<p>Hi,</p>
<p>How are the private schools that are not Ivy or top-tier figuring out how many accepted students will actually show up? As opposed to parents telling them you have to go to public school? Are they trying to figure out who really doesnt need financial aid?</p>
<p>Almost all schools - public, private, first, second and third-tier - have something called enrollment or yield management in place. This is based on many years of admission information for their specific school. This means that they accept a firm number of students based an equation of experience.</p>
<p>For example if a school wants to start out with 500 freshman, and they know historically that only 50% of the students they admit will attend, they would accept a total of 1000. This gives them their projected 'yield rate.'</p>
<p>When they are wrong, they typically make up for it the following year.
For example if they want to start out with 500 freshman and accept 1000, but instead 600 send in deposits, during the following year they would both downwardly adjust the total acceptance number (800 instead of 1000), as well as the starting freshman number (450 instead of 500). At this point they will also look at trends for their school. Have they become more popular? Are there more students in general? Will the trend continue, or did they just miscalculate?</p>
<p>Remember also that most admissions goal numbers are based on academic capacity, expected attrition, and in the case of many LAC's, the number of 'beds.' For the most part, financial aid does not enter into this part of their overall number goals.</p>
<p>Hop, thank you. What I trying to ask, is do admissions people think this year will be vastly different from prior years? Will many students be applying to private schools, and then even if accepted shifting to public schools? Is there a population that even if they want private schools, just can not come up with the money, and can no longer borrow? Again, I am not talking re the top tier schools.</p>
<p>There is no real administrative consensus re: yield rates this year. It is supposed that there will be many more students applying to MORE schools, both private and public, to see what type of aid they get. Many states are claiming higher application rates already. The common thought is that many more students will accept places in-state because on finances.
Unfortunately, there is no real way (or crystal ball...) to predict true numbers until after the entire process is over.</p>
<p>A major tool in enrollment management is the waitlist. They will probably accept the historical number and may have to go deeper into the list than usual.</p>
<p>And yes, non need blind colleges may well be accepting more full pays this year.</p>