<p>I know that there's really no way of knowing the cutoff scores before they released in September, but do you think I have a chance for making semi-finalist status?</p>
<p>It was 221 for Class of 2012 (CA), so I hope it goes down or stays the same.
Predictions please?</p>
<p>Probably be around a 221 again. I doubt it will rise. If you make it or not, no big deal. It doesn’t seem to play that big of a role in college admissions anyway. Mostly it’ll just get some scholarship money.</p>
<p>Ummm, the opportunity to have college completely paid for is a big, big, BIG, HUGE, GIANT deal to some people… 
(Most??)</p>
<p>lol a 221 wont get your entire college paid for. Some scholarship money, sure, but they don’t pay for your whole college experience as a NMSF.</p>
<p>Au contraire!! Surely you’ve seen all the threads on here about scholarships for NMFs?? OU, A&M, Alabama - many, many more those are just the ones where I know students that have taken advantage. They pay EVERYTHING - in some cases including laptops and a semester abroad. The list of schools that pay for everything for a NMF is very well documented on this site and I believe is pretty long. So, yeah…HUGE deal :D</p>
<p>Here’s the link, you need to check this out if you are in the running:
<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/649276-nmf-scholarships-updated-compilation.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/649276-nmf-scholarships-updated-compilation.html</a></p>
<p>Based on the drop in the percentile ranges this year (2-3 points on the selection index), my guess is that California will drop a point or two. But I think there may be one way to know for near certainty:</p>
<p>According to the NMSC 2009-2010 annual report, 1.25 percent of all California juniors who took the PSAT in 2009 (i.e., 2086 of 166,786) qualified as semi-finalists. Assuming that percentage holds true for 2011 as well, that means the cutoff for California would be somewhere in the upper 98th percentile for the state. </p>
<p>If you look at your printed PSAT score report (not the on line version), you should see a state percentile. I think a 221 is 98th percentile for California for the 2011 test. </p>
<p>Now, if you can find someone who got exactly 222 in your school (or state) and they can tell you that a 222 was 99th percentile for California for the 2011 test, then you would know with near certainty that you made the cutoff for California because a 221 would be the highest selection index score in the 98th percentile range. In other words, in order to reach 1.25% of the top students, the cutoff would have to be at least one (and likely more than 1) point into the 98th percentile range for the state.</p>
<p>So, if anyone got a 222 in California let us know what percentile you got at the state level!</p>
<p>Hey clapuma, this is great info! Can you help me out with TX? I looked up the annual report and for TX last year it was the top 1,303 out of 169,739, so that it should be around the top .76% right? Or basically the top 3/4 of the 99th percentile? D got a 216 but we don’t get the paper sheet til next week so I don’t know her state percentile on her total score yet. BUT, I do know that her state percentages in each area were higher than her national percentages in each area. Soo, would it follow that her state percentile of the total will be higher than her national percentile of the total? According to the 2011 report, for the nation, the 99th percentile starts at 211, so is it fair to assume that the 99th percentile for TX will start even lower? I guess even if you can figure all that out, there’s really no way to figure the top 3/4th of the top 99% is there…? I know I am waaay overthinking this Last year, TX jumped 4 pts to 219 so we need a 3 pt drop. Gonna be a long 7 months of waiting. Looks like she may miss it by 1 or 2, ugh…</p>
<p>Well yeah there are some schools who will give you money, but if those schools aren’t on your college list then a full scholarship to them doesn’t mean much. I didn’t apply to a single one of those colleges. You look at most top tier schools and they get so many nmsf kids apply that it’d be ridiculous to pay full ride.</p>
<p>Of course - obviously everyone has a different list of college choices. And most of the most elite schools don’t give any merit aid. But many, many families may re-assess that list when a full scholarship is on the table. And it’s a long list of schools offering significant money including many offering beyond a full ride. So yeah, NMF can absolutely get your college completely paid for if that is important to you. Good for you that you didn’t need it or want it. But to many families it’s a very big deal. The prestige of being an NMF is also a big deal, even in the adult world it is impressive to hear of someone who achieved it.</p>
<p>NMF carries prestige, sure, but NMSF is pretty common, at least at my school. Seven kids in my first period class were NMSF. That’s just my class period, there were more in different periods too. I’m just saying it’s not the end of the world if 221 is below the cut off. </p>
<p>As you said, many top tier schools don’t offer merit aid (rightfully so, considering practically everyone admitted is academically gifted), but they do offer need-based aid. Make less than 60k, you pay no tuition and room/board. Make less than 100k and you pay no tuition. Money shouldn’t be a limiting factor, and if your family really is financially burdened then there are other ways to pay for it. No point in worrying about whether or not you’ll make the cut off for NMSF, it’ll all work out.</p>
<p>I also got a 221 on my PSAT in California, but I do not see my “state percentile”. Are they even released to us?</p>
<p>Sorry everyone. I thought for sure that the score report included both the national percentile and state percentile for your selection index. Ive just confirmed that is doesnt. So the best you can do is what squidge did and see how your state performed relative to the national percentiles. (And squidge, you are right that the 99th percentile cutoff for Texas must be lower than 211 this year.) Unfortunately theres no way that I can think of to convert the percentiles from individual section scores into a percentile for the combined selection index (unless someone much more adept at statistics than I can derive an algorithm using the publicly available national data). So Ill have to go back to the drawing board on this one.</p>
<p>Sorry for the late reply, but I received a 222 on my PSAT and I am from southern California. My Percentile read 99! Good Luck!</p>