<p>Projection</a> Bias in the Car and Housing Markets
Meghan R. Busse, Devin G. Pope, Jaren C. Pope, and Jorge Silva-Risso
Weather clouds people's judgment when it comes to buying cars and homes, according to Projection Bias in the Car and Housing Markets (NBER Working Paper No. 18212). If it's warm or sunny, they're more likely to buy a convertible.</p>
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<p>It is conventional wisdom that students should visit colleges before deciding to attend them, but I suspect the "projection bias" described in this article causes some students to make bad decisions because they overweight their 1-day or few-hour impressions of a college campus.</p>
<p>I have said that, repeatedly, for years. And no one, including my kids, has ever taken it seriously. Visiting gives you a bunch of really vivid, random information that may or may not help you infer anything accurate about the college.</p>
<p>Haven’t read the article yet, but imagine there is definitely this kind of bias.</p>
<p>Don’t you think colleges are viewed more favorably when the weather is nicer? Last week we visited a college, and the weather was perfect and the trees were in prime fall colors. It was hard not to like it. But, I’ll bet the experience would have been completely different a few days later when a tornado was sighted in the area and there were thunderstorms!</p>
<p>I have to agree. I looked at college in Rochester, NY in early August when it was 95 degrees and it clicked. They told me Rochester had two seasons, “winter and the 4th of July” but I survived the 4 years of record snowfall. Had I visited in February it might have been different.
I took my sons to look at colleges in Boston during President’s weekend. Day 1 was record warmth and sunny and they really liked the school. Cold front came through for day two and tour was a wind tunnel and 30 degrees with pelting rain. Not so favorable view of college #2…Could have flipped the tour dates and might have had different reactions…I think there’s something to it…</p>
<p>Forget weather. The personality and clothing tastes of the tour guide. How many people are in the library. What’s happening that night. Does your host smoke dope. Does your host not smoke dope. Do you meet anyone cute.</p>
<p>My daughter refused to apply to one college many people thought was a good match for her because the tour guide seemed un-intellectual and did not know the names of the artists who had created the sculpture littered around the campus. At another college, she refused to step on campus because, as we were getting out of the car, a family that looked like a SNL parody of preppies (the dad was wearing lime green cords and pink Izod shirt, the mom Lilly Pulitzer) were crossing through the college gate. They weren’t even students! But they reinforced her fear that this college was too privileged and preppy.</p>
<p>I agree there may be some bias, but not enough to overcome the overall personality of a school. I “great” school is still going to be great, even in bad weather, and a lousy fit will still not quite click even in the best of weather. While you might predict that visiting during a winter storm would turn you off, you don’t know how you might have experienced that winter storm - perhaps you would have been impressed by what the school did to make your visit comfortable.</p>
<p>I’ve notice with my own D that she sometimes uses little things as the excuse to drop a school from her list, but that little thing was often just the final nail in the coffin.</p>
<p>Yes, weather CAN play a role. My older kids all have adverse experiences, including weather in one situation that colored their feelings about the schools when they should have been taken in perspective. My one son actually ended up at a school with practically the same weather profile as the one he eliminated due to the absolutely miserable day we were there. That "feeling " and “fit” can be affected mightily by factors that are ridiculous. I so regret getting into a “fight” with him on one college tour when we got separated and spent the next few hours trying to get back together. It unfortunately “ruined” the feel of tht school. So, yes, weather and every other little thing can have an effect.</p>
<p>Anything can have an influence, but to some extent, there are so many good schools out there for pretty much any student that it doesn’t matter a whole lot if some are cut for “extraneous” reasons.</p>
<p>We visited previously researched schools with my older two and they are able to see themselves (or not) at the schools. Their experience is likely to be better if they are comfortable with more than just the academics. The research should give one suitable places to consider. The visit can help narrow choices. For us the finances coupled with both of the others made the final decision. My older two are quite happy with their selections. Sure, other schools could have been perfectly fine too, but they only needed one (each).</p>
<p>We did two visits for their final choice schools.</p>
<p>I agree that a beautiful, sun-soaked autumn day with leaves in every color can make most universities appear in their best light, while a rain soaked miserable afternoon doesn’t help the impression. I also agree that sometimes the most inane reasons our students give for cutting a school from the list is code for something larger they just can’t put their finger on. My thought is, so what? There are too many colleges and they can only go to one. The list has to be culled somehow. My S2 refused to do overnights at his top contenders for the very reason that he felt after 2-3 visits to both he had the information he needed and an overnight could possibly leave him in a situation with hosts that didn’t represent who he might align himself with when he attended. How was that supposed to represent a ‘typical night a the U?’. It was a crap-shoot at best. It could unnecessarily sway him to one or the other by luck of the draw on hosts. I think if your student is an athlete and being recruited an overnight with a prospective team member can be worthwhile, otherwise it can do more harm then good.</p>
<p>Is there projection bias in visits? Unquestionably. But that’s really beside the point. Visiting colleges with an eye toward Yea/Nay is valuable in helping students commit to their eventual choice … whatever that choice may be.</p>
<p>I think it’s our job as parents to help them put the experience in perspective. Without a visit, the student’s only sense of what the campus is like comes from glossy mailers sent out by the school. Of course they make the campus look beautiful! They are even more a snapshot than the visit, because the college was able to choose which snapshot to use after the pictures were taken (and can even send different snapshots to different prospective students).</p>
<p>D had an overnight last weekend at Wellesley - 300 prospective students at a college with an enrollment of 2300. 300 extra people to get through the dining hall for dinner and then breakfast the next morning! Needless to say, it did not go as smoothly as it might have. D and her hostess chose to skip long lines for dinner at the main dining hall, and opted for the vegetarian dining hall - which didn’t have much that interested either of them. Then they got up later than planned in the morning, and D skipped breakfast in order to make it to the class she was visiting. (She also didn’t eat much of the bagged lunch the day before, because she didn’t care for the choices - she’s a picky eater). On the one hand, they were overwhelmed, and the dining experience might have been different any other time; but for a picky eater, this was enough to shift them lower on her list, though not off.</p>
<p>I agree with blueiguana, there are enough choices that will all be a good fit. I would rather err on the side of dropping schools - I’ve heard students who regretted the decision to attend, but have yet to hear those who reget dropping a school because of a bad visit. Remember, the schools are already doing their best to make themselves look good. If anything, bad weather or other “little things” help to temper the impact.</p>
<p>Sure, projection bias exists. But I think most kids and parents can overcome it.</p>
<p>My daughter and I visited Cornell on what was probably the hottest day of the summer. The temperature was approaching 100 degrees, with high humidity, and everyone on the campus walking tour was miserable.</p>
<p>My daughter got a good impression of Cornell despite the discomfort. It ended up being her first choice school. She was accepted, had four good years there, and has graduated.</p>
<p>But at the time we visited, I wondered whether she might be the first person in history to refuse to go to Cornell because the weather was too hot!</p>
<p>Way back when, my parents took my brother and me to visit two schools. When we saw the first school (near LI Sound in CT) it was a beautiful day. The sun was shining, it was unseasonably warm and pleasant for early December, the campus was clean and beautiful. When we got to the second school the next day (NE PA city) the weather had changed. It was cold and damp and dreary. There was dirty grey slush all over and icy grey slush at curbside that our car got stuck in, putting my father into a not very nice mood. When we discussed School 2 after we got home, my brother and parents remembered nothing but wet feet, yucky snow and a depressing dreariness. I remembered how friendly the kids seemed, including a group of boys who saw our wheels spinning in the slushy ice at the curb and pushed us out without even being asked. I chose school 2, and the students there proved to be as friendly and wonderful as I found them to be during our visit. I loved my school, and my brother, who chose a different one, was happy at his. Even on the same visit, different people see different things.</p>
<p>D2’s current #1 & #2 are schools where we got soaked during the tours. They were schools she “should” have loved on paper, and the weather didn’t seem to distract her. Distracted her dad though, but he doesn’t have to go there ;)</p>
<p>No question that a beautiful southern campus with azaleas everywhere and kids already in shorts and t-shirts in March influenced my midwestern son. He saw himself studying outside under shady trees and going to parties that could often be held outdoors rather than in a stuffy dorm or apartment. And it has all lived up to his expectations–he could not be happier. He will also be home in the summer when the weather in the south is stifling.</p>
<p>I visited one school and the tour guide totally made fun of my accent. From that moment I wanted nothing to do with the place. I went on to do a masters and PhD and did not apply to this school again. I know in my rational mind that a single person is not representative of the student body. However, if students appointed to sell the school to prospective applicants cannot at least be polite (as opposed to downright rude) for a couple of hours, what are those who are considered not polite enough to do this job like? The whole experience gave me such a bad impression of the place that I will never go near it again.</p>
<p>DD and I visited a school where a lot of misleading information was being handed out at the Information Session. (“Our average class size is 21 students.” True, but the average size of core/required courses was more like 150.) On the way home we dissected that presentation, section by section. It was fabulous preparation for Information Sessions at other schools!</p>
<p>My son was biased against Chicago, so refused to visit in the winter after he got in EA. We saw it in April. It was gorgeous and he agonized till the last possible hour whether or not to attend. My older son visited CMU on a gloomy rainy weekend, and Harvard on a gorgeous sunny one, but still ended up at CMU. (I do think the kids he stayed with at CMU were much more convivial than the Harvard kid, but he found plenty of kids he liked at a sci fi club where he spent most of the weekend.) For my younger son, I know he really, really like the kid he stayed with at American (who had turned down Chicago and Georgetown for scholarship money) and found kids at Chicago a little too serious. I have to say, I don’t think we ever had a terrible tour guide. I hope my kids saw enough different people on campus visits that they didn’t get a bad impression from just one of them.</p>
<p>The one official tour I went on, I purposefully went in the dead of winter because I wanted to see if I could handle the cold. It was a dreary and absolutely frigid day, but I loved it there and would have been happy to go, but ultimately didn’t for reasons that had nothing to do with the tour. And, in hindsight, the tour wasn’t that good-- it was a Saturday morning and almost all the buildings were locked, we saw nothing but the outside area, the cafeteria, the commons area, and a dorm. The school I did attend, I was committed to before I ever saw it and was perfectly happy there. The two were polar opposites in just about every way imaginable. The only school I’ve been to that I really didn’t like had obvious crime and security issues.</p>
<p>I kind of feel like if you are so up-in-the-air that something like a rainy day could affect your impression, perhaps you are applying to too many schools or scheduling visits too early in the process for them to be very productive. Your main impression should not be formed by a tour, one should already have a pretty good idea before they ever see the school, imo. The tour I went on, I already knew I liked the school and that it would be a good fit, I just wanted to make sure there wasn’t anything I missed… like just how cold -20F is :P</p>