<p>Ok, this is in no way meant to be rude. These are just legitimate questions I've had ever since I discovered the "What Are My Chances?" threads here on CC.</p>
<p>1)If you post super high stats and ask about Ivies/Top Tiers, what do you honestly expect to hear? Because those are a reach for anybody, so there's nothing that can really be said...</p>
<p>2)How can juniors assume they are a NMF or NMSF? Don't we get the results back for SF in September of this year?</p>
<p>3) People always write "I'LL CHANCE BACK!!!1!1!" So in that case, you are admitting/assuming (almost always correctly) that those chancing you are also in a position of applying/preparing to apply to college. How is it that high school seniors/juniors/sophomores can be trusted to tell you your chances at schools that have acceptance rates of less than 30%? Also, they are your "competition" in most cases, so sometimes they could purposely put you down/suggest that you not apply somewhere...</p>
<p>4)Technically, your personal chances at any school are either 100% or 0% (well, there's always that little grey area with deferral/waitlist, but whatever). So really, you won't know whether it was an 100% chance or 0% until you get that letter back in the mail. So wouldn't chance threads just cause:
a) Unnecessary stress/depression if you get bad feedback?
AND/OR
b) False hope if everyone throws compliments at you?</p>
<p>Again, this was not meant to be rude. I'm just completely and seriously curious about all of the above.</p>
<p>I think these threads are mainly just to get some feedback. I posted one earlier today, not because I expect anyone to actually tell me 100% if I’ll get in or not. But everyone can strengthen their application in some way or another. I’m not sure what I should be focusing on, or what an admissions person will see and like/dislike about my grades, course load, extracurriculars, etc. I would personally feel more confident if I got multiple other opinions on my chances and what more I should be doing.</p>
<p>I don’t know about AU, GW, and GU admissions as much as many CC probably do, so I’d honestly appreciate their opinions. I generally feel <em>less</em> stressed/depressed about these types of situations if I have discussed it with both peers and those that know these colleges’ admissions process better than I do myself. If I don’t, I feel less prepared. That isn’t necessarily true, but I am an analyzer, and I feel calmer when I have discussed whatever I’m unsure about with other people.</p>
<p>Just my two cents, other people post for diff reasons :)</p>
<p>I posted a chances thread because I wanted to get opinions and viewpoints from people who don’t know me personally and who aren’t kind of clueless about college admissions. (“You took 10 APs this year? You don’t need to worry about college!”)</p>
<p>Even though I have relatively high grades and scores, I have mediocre ECs (especially lacking in sports, leadership, and community service) and recs. That isn’t really seen much on CC, so I wanted to see how people might evaluate that, because I couldn’t find many profiles of people without club officer/class president/varsity team/hundreds of community service hours/other typical ECs. Of course, the knowledge of this forum’s members can only go so far, but constructive comments can be helpful in figuring out how to balance a list.</p>
<p>Oh, and if you have a PSAT score above, say, 225 or 230, then you’re pretty much guaranteed NMSF.</p>
<p>@energize Thanks. And yeah sometimes you can assume for NMSF, but how could any junior assume to be a finalist? I’ve seen at least a dozen do that…</p>
<p>It’s probably because 90% of SFs get to become Finalists. And for the 10% that don’t make it, it’s usually because of not filling in forms, bad GPA, not high enough SAT (which usually means the person cheated on the PSAT), etc. So although it is presumptuous, barring stupid mistakes, Finalist status considered “obvious” for those with PSAT > 225 or whatever.</p>
<p>Where did you see that 90% of SF becomes Finalists? I’m not implying this is false, but just wondering if that is a credited statistic. I’ve never looked it up so I wouldn’t know.</p>
<p>I know a few semifinalists with 220+ PSATS, 2250+ SATs, and ~4.0s who filled out the forms but didn’t make finalist. But I guess maybe that’s just them…</p>
<p>I’ve used a chance thread to find out what more I could be doing. For example, I’m interested in technology and Compsci so without a chances thread, I would’ve never gotten some of the ideas to show my passion. Some suggestions I received were great, such as teaching myself new Compsci languages or trying out for specific competitions, etc. Also, having chances threads do help a little; for example, some people can’t afford to send more than a couple applications so they don’t want to waste money in applying where they’ve got virtually no chance.</p>
<p>I don’t post on chance threads for others, mostly because I’m only a freshman in high school (for 10 more days!!), but I like to read them and just see what other highschoolers are doing.</p>
<p>Oh I agree with you, and that’s certainly the purpose of the board-- and how it’s most often used-- but sometimes certain people’s threads make me scratch my head with curiosity. Like when they post stats and ask if they have a “really good chance” at the Ivys/Top Tiers. Or when they take to heart when someone tells them not to apply (like the advice of a fellow student on CC is reason enough not to apply to where they were hoping for). Or when they post amazingly perfect stats and ask what they can do “better.”</p>
<p>If you get a high enough score on the PSAT, you are assured of being a NMSF. The highest the cutoff for NMSF has ever been is around 220, so if you get a 230+ you are essentially guaranteed NMSF. If you get a 240 on the PSAT, since there is no way you can do better, you will be a NMSF. Thus, I can state with <em>absolute</em> certainty that I am a NMSF. Next, it is easy to get to NMF from NMSF- if you actually complete the required steps properly- so people with high enough PSAT scores can also assume that they will get NMF.</p>
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<p>You clearly don’t understand probability. The chance of an event occurring is measured before it occurs. Obviously, once they have made the decision, the chance is either 100% or 0%. However, before they make the decision, there IS chance involved- which partially explains why some kids with poorer all-round stats get in over others with superior stats.</p>
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<p>College board says that about 15000 of the 16000 Semifinalists become finalists.</p>
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<p>You know “a few”? That’s pretty unlikely, either their counselor recommendations were horrendous, or their essays were (or both). (The process does involve essays and recs right? I’m not completely sure)</p>
<p>@bobtheboy No need to be rude. No one has so far, so why start now?</p>
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<p>I’m not an idiot; I understand probability. But as per a certain person, if you listen to adcoms, they all say they can tell pretty quickly if someone is a yes or a no. And it’s not chance on their part so much as they are looking for a specific something/someone. So if you fit perfectly for what they are looking for at that time, you have a 100% chance or getting in. If they are looking for something and you really aren’t it, you have a 0%. So yeah, I get it.</p>
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<p>A few = 3. So yes, I know 3 who didn’t get it, who had all filled in paperwork. I wasn’t being argumentative, I was just stating what I knew. I never checked how many semifinalists become finalists.</p>
<p>Hmm I would disagree with this. I don’t think college admissions are as simple as perfect fit, imperfect fit, 100% chance, 0% chance. It’s all a balance of grades and recs and essays and ECs and awards and special circumstances. Of course, there are certain 0% chances, like a -1250 SAT score and a 1.3 GPA. But what if the standard is a community service oriented person with an average SAT score and an average GPA? Someone dedicated to community service with a bit-less-than-average SAT score and a bit-more-than-average GPA applies, and another person dedicated to community service with a bit-more-than-average SAT score and a bit-less-than-average GPA applies. I don’t think you could really qualify that as an 100% chance or 0% chance situation.</p>
<p>Some college admissions may have the attitude of “this is specifically what we want, and anyone different just doesn’t cut it” attitude, but that isn’t something I believe you could generalize. There are always varying degrees of likelihood that a candidate will make it. And maybe he would one year, and not the next year, simply because the “threshold” changed. And as the desire for diversity grows larger and larger, I think many colleges are making more of an effort to avoid only accepting one type of person.</p>
<p>When did I say you were being argumentative?</p>
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<p>Well, some officers on the committee might say “yes” to a particular student while others say “no;” it’s a majority decision so it depends on how much the particular group of officers that reviews your file likes you.</p>
<p>@serenen Yes, but everything you stated could only be known by someone in the room making the decisions for that particular school. Not by any person on CC. That’s the main point I’ve been trying to make all along. I think it’s fine if people want to utilize the chance board, otherwise it never would have been created, but more and more I see examples of people either getting false hope (e.g. being told they have an “awesome” shot at a bunch of schools and later posting that they didn’t get into a single one of them) or unneeded stress and negativity (e.g. being told their chances are so dismal they need not bother to apply, only to later actually make it into that university and even some that are considered better).</p>
<p>To answer the OP’s question, there are enough informed posters giving opinions that misleading help is usually checked. Inevitably, false advice appears, but one always takes that risk when asking for help to a bunch of the anonymous masses. The only issue is that the people asking for chances are not entirely reliant on CC opinions – that would be dangerous.</p>
<p>@born2dance94 Really, that doesn’t matter. It still isn’t an 100% vs. 0% probability here. CC’ers don’t know what the admission committees are thinking – but, they can still make educated comments based on analysis of previous years. People can still receive chance estimates that are more accurate than not knowing anything at all.</p>
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<p>I don’t think it is fair to use this as the measurement of chance-response accuracy. If everyone tells one person they’ll get in somewhere and they don’t, that person is more likely to return to the thread and point out that they were wrong. If everyone tells one person they won’t get in somewhere and they do, that person is also likely to return to the thread and point out that they were wrong. However, if the chance predictions are accurate, there is less of a “need” to return to the thread, since there is nothing to correct/fix. In my thread, people seem to think I will get into American and GW. If I don’t, I’ll probably come back and let people know, to help any future analysis of the 2012 college acceptances. If I do get in, why would I come back? I have no new information to bring to the table, and I doubt anyone who posted on my thread is truly emotionally involved in my college acceptances.</p>
<p>I do understand what you’re saying; false hope and ridiculous negativity are bad. But the number of constructive posts that give chances generally determined by previous years, pointers on what to improve upon, and additional information far outweigh the posts you are talking about, at least from what I have seen.</p>