^ As I said, this is not Payscale (the company) data! This is US Govt treasury data and unless you are telling me that only UChicago students disproportionately obtain graduate degrees (not borne out by the facts published by Washington Monthly, at least Caltech, MIT, Princeton do better and Georgia Tech is in the top 20 in its field) and other publications, every school would have these kinds of students, so in the grand scheme of things they even out for most schools, specially the elite schools like HYPS and many many more.
Your sister’s case is also not exclusive to any one school, that it would overly bias the statistics at one school over another. I think Uchicago is a fantastic school, but I strongly dispute your assertion that “such income outcomes are more likely at intellectual power houses like the University of Chicago” Many many students from state schools follow the path of your sister. Even students from other elite schools follow the same path, so the data from these schools would also be subject to the same “depression” as the school your sister went to. Again this is not “self selective” data that is reported by “Payscale”, the company. It is required data that these students receiving federal grants have to submit to the US treasury, so there is no self selection bias in the data either.
And I would argue that pay data is a profoundly important indicator (although should not by any means be the only one) in judging the schools.
For example, why would a student in the top 25% of earners at Harvard earn 40% more than a student in the top 25% of earners at Columbia 10 years after enrolling? Are you somehow saying that the students at Columbia pursue more graduate degrees and take more time off work than Harvard students (Again not borne out in the data collected by other publications). In every bucket, Harvard kids are doing better than Columbia kids, whether it is the 10th percentile or 90% percentile. Whether it is 10 years after enrollment or whether it is 6 years after enrollment. And most of these kids stay in the Northeast after graduation, so it is clearly not a geographical discrepancy.
Again I am not claiming that you should only evaluate schools based on pay. There is much more to college than pay outcomes. But you would be foolish not to look at the data.
To get back to the OP’s question on prestige, what I am saying is that it is better to to go to a “so called mediocre” school and perform better, than go to an elite school and be average. Prestige does not shower success on all the alums of a prestigious school. Lots of kids who go to these prestigious schools don’t have good outcomes.
So the real question should be
Will I get a good education at the school?
Will I be able to thrive at the school?