I would simply suggest sending kid to the best school you can afford. How you define “best” is entirely up to you/kid. Lot of fit issues typically go into that.
Virtually impossible to quantify because you’ll never know how your kid would have done elsewhere. So much of it is random. What classes did they take? Which professors did they have? What clubs did they join. What network did they form? What opportunities did they take advantage of?
If you identify your “best” AND your kid is accepted AND you can afford it, why wouldn’t you pay for it? Assuming you place things in tiers (which may or may not make sense), why wouldn’t you choose a higher tier?
Sorry for being so logical in what is a very emotional topic.