"Private Colleges Worry About a Dip in Enrollment" (New York Times)

<p>A good place to start that study (post #59) would be with Davidson. 66% full pay year after year in spite of being "need blind", and with a purported 98% of students having need fully met?
Hmmm....</p>

<p>Question:</p>

<p>So for CA especially, I am guessing UCs will be a lot harder to get into. Cal States a bit harder to get into. Privates easier to get into. Would it be easier to get accepted to Santa Clara, USD, Pepperdine, Redlands, Chapman, etc...</p>

<p>most small colleges have invested heavily in new dorms, dining
centers etc. they are going to need to fill the seats and if
you have to heat the buildings, prepare food etc many of the
costs are fixed. You lower your standards a little, bring in more
full payers especially ED and then discount like crazy to fill
the places. At the better schools the effects will be minimum.
Prestige will still sell but as you go down the line, say Gettysburg,
Depauw, Dickinson, Skidmore territory they are going to have
to make some adjustments. The question many colleges will
have to answer is how far do we lower standards? and how
many low income payers do we want to attract? The number
of RD apps will no doubt impact those decisions. Many colleges
would rather take a low income student bringing with him/her
5 grand in pell/seog, 5 grand in parental/student money, 10
grand in loans and work study. Filling the seats with 20 grand
a year payers is not that bad. Essentially, at the lower end
of the first tier, there is a sliding scale pricing in effect. Weak
wealthy apps, pay top dollar close to 50 grand a year and
very good low income apps pay about 20 grand. If worst comes
to worst they can always fill the seats by lowering the standards
and accepting more low payers. A temporary fix until the economy
rebounds. </p>

<p>The problem with the current economic crisis is that no-one
knows how long it will last, how deep it goes and how many
years it will be before colleges can expect decent returns on
their endowments. Combine that uncertainty with various
gov proposals to cut or streamline pell grant money/perkins
loans etc and you have a very unstable situation.</p>

<p>The other problems for these colleges is that they have
reached the limits of pricing. They run the risk of losing
customers at both ends of the spectrum. 50 grand is a
lot of money and 35 to 40 grand in loans for low incomes
is a lot of loans. Students at both ends of the scale are
balking. With the bubble ready to burst, full payers are
flooding the states especially the lower level states like
West Chester u, and low payers are either staying home,
commuting or going technical or joining the work force.</p>

<p>the best course of action for these colleges is to
maintain current pricing, cut costs and do whatever
it takes to fill the seats. For some less and less well
funded lacs this is a matter of survival.</p>

<p>LSKaiWalk:</p>

<p>"Applicants flood University of the Pacific"
Applications at Univ of the Pacific are up 100% this year</p>

<p>Recordnet.com:</a> Applicants flood University of the Pacific</p>

<p>"San Jose State receives fewer applications for next fall, overcrowding unlikely"
Applications at Cal State San Jose are down</p>

<p><a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_11292256%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_11292256&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Maybe the California upcoming budget cuts have "tainted" UC and Cal State as at risk for being in decline?</p>

<p>oh, so UCs and Cal States will be more competitive as their will be less seats, and still the best option for mid - low class.</p>

<p>the privates will get more competitive because of the UC and Cal states being more competitve, however the price will drive away many applicants making it about the same as normal?? or even harder to get into??</p>

<p>Or maybe San Jose State got fewer applications because they moved the application deadline from February 1 to November 30 in order to limit the number of applicants, and not because CSUs are "tainted."</p>

<p>"So for CA especially, I am guessing UCs will be a lot harder to get into. Cal States a bit harder to get into. Privates easier to get into. Would it be easier to get accepted to Santa Clara, USD, Pepperdine, Redlands, Chapman, etc..."</p>

<p>That's how I see it, except that CSUs should also be a lot harder to get into. Community colleges will be impacted if that is the case.</p>

<p>USD is no more selective than San Diego State yet tuition is above $35K per year. That's a lot to pay for private school customer service, especially when USD can't offer anywhere near the breadth of subjects offered at SDSU.</p>

<p>I think it would take really awful grades and test scores to make the private schools you mentioned pass up $200K for four years.</p>

<p>Yeah your right, so that sucks for me. Either I get into a low end UC or a not too good Cal State, or I go to a private and pay a ton, or a lower tier private and get a scholership.</p>

<p>The CSUs are very good if you make the right choices. Without the handholding guidance that the privates offer it is more of a self-service deal. Go to your local CSU and spend some of that money you'll be saving to hire your own private guidance counselor. It shouldn't cost more than a few hundred bucks a year versus the tens of thousands in savings.</p>

<p>I have been thinking about the downturn in the economy and how it affects schools. From what I have read and see in Maryland and in California, here are the beginning trends:</p>

<ol>
<li>State schools are getting a deluge of applications. Admission standards seems to be rising exponentially. In addition, due to budget shortfalls in states, state funding has dropped. This results in fewer slots for admission ( which means higher quality kids being admitted),but also cuts in some less profitable programs. Consequently, there probably will be fewer programs and/or program cuts at state universities,which means lower academic standards... </li>
</ol>

<p>There might also result, as a consequence, more kids from richer backgrounds will seek the better private schools due to the declining academic environment at state schools. Thus, state schools will become less diversified from an economic standpoint.</p>

<ol>
<li><p>You will probably also see more fees and higher tuition due to the drop in state funding and increasing demand for slots.</p></li>
<li><p>Private schools, other than the top tier, may see a decrease in applications. However, with fewer slots available in state schools, many kids many not have a choice. What I envision is an increase in applications for junior colleges in order to both save money and transfer into their state university.</p></li>
<li><p>Private schools, will have less money for aid due to both endowment drops and less charitable gifts from alumni. Thus, richer students will be admitted to the lessor tier private schools.This will become particularly acute if the economy worsens. The second consequence of this is that there will be a lot less aid available especially from private schools, although I see less aid from state schools too due to increased demand for admission. </p></li>
<li><p>Most private schools, especially top tier schools, will increase their admission of candidate from private high schools. I met a trustee from Yale during the economic downturn that occurred several years ago. She noted, at that time, that Yale and other top flight institutions were increasing their admission from private high schools under the feeling that these kids' parents could afford the tuition. Yes, schools might be need blind in admission,but, if the kids don't have the need, there won't be any need for discounting!</p></li>
</ol>

<p>I suspect that the same thing will occur today. More kids from private high schools will be given a "leg up" on admission to most private schools even the top tier schools.</p>

<p>Bottom line: if you are a kid from a well-to-do household who is attending a private high school, you will probably have access to some schools that you wouldn't have had even a year ago. State schools will get increasingly difficult for most kids. All schools,but especially state universities, will probably cut programs and offerings available. Finally, aid from most schools will probably be diminished. This may not apply to schools with huge endowments such as Harvard, Yale, Princeton and a few others,but it probably will be true for 98% of the rest of the colleges.</p>

<p>taxguy, from one Marylander to another, your post was too depressing for Christmas Eve Eve. ;) Now I need an egg nog.</p>

<p>But, I think you've hit the nail on the head, unfortunately. In our family's situation, son can't find an in-state fit (St. Mary's comes close), and we appear to be full-pay for all OOS and privates. </p>

<p>As much as I hate to admit it, we might find it necessary to apply to more schools than originally planned as a way to shop around on price. A complete reversal of our thinking from 6 months ago. :(</p>

<p>USD does give generous $17,500 annual MERIT scholarships with no need strings attached and has a full HONORS program.</p>

<p>There are many parents like DOug. I read an article a while back saying the acceptance rates for many colleges have dropped b/c kids now apply on the avg of 10, compared to 5 only 5 yrs ago. The universities have limited number of seats and thus, the rate is dropping. UMDCP has dropped by @15% in acceptance since 2006. UVA and UNCCH has also dropped by at least that %. </p>

<p>DS is at UMDCP, in the Scholars program and only rec. 8K. He was accepted to UMiami and was given 88K. UMiami had 21K applicants for 2K slots. UMDCP had 28K applicants for 4K slots.</p>

<p>Schools in the LAC field maybe getting less applicants, but it seems state schools are picking up the slack.</p>

<p>There are many kids that are willing to go to the best school they can keeping in mind the FA packet they receive.</p>

<p>Taxguy, I feel sure you are right that private-school kids from well-to-families will be able to shoot higher this year than in previous years. But I'm equally sure that privates won't discriminate on the basis of school venue :) Well-to-do public schoolers will also be welcomed into those schools.</p>

<p>To be honest the only thing really gets my goat is the endowments many of these colleges have, but yet justify the cost. Harvard had b4 the crash this yr 34 Billion and 1 Billion in cap gains from their investments. That is insane.</p>

<p>That and the fact that after paying over 125K for 4 yrs, as an OOS parent at UMD they still charge us for the diploma....C'MON couldn't they at least find the 100 bucks to gift that to us? :eek:</p>

<p>Dougbetsy, yes, University of Maryland doens't have the same huge programs choices as most of the larger state schools found in Ohio or Maryland. In addition, the academic common market with southern schools is a joke. I wouldn't want to send my kid to most of these places such as Tulsa state etc. Thus, for many majors we are forced to send our kids out of state due to no fault of our own. Sorry to depress you. Take some additional egg nog for me too.</p>

<p>Cardinal Fang notes,"But I'm equally sure that privates won't discriminate on the basis of school venue Well-to-do public schoolers will also be welcomed into those schools.'</p>

<p>Response: it is already occuring Cardinal. Don't believe me? Just check the admission stats at many of the top private high schools. They get an UNBELIEVABLY high percentage of their kids into top ivys and other top privates. I know of very few public schools that can boast the same statistics with the exception of schools like Thomas Jefferson. Don't forget: when a kid applies from a public school, many top private colleges don't know if this kid comes from rich parents. However, private school kids probably do meet this criterion.</p>

<p>tax guy</p>

<p>probably right on access for wealthier apps, and
the state college situation.... but for the lower
level LACs too early to tell. They may be forced
"out of the box" if they want to survive.</p>

<p>Schools aren't dumb. They look to see whether the student asked for aid and where the parents work. They know zip codes too.</p>

<p>Living in the TJ area, it is no longer ranked among Public high schools b/c you must compete to get in. For many yrs it was always ranked in the top nationally among many news sources, but it was eventually removed b/c it is a magnet. Just b/c your backyard bumps up to the school doesn't mean you can go there.</p>

<p>AS far as most LACs...again the endowments that they have are unreal...they will have to be just like normal americans and dip into their mutual fund to pay for some of the FA. However, the difference for them and many of us, is we are dipping into the acct, they are just using the cap gains.</p>

<p>Gotta disagree with those claiming that California publics will be that much more competitive due to the economy and/or state budget. First, the state is still growing, so this year's high school class is the biggest in history, so by definition, admission to CSU or UC will be more competitive. The state budget will be papered over like it always is -- but, in any event, that 10k number everyone floats around is on the margin, kids who are still enrolled after six years, kids/adults who return for a second bachelor's degree, and the like. Third, you are virtually guaranteed a spot at your local Cal State if you apply on time and meet the minimum requirements. That cutback of the '10k' students will hit in the spring when some campuses will no longer accept the applications that they have in the past. [Even tho the CSU app deadline has been Nov 30 for almost forever, individual, unpopular campuses continue to accept apps until they are full, which sometims is day 1 of fall class.] TWhile the CSU cutback will likely impact those kids that want to attend the most popular CSU's, such as San Luis Obispo and SDSU, CSU will still give an applicant a slot at their neighborhood campus. Fourth, UC Merced will take any breathing student with a 3.0+ and minimal test scores.</p>

<p>So no, taxguy, academic standards are NOT increasing in California. Inded, the Univ of California has proposed a significant lowering of academic standards. Cuttig programs? Not in the near terms, academe just can't move that fast; plus, what do you do with tenured faculty in that department? But, will fees/tuition go up, absolutely.</p>

<p>btw: I gotta ask: what is wrong with Maryland-CP? I always thought it to be a fine public. Sure, it is prestige-challenged relative to its two public neighbors to the south (UVa and UNC), but then so is every other public outside of Michigan and California.</p>