Post vax life? I remember that - it was back in May and June, right?
I don’t mask up when exercising outdoors or if socializing outdoors with small groups of people who are entirely vaccinated. However, I never stopped wearing a mask in indoor public places (I get funny looks, but not hostility or extreme eye rolling as was the case a year ago). No indoor dining and outdoor dining only once or twice earlier in the summer. Since the CDC reversal, my workplace has imposed both a mask and a vaccine mandate. Many of my colleagues have little kids. I got the vaccine as soon as it was available and I will mask up to protect them and to do my part to prevent another round of lockdowns.
I’d love to go to the theater, or have a nice relaxed meal indoors with friends, or be able to pick out my own produce, or be able to get on public transportation without worrying. I have no idea when that might happen and that’s mightily depressing. And yet, I am also very grateful for the protection the vaccines do provide. And really happy that my kid will be attending a college where the campus vaccination rate is above 95%
I have a friend who lives in the UK, and comes here every six months. We have met outdoors the last four times she has been here. I saw her today…we sort of were wishing for a post vax life when she visits in February. We aren’t holding our breaths.
H and I had to see our new doctor today. Upon entering the building, the first thing we saw was a note on another doctor’s door stating that masks are now optional in his office. It was a relief to see that our doctor still has a “masks required” sign. I mentioned this to the receptionist who rolled her eyes and said the other doctor has been “something else” (not exactly a joy.) She and the nurse at the desk said they appreciated our positive comments about mask wearing since they catch a lot of flack from others who don’t agree.
We’re in a very low vax rate area with a lot of loudly vocal people who get quite upset about other people wearing masks. I just ordered another box of N95 masks, but plan to continue avoiding the need for them.
We enjoyed the fresh produce this summer when H felt comfortable making a quick (masked) run into Publix for <10 items, but are going back to only curbside pickup. I’m hoping for a booster in the fall, after the immunocompromised folks have a chance to get theirs. After that I may loosen up again. We’ll see.
No, I was just speaking to my perception of the current situation in my area, and how it doesn’t match some of the old pre-Delta statistical numbers that are still being circulated. Various vaxxed acquaintances diagnosed, and a micro-Provincetown situation. But I did look up official numbers:
320,000 population
1000 breakthroughs in July/Aug (30% of total infections)
67% of age 12+ vaxxed
58% of total pop vaxxed
~40 vaxxed, ~145 unvaxxed hospitalizations in July/Aug
I would love to see more hospitals listing their daily numbers like Tidelands does. That would give up to date real data and we’d soon find out if vax hospitalizations (or lack thereof comparatively) there are the norm or an outlier.
If it’s the norm, news like that - real numbers - might encourage more to get vaxed.
Unfortunately, the hard core of anti-vaccine anti-mask anti-any-COVID-19-mitigation people will not be convinced by anything other than getting a serious case of COVID-19 or seeing someone close to them get a serious case of COVID-19. Trying to force them into anything “for their own good” is only going to make them fight harder.
Yes, they are still a threat to others, but a much smaller threat than they were before vaccines were available, so the main threat is to themselves.
At least the first of these is rather questionable. Remember that guidance has been that testing is not required for close contact if you are vaccinated unless you are symptomatic. That alone will make vaccinated (but possibly infected) asymptomatic people less likely to test and therefore be identified. And if the effects are milder for vaccinated people, there may be a higher proportion of asymptomatic infections in that group.
Only if you do random testing of the population are you likely to get good data on the relative likelihood of infection (symptomatic or otherwise) for vaccinated and unvaccinated people. And even then, if vaccinated people tend to be more cautious, that relative likelihood is not the same as measuring the effectiveness of the vaccine itself, since behavior affects the likelihood of exposure.
Some doctors/studies now appear to suggest perhaps 50-60% effectiveness of Pfizer against (mild) symptomatic cases, and perhaps less against any type of infection:
In May-early July, we started feeling relaxed about our post-vax life. Our state had fewer than 40 new COVID cases per day (7 million population). We had begun dining out again and going maskless in public. Since the delta variant took off, post-vax life is feeling more like pre-vax life. Masking up again in supermarket, etc. Less afraid since the odds of requiring hospitalization are very very low, but becoming more wary again.
Our Sept. trip to Canadian Rockies that seemed like a go in mid-July has been cancelled by tour company.
I stopped at a bakery this morning. No customers in the store before I walked in. I masked though because I want to again make this practice what I do in public indoor places - build that routine again for the time being.
I was struck when a grandma walked in with 2 young children maybe 4 and 7. Grandma was not masked. Both kids were. Really these adorable children pulled my heart strings. Someone has told them they have to wear masks to protect themselves. Yet after seeing adults wearing masks as required for several months, they now see adults taking the liberty to unmask.
Unvaccinated adults aside, how can we not send the message to those under vaccination age that they are important and we care AND we will mask for them and with them? What do those little brains think when they are told they must mask (their parents choice for them) but we do not?
Here is Eric Topol on 7/31. Quick change or apples and oranges? This is for hospitalization and the tweet posted by @Twoin18 was about symptomatic infection rate (edited).
Let’s do a little math about Delta breakthrough infections: If 10% of fully vaccinated people got them, and we apply 1.2% getting hospitalized (Provincetown data, perhaps worst case scenario, superspreader event) Then 99.88% of vaccinated would be protected from hospitalizations
Yes, thank you for being the number ninja. The 80% number seems in line with other stats, which always point toward a significant protective effect of the vaccine against hospitalization.
I like other representations, also, but I’ve only read it in one place in my newsfeed. Going from memory, but something like…of those hospitalized, vaxxed average a 2-day stay, and unvaxxed average 7 days (Broward County?). Further evidence of the vaccine’s protective effect.
The 69% number is the one that I still struggle with. I understand how and why it is calculated this way, but @Twoin18 probably said it best about the usefulness of this number, that the “behavior affects the likelihood of exposure.”
My personal example of the micro-Provincetown situation I mentioned in a prior post… 12 fully vaxxed gathered in a house. Patient zero is pre-symptomatic (I wouldn’t rule out mildly symptomatic) at the gathering. Patient zero later tests positive, prompting everyone else to get tested. 8 of the remaining 11 test positive, a mix of asymptomatic and symptomatic.
There are reasons this small situation can’t be compared to the overall city numbers that show 69% effectiveness against infection. (no unvaxxed controls, testing protocol for small group compared to citywide, etc) So to the layman (me), it doesn’t seem possible to have this level of spread with a 69% effectiveness, which gets back to the idea of behavior driving the 69% number.
Getting to the point of this thread, can this microspreader event be reconciled with the 69% number to a point that can help me determine the type of social interaction I am comfortable with in the current circumstances?
It didn’t upset me. The moment struck me. The kids ARE vulnerable. They are not choosing to be unvaccinated, they can’t be. Mask wearing for vaccinated is not required now largely but is very largely recommended. Especially in a public place. How does it look to those young eyes that adults choose to not do their part to protect spreading the virus to them (the child)?
I am vaccinated but I can still spread virus.
And yep, if I was their Grandma I’d be wearing my mask with them. Less chance of me picking up the virus to carry it to them.
I think the grandmother is teaching the grandchildren that they should follow rules. I don’t think the 4 and 7 year old are having any thoughts about grandma potentially spreading the virus.
Welp, we think differently. I think the grandmother should teach the meaning of “highly recommended”. Especially in concerns related to health and well being.
I’m seeing a lot of excessive panic at the moment. I saw a tweet from a Texas doctor today (retweeted by a serious journalist but since deleted), claiming that with 4M unvaccinated children in Texas, there could be “20,000 dead babies” at a 0.05% fatality rate. Not only is that bad math (too high by a factor of 10), but the fatality rate is plucked out of thin air and for that age group is an order of magnitude higher than the actual figure.
Yes we don’t know the true rate of less serious consequences, and there’s reason to be cautious, but there’s no need for panic. For example it’s entirely reasonable to believe that kids will suffer more seriously from being kept out of school than they will from potential exposure to Covid in school.
