Here’s a link to the Williams paper about admissions this year. http://communications.williams.edu/news-releases/3_26_2015_admits/
Note that some crucial info is missing. Still, I can tell this much. 47% of the class --targeted to be 550–was filled in the early round. So the acceptance rate in the regular round is a LOT less than the overall acceptance rate.
My offspring’s alma mater is very unlike your S’s high school, but out of curiosity I checked the stats for Williams for the last 5 years (not including this year). The percentage of applicants who applied early and were accepted was literally twice as high as the percentage accepted RD.
Williams is sports heavy. 44% of Ephs play a sport. Over one-third are on varsity teams. http://communications.williams.edu/media-relations/fast-facts/ So, your S’s focus on sports ECs probably didn’t help him stand out in the applicant pool. If he didn’t express an interest in continuing his sport at Williams that probably hurt too. http://athletics.williams.edu/prospective-students/
His SAT scores put him almost exactly at the median for accepted students. I suspect that it means that they put him in the bottom third of middle class white applicants–assuming he is one. That didn’t help either.
He seems to be aiming for a math major. Williams is known as one of the strongest LACs for math. It’s a very common major there. http://communications.williams.edu/media-relations/fast-facts/ That isn’t going to help him stand out in the applicant pool either. Maybe he did have an AIME score, but you haven’t listed one and a lot of applicants to Williams will. They will also have AP scores in AB or BC calculus and have participated in things like USAMTS or math contests like ARML. Maybe your S has as well…I don’t know. I am ONLY saying it’s hard to stand out for your math skills in the Williams applicant pool and these sorts of things help.
I know your S is hurting, But, posting the same thing for the gazillionth time…
Admissions to LACs in particular is a lot like casting a high school musical. The director doesn’t just pick the 25 most talented singers, dancers and actors and make them the cast. Instead, they audition students for a particular role. At most high schools, more females than males want to be in the musical, so it’s quite possible that a boy who is less talented that a particular girl will get a part while she doesn’t.
Then the director has to take into account vocal range–so many sopranos, altos, bass voices, etc. Again, if the show is Guys and Dolls, you need a bass voice. Odds are there will only be a few bass voices who audtion. Meanwhile, there will be a ton of altos…It will be much harder to get a part for them.
As a regular round applicant with a focus on math and with sports as his principal EC, your S was competing within one of the most competitive categories at a highly competitive school. I know it hurts, but that’s what the problem was. And it’s quite possible that your S is actually more talented mathematically than some of the students Williams admitted. He may simply have been at a disadvantage because he didn’t compete in math contests or take some of the national exams.
You might want to read the thread about kids overestimating the odds they will be admitted to a top college.
Carleton is an excellent college. Believe it or not, a fair number of kids from my NYC neighborhood have gone there and they all seem to have enjoyed it.