Projection Bias from college visits

<p>[Weather to go to College
Uri Simonsohn
University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School
The Economic Journal, Vol. 120, No. 543, pp. 270-280, March 2010](<a href=“http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/~uws/papers/weather_published.pdf”>http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/~uws/papers/weather_published.pdf&lt;/a&gt;)</p>

<p>After arguing and documenting with survey evidence that cloudiness increases the appeal of academic activities, I analyse the enrolment decisions of 1,284 prospective students who visited a university known for its academic strengths and recreational weaknesses. Consistent with the notion that current weather conditions influence decisions about future academic activities, I find that an increase in cloudcover of one standard deviation on the day of the visit is associated with an increase in the probability of enrolment of 9 percentage points.</p>

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<p>According to the study, visiting an academically school on a cloudy day increased the chance of going there, since the bad weather made academic work seem more inviting.</p>