23 applied to 4. All acceptances and 6/7 were affordable (D23 decided to apply to a financial reach school, it came up about $12k short in merit for it to be affordable). All 7 schools were academic safeties for D20 and D23.
If you are looking for help figuring out colleges that might work for your child, CC is a great place to get more ideas. If you start a thread with your childās requirements/wants and your budget (as well as some basic academic stats) there are tons of experienced posters on this board who can give you recommendations with fairly current merit information.
This will work out - getting to the point you are early enough is a huge accomplishment!