@starjoy8 You’re anecdotal example of yourself - one instance - can’t really be extrapolated to pinpoint Grinnell as a safety for the OP. I’m sure I could find examples here on CC of students with similar stats who were rejected. Safeties, by definition, insure a high likelihood of acceptance. With sub-20% acceptance rates and holisitic admissions, I think it is bold to consider either Grinnell or Kenyon as safety schools. Perhaps they can be matches, but not safeties, IMO.
@dla26 Welcome! This is a very exciting time and you’ve come to a great place to get good information. I also recommend that you join the Parents of 2019 thread. I am not on it (my D just graduated) but the corresponding 2017 thread was a wealth of information and support.
I’m chiming in because my D favored LACs in her college admission process. Assuming that your D has a 3.8 UW by the end of junior year and somewhere between a 1400-1500 on the SAT, she will have a good chance at most LACs below the tippy top (say below 20 ranking on USNWR). It is possible that she’d get in to higher ranked schools but they are much less predictable. As others have said upthread, any place with a less than 20% acceptance rate is not a sure thing for anybody.
If she does fall in love with a particular school that is a good fit and is affordable, you might consider ED (binding early decision) to boost chances.
My advice is to identify at least a couple of LACs that she genuinely likes that are less competitive for admission as safeties/matches. The Colleges that Change Lives group might be a good place to start - ctcl.org While your D may get into her top choices, there should be at least one school that is more predictable from an admissions standpoint but that doesn’t feel like settling or a consolation prize.
Off the top of my head, LACs where she would stand a good chance of admission and possibly merit scholarships would be Muhlenberg and Dickinson ¶ or Denison and College of Wooster (OH) or St. Olaf (MN). Moving up a notch would be Kenyon, Macalester, Grinnell, Oberlin, and Bates (all but Bates offer merit scholarships). A bit higher than that would be Carleton, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Hamilton, Vassar (no merit). And so on.
Good luck!