Part II: Ignore the Rankings & Look at the Data (Graduation Differential)

College Search & Selection
1

<p>Everyone has their own personal misgivings about the USNWR rankings, whether it be the weights that are assigned to various data points, the accuracy of various data points, and even the relevance of some data points. So, let’s focus on the data itself and compare the colleges, category by category, and see how they compare. The reader can decide for him/herself the usefulness of the measure for his/her own purposes. </p>

<p>Following is the data for the USNWR Top 50 National Universities and how they compare on Graduation Differential. This is a statistic developed by USNWR that measures the actual 6-year graduation rate with an expected rate based on student selectivity. If anyone has any additional, related data to provide surrounding this category of comparison, then please provide it. </p>

<p>Rank , Differential , College</p>

<p>1 , 22 , Penn State
2 , 9 , Syracuse
3 , 6 , UCLA
3 , 6 , U Illinois
5 , 6 , U Washington
6 , 5 , W&M
6 , 5 , Boston Coll
8 , 4 , Harvard
8 , 4 , Notre Dame
8 , 4 , UC Berkeley
8 , 4 , U Virginia
8 , 4 , Georgetown
8 , 4 , U Michigan
8 , 4 , Lehigh
8 , 4 , U Texas
16 , 3 , Johns Hopkins
16 , 3 , Tufts
16 , 3 , Brandeis
16 , 3 , UC Santa Barbara
20 , 2 , Stanford
20 , 2 , Columbia
20 , 2 , Cornell
20 , 2 , U North Carolina
20 , 2 , U Wisconsin
20 , 2 , U Florida
26 , 1 , Dartmouth
26 , 1 , Brown
26 , 1 , Rice
26 , 1 , UC Davis
26 , 1 , Rensselaer
31 , 0 , Princeton
31 , 0 , Yale
31 , 0 , Duke
31 , 0 , Northwestern
31 , 0 , Vanderbilt
31 , 0 , UCSD
31 , 0 , UC Irvine
38 , -1 , U Penn
38 , -1 , USC
38 , -1 , Wake Forest
41 , -1 , NYU
42 , -2 , MIT
42 , -2 , U Chicago
42 , -2 , U Rochester
45 , -3 , Wash U
45 , -3 , Carnegie Mellon
47 , -5 , Caltech
48 , -6 , Georgia Tech
49 , -7 , Emory
50 , -10 , Case Western
50 , -10 , Tulane</p>

2

<p>Can you post what the actual and predicted graduation results actually were for each school? There's a big difference between a school whose predicted graduation rate is 30% and actual graduaction rate is 40% compared with a school whose predicted rate is 87% and actual graduation rate is 97%, even though they both have a differential of 10%</p>

3

<p>Does this factor in transfer rates?</p>

<p>A student that's at risk at Penn State or UCLA probably can find great resources at their disposal to improve or address issues unnoticed by high schools, but it's the in-state tuition and liberal dual-enrollment programs that keeps them enrolled in the institution. Very few can afford Emory or Chicago for 5-6 years or after a bad year suspends your merit aid.</p>

4

<p>any data on schools ranked 50-100 in National University USNWR rankings? Ditto for 50-100 LAC's?</p>

5

<p>Differential , Expected Graduation Rate , Actual Graduation Rate , School</p>

<p>22 , 63% , 85% , Penn State
18 , 53% , 71% , Ohio Univ
12 , 66% , 78% , Fordham
12 , 69% , 81% , Miami U (OH)
12 , 62% , 74% , Michigan State
12 , 55% , 67% , Howard
12 , 62% , 74% , U New Hampshire
11 , 61% , 72% , Indiana U
11 , 68% , 79% , SUNY-Bing
10 , 64% , 74% , U Connecticut
9 , 73% , 82% , Syracuse
9 , 70% , 79% , Virginia Tech
8 , 65% , 73% , Rutgers
8 , 70% , 78% , Marquette
8 , 68% , 76% , U Dayton
7 , 64% , 71% , Ohio State
7 , 69% , 76% , U Delaware
7 , 58% , 65% , U Oregon
6 , 83% , 89% , UCLA
6 , 76% , 82% , U Illinois
6 , 69% , 75% , U Washington
6 , 67% , 73% , U Pittsburgh
6 , 64% , 70% , Purdue
6 , 60% , 66% , Iowa State
5 , 87% , 92% , W&M
5 , 86% , 91% , Boston Coll
5 , 70% , 75% , Clemson
5 , 58% , 63% , U Alabama
5 , 63% , 68% , U of the Pacific
5 , 60% , 65% , U Mass
5 , 65% , 70% , Loyola U (Chi)
5 , 55% , 60% , Washington State
4 , 94% , 98% , Harvard
4 , 92% , 96% , Notre Dame
4 , 85% , 89% , UC Berkeley
4 , 88% , 92% , U Virginia
4 , 90% , 94% , Georgetown
4 , 83% , 87% , U Michigan
4 , 82% , 86% , Lehigh
4 , 73% , 77% , U Texas
4 , 73% , 77% , U Georgia
4 , 70% , 74% , SMU
4 , 68% , 72% , U Denver
4 , 57% , 61% , U Buffalo
4 , 70% , 74% , Clarkson
4 , 61% , 65% , Colorado State
3 , 90% , 93% , Johns Hopkins
3 , 89% , 92% , Tufts
3 , 85% , 88% , Brandeis
3 , 81% , 84% , UC Santa Barbara
3 , 76% , 79% , U Maryland
3 , 74% , 77% , Texas A&M
3 , 63% , 66% , U Iowa
3 , 71% , 74% , Baylor
3 , 72% , 75% , St. Louis Univ
3 , 60% , 63% , SUNY-Envi Sci/For
3 , 64% , 67% , U Vermont
3 , 67% , 70% , UC Riverside
3 , 56% , 59% , Kansas State
2 , 93% , 95% , Stanford
2 , 92% , 94% , Columbia
2 , 90% , 92% , Cornell
2 , 82% , 84% , U North Carolina
2 , 77% , 79% , U Wisconsin
2 , 77% , 79% , U Florida
2 , 69% , 71% , Clark U
1 , 93% , 94% , Dartmouth
1 , 93% , 94% , Brown
1 , 92% , 93% , Rice
1 , 80% , 81% , UC Davis
1 , 81% , 82% , Rensselaer
1 , 82% , 83% , Yeshiva
1 , 65% , 66% , U Colorado
1 , 61% , 62% , U Nebraska
1 , 62% , 63% , Auburn
1 , 64% , 65% , Northeastern
1 , 62% , 63% , U South Carolina
1 , 70% , 71% , Samford
0 , 96% , 96% , Princeton
0 , 96% , 96% , Yale
0 , 94% , 94% , Duke
0 , 93% , 93% , Northwestern
0 , 89% , 89% , Vanderbilt
0 , 86% , 86% , UCSD
0 , 79% , 79% , UC Irvine
0 , 73% , 73% , U Miami
0 , 69% , 69% , U Missouri
0 , 59% , 59% , SUNY-Stony Brook
-1 , 95% , 94% , U Penn
-1 , 85% , 84% , USC
-1 , 89% , 88% , Wake Forest
-1 , 85% , 84% , NYU
-1 , 80% , 79% , Pepperdine
-1 , 80% , 79% , George Washington
-1 , 72% , 71% , BYU
-1 , 71% , 70% , NC State
-1 , 76% , 75% , U San Diego
-1 , 57% , 56% , Arizona State
-2 , 95% , 93% , MIT
-2 , 92% , 90% , U Chicago
-2 , 82% , 80% , U Rochester
-2 , 83% , 81% , Boston University
-2 , 73% , 71% , American U
-2 , 62% , 60% , U Tennessee
-2 , 61% , 59% , U Arizona
-2 , 70% , 68% , Texas Christian
-2 , 61% , 59% , U Kentucky
-3 , 94% , 91% , Wash U
-3 , 89% , 86% , Carnegie Mellon
-3 , 78% , 75% , Worcester
-3 , 71% , 68% , Florida State
-3 , 71% , 68% , Catholic U
-3 , 60% , 57% , NJ Tech
-5 , 94% , 89% , Caltech
-5 , 64% , 59% , U Oklahoma
-5 , 66% , 61% , Michigan Tech
-6 , 83% , 77% , Georgia Tech
-6 , 67% , 61% , U Minnesota
-6 , 65% , 59% , U Kansas
-6 , 66% , 60% , Drexel
-7 , 94% , 87% , Emory
-7 , 80% , 73% , Stevens Institute
-7 , 63% , 56% , U Arkansas
-8 , 77% , 69% , Colorado Sch of Mines
-8 , 71% , 63% , U Missouri (Rolla)
-9 , 79% , 70% , UC Santa Cruz
-10 , 88% , 78% , Case Western
-10 , 81% , 71% , Tulane
-10 , 79% , 69% , Illinois Tech
-13 , 74% , 61% , U Tulsa</p>

6

<p>and for the LACs</p>

<p>Differential , Expected Graduation Rate , Actual Graduation Rate , School</p>

<p>18 , 55% , 73% , VMI
18 , 61% , 79% , Spelman
10 , 76% , 86% , Muhlenberg
9 , 76% , 85% , US Military Acad
8 , 79% , 87% , US Naval Acad
8 , 84% , 92% , Holy Cross
8 , 68% , 76% , St. Lawrence
7 , 75% , 82% , Occidental
7 , 79% , 86% , Union
6 , 82% , 88% , Hamilton
6 , 84% , 90% , Lafayette
6 , 74% , 80% , Skidmore
6 , 79% , 85% , St. Olaf
6 , 68% , 74% , Hobart & Will Smith
5 , 88% , 93% , Wellesley
5 , 85% , 90% , Bates
5 , 84% , 89% , Bucknell
5 , 71% , 76% , Pitzer
4 , 92% , 96% , Amherst
4 , 86% , 90% , Grinnell
4 , 87% , 91% , Vassar
4 , 81% , 85% , Smith
4 , 80% , 84% , Colorado College
4 , 77% , 81% , DePauw
4 , 85% , 89% , Wheaton (IL)
3 , 90% , 93% , Carleton
3 , 86% , 89% , Colgate
3 , 80% , 83% , Mt. Holyoke
3 , 85% , 88% , Kenyon
3 , 83% , 86% , Connecticut Coll
3 , 77% , 80% , Gettysburg
3 , 72% , 75% , Wheaton
2 , 92% , 94% , Middlebury
2 , 92% , 94% , Haverford
2 , 88% , 90% , Wesleyan
2 , 81% , 83% , Trinity (CT)
2 , 80% , 82% , Dickinson
2 , 77% , 79% , Wofford
2 , 76% , 78% , Ursinus
1 , 91% , 92% , Bowdoin
1 , 85% , 86% , Furman
1 , 87% , 88% , Whitman
1 , 80% , 81% , Centre
1 , 78% , 79% , Lawrence
1 , 76% , 77% , Williamette
0 , 96% , 96% , Williams
0 , 94% , 94% , Pomona
0 , 91% , 91% , Davidson
0 , 85% , 85% , Oberlin
0 , 77% , 77% , Sewanee
0 , 80% , 80% , Illinois Wes
0 , 70% , 70% , Earlham
0 , 73% , 73% , Coll of Wooster
-1 , 88% , 87% , Colby
-1 , 88% , 87% , Barnard
-1 , 77% , 76% , Drew
-2 , 87% , 85% , Macalester
-2 , 74% , 72% , Wabash
-3 , 95% , 92% , Swarthmore
-3 , 84% , 81% , F&M
-3 , 79% , 76% , Denison
-4 , 92% , 88% , Claremont McK
-4 , 87% , 83% , U Richmond
-4 , 82% , 78% , Kalamazoo
-4 , 76% , 72% , Beloit
-6 , 92% , 86% , W&L
-6 , 84% , 78% , Rhodes
-7 , 85% , 78% , Bryn Mawr
-8 , 81% , 73% , Scripps
-8 , 82% , 74% , Bard
-9 , 82% , 73% , Southwestern
-9 , 76% , 67% , Agnes Scott
-10 , 85% , 75% , Reed
-11 , 96% , 85% , Harvey Mudd
-11 , 77% , 66% , Hendrix</p>

7

<p>FYI, I think there is a separate formula for calculating these numbers for public and private universities and for LACs.</p>

<p>The Penn State overperformance is really weird. It is so high (22) because the predicted graduation rate for Penn State is so low. The predicted graduation rate is so low because Penn State reported only 37% of their freshman were in the top 10% of their high school class. That just doesn't seem possible for a school with Penn State's SAT scores. Something isn't right with the Penn State data.</p>