Penn 2022 ED Stats/Chances?

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of Pennsylvania
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Just thinking about Decisions coming out next week and wanted to get some perspective as I have a rather unique situation (weird GPA Drop + Disciplinary History) Chance opinions anyone?

SAT I Superscore: 1580 (780R/800M)
SAT II: N/A
UW GPA: 3.7 [3.9+ If you exclude my sophomore year {Sophomore Year Alone: ~3.3} in which I suffered from a severe medically diagnosed concussion which made school extremely difficult for a period of time. (Sophomore year semesters are the only period dragging my GPA down). Counselor discussed this in Rec
GPA Weighted: 4.267
Class Rank: N/A
Awards: National Merit Semifinalist, AP Scholar w/ Honor
Curriculum: 100% Most Rigorous available at my school, 6 Years of Chinese Study

of APs Taken: 12 (Remainder are all Honors Classes where AP is unavailable)

Extracurriculars:
Viola - (10 Years, City-Wide Advanced Philharmonic Symphony, 3 Years Section Leader, Founder of Only Stringed Ensemble/Orchestra at School)

Tennis - (10 Years [4 Years School Team] 3 Years Varsity Singles, 2x State-Qualifier, Previously Ranked USTA Player, Several Local Tournament Championships/Placements, Team Top 3 in State)

Musical Theatre - (7 Years, Summer Camps, Civic Theatre Acting/Musical Theatre Classes, Actor/Crew-member/Volunteer in both Community & School Shows, Multiple leading roles in School Productions)

Model UN - (10, 11, 12; President/Chair of NEW school’s MUN Club, Outstanding Delegate Award, Member of Model UN Leadership Team)

School’s Stringed Ensemble (11 only) - (Leading Violist, Founder/President) cut short by dismissal

Varsity Choir/Vocal Performance - (12, Previously only Did Musical Theatre but a newly discovered passion, Bass In School’s Advanced Exclusive Audition-Only Madrigals Group)

Math Team - (11, 12; Team Captain, State Math Competitions, 2nd Place Individual Event, Team 1st Place Overall)

Dance - (11, 12; Started both Jazz & Formal Ballet training very late and was able to reach Intermediate level of study after only a few months of study. Most of peers have been studying ballet for 3-6 years)

Quiz Bowl - (11, 12; Co-Captain, State-Qualifying Team)

Chinese Club - (9, 10, 11) cut short by dismissal

Work (Host @ Local Restaurant, 10-20 Hours/Week)

Private SAT/ACT Tutor - Some was volunteer work other clients paid me in cash… 5 total students tutored (raised one person’s ACT score 6 points)

Other: Was dismissed from my previous Catholic HS (9-11) in June 2017… The situation involved some minor infractions however the decision was made to dismiss me due to a picture my friend took with the Virgin Mary statue captioned with a Gay Pride sticker… The school found this very upsetting because it was “sacrilegious” but I did not do anything truly malicious or harmful… I wrote a lengthy reflection about this situation apologizing though also notably discussing the fact I felt the school discriminated against me because of my LGBT status (which they did)

Essay(s): 8-10/10 I have pretty good writing skills
Why Penn: Probably like a 9/10, Good specificity
Teach Recs: From teachers at my old school despite the disciplinary action, I think this could potentially very speak well to what I contributed to the school while I was there… Might seem outstanding to an outsider that they were willing to write these despite situation…
Counselor Rec: 10/10 Also from my old counselor at previous school… Had a VERY close relationship with her and definitely speaks about me as a person/personality more so than generic ECs/Grades

Gender: Male
State: MI
Race: White
Income: 150-200k
School Type: Private Catholic (9-11), Rigorous/Highly-Ranked Public (12)
Hooks: (LGBT?)

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Intended Major is PPE with potential Chinese Language study Minor by the way

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You will find out your chance in a few days. Good Luck!

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This is my first response to a chance me lol but something about your post really resonated with me
As lots of other replies to chance posts have mentioned, it’s practically impossible to accurately estimate whether or not someone will get into a selective college like Penn. That being said, I don’t think your stats (GPA, test scores) would keep you from being a legitimate candidate for admission (they look pretty good to me!). As it says on the UPenn website, they’re looking for students who distinguish their applications from others, and it looks like you could very well have done that.
At this point, we’ve done everything we can to put ourselves in the best possible positions for acceptance, and I would encourage you to try not to pysch yourself out by analyzing why you would or wouldn’t be accepted (trust me- that’s something I’m fr struggling with right now) because our best guesses are that at best- guesses. They really can’t reflect what will happen for any of us next week because we don’t know what the schools are looking for or how Penn will respond to the 10% ED applicant increase and the lack of enough spots for every qualified applicant.
Also I go to a Catholic high school, and I’ve realized this year that sometimes private, religious schools really care more about upholding a strict, sanctimonious image than the wellbeing of their students and will even go as far as too falsely malign students (aka children) and force undue consequences on them. I have confidence that Penn won’t take that incident as a reflection of your character.
Good luck this next week, and I hope you get good news on Wednesday!

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bump

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I’m applying to PPE too! I also have similar stats too, so I wish you best of luck!