I also disagree that full pay is the main thing they are concerned with. If I were in admissions- the main thing I would be concerned about is accepting a high stats kid where the parent did most of the work. I think colleges are trying to weed out the kids that only do activities and well in school because their parents are lawnmower parents. It must be hard for them to distinguish the kids with the inner drive versus the kids that just do what they are told. I fear that sometimes very accomplished kids get rejected not because the college is concerned about yield or full pay- but because they are trying to weed out the kids that the parents did the real work. I know I try to weed out these kids when I interview to work on my team.
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Itâs gettinâ real, yâall. In about 15 1/2 months, weâre going to be dropping our kids off for freshman year at college.
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I canât even think about that.
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Where this came about was a bit randomâŠ
My DH went off the deep end this morning about driving the kids to school. 3 of us are drivers (me, DH, D24), but we have 2 cars. I would very much like to NOT have to buy a 3rd car right now. And D24 isnât going to have a car in college freshman year anyway. So canât we figure out how to make it work?
DH lost his marbles about it, blurted out that he wasnât going to drive the kids to/from school from here on outâŠwe had heated terse words with each other over itâŠAnd in the course of the âdiscussion,â I told DH, âItâs only 15 1/2 months until D24 goes off to college. Iâd REALLY like to NOT have another car payment right now. Canât we SOMEHOW figure out how to make this work?â
âŠand then he pulled his head out of his rear end and said, âOh. Right. 15 1/2 months? Yeah, we can do that.â
THEN he wanted to talk about making D24 drive to/from school right now through end of the school yearâŠon rush hour freeways and all that. Nope, not doing that right now. Kid is stressed enough right now as it is with studying for all of her AP exams. Weâre sticking with the status quo until end of the school year. Next school year, sheâll drive herself & sister to/from school. But not now.
THEN he went off the deep end about how itâs âweirdâ if you go off to college and donât even have a driverâs license. UmâŠbut she DOES have a driverâs license, so why is that even a concern? 
God help me. God help us all. 
I think families who make between $250k-$350 will still have a hard time with full pay if the cost is $90k per year unless they have a lot of savings and/or live in a low cost of living area.
A typical upper middle class family will probably spend about 30-35% of their income just on taxes (State, Federal, FICA etc). Im not sure how many families in that demographic group will commit to such a high out of pocket cost when there are much less expense options between state universities and private with merit, especially if they have multiple children.
I think full pay for $80k-90k schools comes in with families making over $500k or large 529 plans theyâved saved for years.
Im sure some families would be willing to full pay no matter the cost if their kids got into certain schools while other families who are millionaires refuse to full pay just on principle even if they could afford it.
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Speaking as someone who started a 529 for each kid at birth and religiously contributed to it, there really is no such thing as a 529 large enough to pay $80-90/K a year. Remember that over eighteen years, any investment goes through cycles. While it grows over time, it has its ups and downs. Depending on where you are in the cycle when it comes time for college is a big deal (i.e., you have to plan ahead from an investment standpoint). Wife and I thought our strategy would be enough for any schoolâŠit likely was in 2003. Now, well, itâs nice to have, but it ainât paying T50 full rate.
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I feel your pain on saving in the 529 since birth and it not being enough - with the market where it is, our savings probably cover around half. We have 2024 twins, both of whom are looking at privates. One will not even consider in state due to education politics in Florida. So there are thoughts about whatâs âworth it.â We can make full pay work with some pain, and currently think itâs worth it if they get into their colleges of choice. For us, itâs the small classes that are important. S24 hates online classes and admits he might have a hard time showing up to a lecture with 100+. And, I used to be a professor. Iâve taught large lectures and small seminars and I really value small classes. But itâs hard. I really would love merit money but feel like we have to play the ED game to have a shot at acceptance for my very wonderful, âaverage excellentâ kids.
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That hasnât been our experience. Did exactly that â started at birth and religiously contributed (using monthly auto payments). Funded 100% of first two kids with a $20k surplus in second kids account that will transfer to third kid. Will likely not achieve all of final year cost for third kid in a few years but close enough to not be a problem.
[Looked up the youngest kidâs account just now since its the only one that hasnât been depleted by withdrawals. 48% of the account value is accumulated tax-free interest. Thatâs despite it surviving the great recession, albeit with a small balance given it was just a few years old, and all the market volatility of the last few years.]
We have put money into other things but the smallish amount that is in the kids 529 has basically gone down to just what we contributed, so glad that we were not more aggressive there. S21 goes to a state school that is not expensive and comes out of our salary (amazing how much money you save when you dont have a theater kid at home) and the 529 will pay for 1-2 years if S24 goes to a highly rejective school. If not, he will have a little nest egg to start his adult life with.
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There are colleges with small classes that arenât $80k/year. If you let folks know what your kids are interested in with respect to college interests (or point us to your thread), Iâm sure people will be able to make suggestions.
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We put a fair amount into the 529s but eventually stopped because the performance wasnât great. Given the stock market, that is looking like a good choice in hindsight. S22 is attending our state flagship and wonât use up his 529. S24 is looking at much more expensive schools (and is a stronger student) and weâll most likely have to pay out of pocket for some of his schooling.
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we have been buying ibonds and treasury bonds with better current returns than our 529, and it is safer and can use for either kid. I asked the accountant and they said no point in putting any more in 529
Congratulations, then, on saving $760K+ for college.
We started saving for college since they were born - both 529 accounts did very well, especially when we got more aggressive during 2008 when the market took a hit. As they got older, we converted the funds into more conservative accounts. Our problem is we severely underestimated how expensive college could be. First kid is going out of state at a very inexpensive school due to merit money but second kid wants highly rejective schools and IF he somehow gets lucky and gets in (I believe a little bit of luck is involved with these type of schools), we wonât have enough money saved and will need to pay out of pocket for the last year or two.
If they are thinking of Edâing to a merit based school, the regional rep would be a good point of contact for your child to reach out and ask if they will do a merit pre-read for ED - clarifying they are a twin and parentâs concerned about ED commitment and cost. Obviously, zero guarantee - but worth asking.
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How are you getting to $95k+/yr in costs? ($760k / 2 kids / 4 years)
If I take an average of the Tuition, Room, & Board of the top 10 schools on my D24âs current list (alas, only one in-state), I get ~$65k. Obviously not an all-inclusive list of costs, and still a huge number without any aid, but also quite a ways off from $95k+.
EDIT: As noted by @beebee3, the $760k was referring to a post about 3 kids. Thanks for pointing that out!
Think that was for 3 kids total.
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The advantage of the tax free earnings is that I didnât have to contribute nearly as much as I ended up âsavingâ for withdraws. To use my youngest as an example, I contributed an average of $8K/year (though not consistently over time) over 18 years, then let the cumulative 47.5% tax free interest go to work. I averaged less contribution for the older kids whose costs averaged lower.
Surprisingly, predictions on tuition growth a couple decades ago when I started the first account where not that far off. My recollection was I assumed I would need between $250-300K/kid. The first two came in in that range.
This didnât come easy. When I started the first account our household income was 5-figures and we lived/worked in a very expensive market (commuting an hour each way to keep costs lower; sadly, my commute has only gotten longer since).
$90K times 4 times 2 plus leftover.
You do have to pay taxes on the growth. It is not wholly tax free.