<p>So much angst and so many snide comments, especially from our “new member” (and including a few from those with Princeton connections who should know better).</p>
<p>I will bet that the final entering class next September will number about 1,320 students (just like last year) and Princeton’s yield will end up about 2% lower than it was last year. I had previously guessed a 1% drop in yield before seeing the waitlist numbers.</p>
<p>Within the Ivy League, there is really no good benchmark against which to compare these changes. The only other Ivy that doesn’t have an early program is Harvard. All other schools use a binding early decision program (typically thought to result in about an 8% to 10% increase in overall matriculation rate) with the exception of Yale which uses a single choice early action program (typically thought to result in about a 4% to 6% increase in overall matriculation rate depending on how aggressively it’s used). </p>
<p>This year, Stanford saw a rise in its matriculation rate. Harvard’s will drop by a fraction. Princeton’s will drop about 2% and Yale’s looks as though it will drop about 1.5%. The first year that Harvard and Princeton dropped their early programs, the yield for each dropped. Harvard’s yield declined only about 2.5% after dropping its early action program. Princeton’s yield declined about 9% after dropping early decision. The second year after dropping their early programs both schools saw a slight rise in their yield rates. Three years later they’ve both declined again a bit. For now, there doesn’t appear to be any trend one way or the other. </p>
<p>Yale’s situation is a little different. Yale kept its single choice early action program when Harvard and Princeton dropped theirs. That first year it saw a surge in SCEA applicants as students had fewer options. The second year there was a modest rise in early applicants but this year there was a 5% drop and overall, a slight decline in the total number of applicants from the previous year. Yale’s yield has dropped between 1% and 1.5% each of the last five years. I think it’s too early to know if this is a trend. This year, a little over 60% of the members of the Class of 2014 will have come from the SCEA pool. This assumes that the SCEA deferred students were accepted at the same rate as the other members of the regular action pool. (Typically, they have been accepted at a higher rate. If that is true this year, then the percentage of the final class from the SCEA pool may be closer to two-thirds.)</p>
<p>Stanford’s situation is even more difficult to analyze. Similar to Yale, Stanford has a restrictive early action program though it doesn’t use its program as aggressively as does Yale. The other significant factor for Stanford is the existence of athletic scholarships. Upper middle class students who don’t qualify for aid at Harvard, Princeton or Yale can still get very generous scholarships from Stanford if they are among the athletically elite. About 300 of Stanford’s undergraduates receive athletic scholarships ( a little under 20% of each class). Many of these might qualify for aid at Stanford’s peers (based on need) but many would not. Stanford’s yield is up this year but over the past five years doesn’t appear to show a strong trend.</p>
<p>The following lists show the comparable yield numbers at each of these schools for the last five years. The only accurate comparison is to take the figures reported in the Common Data Set for each school. The CDS forms don’t appear until the early fall so the percentages for 2010 are calculated estimates.</p>
<p>Harvard</p>
<p>2006 79.2
2007 78.7
2008 76.2 - first non-EA year
2009 76.5
2010 76.3 (estimate)</p>
<p>Princeton</p>
<p>2005 68.1
2006 68.6
2007 67.7
2008 58.6 - first non-EA year
2009 59.8
2010 57.8 (estimate)</p>
<p>Yale</p>
<p>2005 70.3%
2006 70.0%
2007 69.1%
2008 67.6%
2009 66.8%
2010 65.4% (estimate)</p>
<p>Stanford</p>
<p>2005 67.4%
2006 69.9%
2007 69.9%
2008 71.0%
2009 69.8%
2010 72.5% (estimate)</p>
<p>Changes from year to year are always relatively small. Still, while the final analysis hasn’t been completed, it appears that the Class of 2014 may be the strongest academically and the most diverse that Princeton has ever had. Apparently, some of this information has already been given to members of the Princeton Schools Committee who interview applicants and who have shared it with me. By all standard measures, the incoming class is amazing. I doubt that the drop in yield is going to be of concern when the strength of the Class of 2014 has actually increased. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the students deciding not to matriculate in the last few years do not seem to have come overwhelmingly from the academically strongest group. If Princeton’s reputation for tougher grading than some of its peers is deterring some students from matriculating, it appears that the effect is greatest on those who were among the weaker academically. The result has actually been a skewing of entering classes toward the academcically stronger students. The Class of 2014 will also be more ethnically diverse than any previous Princeton class.</p>
<p>While I’ve not been able to learn anything yet about this year’s cross-admit statistics, I doubt they have changed much either. Princeton continues to lose to Harvard, splits evenly with Yale and has a very slight advantage over Stanford and MIT. I know from personal conversations with individuals in leadership positions at Princeton that this has been true for years though I don’t know anything specific about this year.</p>